2012 - Page 56 of 114 - Last Word On Sports

English Footballers Round-up: Bale and Carroll

Posted on July 31, 2012November 5, 2021 by Michael Kovacs, ADMIN

Right, it’s Tuesday and most of the world’s eyes are locked on London. Not for football, really, for the Olympics. Yes, of course there is football to be played, but there is a whole lot going on off the pitch to discuss. So, let’s take a look at what’s making headlines regarding some of England’s Senior players.

Who knows what will end up happening with Andy Carroll. Not so long ago I wrote about how I think he is going to end up on the wrong side of the river if he stays in Liverpool, given the direction I believe their manager will take this year (ball-control, with a LOT of pace). Therefore, it comes as no shock that we are hearing rumours (that is all they are until all the I’s are dotted and T’s crossed – and we all know how long that can take in football) of a deal struck between Liverpool and West Ham.

West Ham have reportedly agreed to pay £2 million for the loan, with an additional £17 million for a permanent move, provided the London club can avoid relegation. So long as they stay in the Premier League for the 2013-14 season, they would be obligated to pay the £17 million transfer fee. Mr. Carroll is not particularly fond of the idea of leaving Anfield to play for the Hammers. He has openly claimed he would much rather return to his former club, Newcastle, than play for WHU. Sorry, but at this point it’s not about what you want. That is football, Andy, deal with it.

Newcastle are apparently very interested, but the problem with going back to play for Newcastle is they will not be able to afford his £80,000 wages, whereas West Ham just might.

Gareth Bale made headlines of the weekend as he was spotted limping around the Eastern USA on crutches. Apparently Charlie Adam, Liverpool midfielder, was absent for the days where he supposed to have been shown how to properly tackle. Either that or he really, really does not like Gareth. My bet’s on the latter.

Said Bale, “He’s a bit of a coward. What he did was over the top. Some people are like that and it’s just wrong.”

This wasn’t the first run-in Bale and Adam have “enjoyed”. Back in May of 2011, Adam committed his first bad tackle on the Welsh international, sidelining him for three months with damaged ligaments. Bale explains, “He’s come for me twice now – and he’s got me twice. When someone makes a very bad tackle on you, you expect an apology. I’ve had no apology. And I’m not going to accept his apology.”

The match, which ended scoreless much to the dismay of anyone who made it through watching the contest, was a “friendly” played in Baltimore between Spurs and L’pool.

There you have it, just a quick bit of news.

Until tomorrow, lads.

Countdown to MLB Trade Deadline, Part 2: Players on the Market

Posted on July 30, 2012November 5, 2021 by Max Warner

In part 2 of our series leading-up to the MLB Trade Deadline, we take a look at a few of the players who may be changing their address on July 31. I’ve also been bold enough to include some of my predictions for these players.

Part 1 featured a look at the moves already made and is found here.

Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs

The Canadian power pitcher is having a phenomenal season with the Cubs, posting a 2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 7.2 K’s/9 in 16 starts. Dempster is 35 years old and a free agent at the end of the season, and with the Cubs being 16 games under .500 and well out of contention, Dempster will almost certainly be dealt at the deadline. Demptster’s is owed the balance of his $14 million salary this year, which will make him an unaffordable rental for all but the richest clubs. The Cubs will be looking to get a decent pitcher or position player to continue their endless rebuild, pieces which Boston can provide without severely altering their roster. Prediction: Dempster to the Red Sox for Mauro Gomez or Felix Doubront.

Josh Johnson, Miami

Once Jeffrey Loria dusted off the clear out signs, covered up the French wording from his time in Montreal and scratched out the old ‘Florida Marlins’ logo from his discount bin days at Joe Robbie Stadium, and traded Hanley Ramirez, the J.J. trade rumours began to spread. Johnson is posting a 4.04 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 21 starts, but has tremendous stuff and has a very recent history of success (2.65 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.6 K’s/9 from 2009-2011). He is also owed a tremendous amount of money next year ($13.75 million), and the struggling Fish would desperately love to unload his contract. Miami is reportedly asking for several blue chip prospects in return, and this price may be too high to get a deal done. Prediction: Johnson stays in Miami, only to be traded in the offseason or sometime next year.

Shane Victorino, Philadelphia

After a very productive 7 seasons, Victorino’s time in Philly appears to be nearing an end. Victorino will be a free agent at season’s end, and his .724 OPS, although decent for a center fielder, is the lowest mark ever in his Phillies career. Top prospect Domonic Brown now has 91 career games under his belt in the Show, and is ready to take over in center. Philly is last in the NL East and will be looking to acquire a minor asset for Victorino, who will be targeted by a contender looking for a defensive and offensive upgrade in center. The Nationals are a logical fit. Prediction: Victorino to Washington for a minor- leaguer.

Yunel Escobar, Toronto

Rumours have been swirling about Escobar heading to a contending team, possibly the Athletics. Escobar is having a down year (.255 Avg, .650 OPS), but the fact that he is a shortstop with a career OPS of .751 and is under contract (with team options) for the next three years at the very reasonable price of $5 million per year will make him attractive to low-budget contenders like Oakland or Pittsburgh. However, Escobar is known to be a streaky player who had attitude problems during his time in Atlanta. Oakland has a plethora of good young pitchers to offer in a deal, something that Toronto will insist upon in any trade for their shortstop. Prediction: Escobar to the A’s in exchange for a starting pitcher.

Chase Headley, San Diego

Headley’s name continues to be mentioned in various trade rumours, despite the fact that he is under team control until possibly 2015 and is making a modest $3.475 million this year. Headley is having a career year with 12 homeruns and a. 786 OPS this year. His 2.82 RF/9 is also second-best among NL third basemen. The 43-60 Padres desperately need to get an impact bat or pitcher to further their rebuild. With A-Rod out for up to eight weeks and with Eric Chavez’s wonky back preventing him from playing third on a regular basis, the Yankees could use Headley this year and into the future, as A-Rod’s declining defence means that he is destined for full-time DH duty soon. Prediction: Headley to the Yankees for minor-leaguer Corban Joseph and other pieces.

Josh Hamilton, Texas

At the beginning of the year, it seemed unthinkable that Hamilton could be traded. But despite smashing 28 homeruns this year to go with a .929 OPS, Rangers management felt the need to call out Hamilton after a very poor July (.141 Avg., 3 homeruns). Hamilton is also a free agent this year, and will be expecting a raise on his $13.75 million salary. Because the Rangers are in the thick of the playoff race and because Hamilton is such a huge star, the price tag for him will be too astronomical for a player who could walk as a free agent at season’s end. Prediction: Hamilton stays with the Rangers to help lead them to another division title, and possibly another appearance in the World Series.

B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay

Upton is suffering through yet another underwhelming season, posting a .689 OPS with just 18 steals in 86 games. Upton has all the talent in the world, but his attitude and effort have been problematic throughout his career. Upton is a free agent this year, and the cash-strapped Rays won’t be willing to pay anything close to his current $9 million salary for this kind of production. The Rays have Desmond Jennings waiting to take over in center, but they are in the middle of a playoff race and won’t trade Upton unless they get a very decent return. Prediction: Upton stays in Tampa, only to walk as a free agent at season’s end.

Some other, less significant names likely to be on the move tomorrow include Boston pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Phillies’ pitcher Joe Blanton, both free agents at the end of the year. I predict that Blanton will land with the Orioles to help bolster their anemic pitching staff for the stretch run.

…and that’s the Last Word.

Top Shelf Prospects: Colorado Avalanche

Posted on July 30, 2012November 5, 2021 by Ben Kerr

Welcome to today’s edition of “Top Shelf Prospects” a team by team look at the top prospects in the NHL. Today, as I continue my alphabetical journey through the NHL I bring you a look at the Colorado Avalanche. As always you can find a complete listing of my previous articles here. Since we had an extensive NHL Draft preview, I will not be reviewing the players who were drafted in the 2012 draft, as there have been no games since then, and my reports on them will not have changed. What I will be doing is linking you to those articles, as well as taking a look at prospects that were acquired before this year’s draft; their progress, and their chances of making the 2012-13 roster of the NHL team in question. I will also bring you one sleeper pick. A player who was either drafted in the 4th round or later, or was an undrafted free agent signing who I pick as my darkhorse to make the NHL. For those asking the cut off for what is or isn’t a prospect is typically about 45-50 NHL games played or being 25 years old. These are not hard or fast rules though, and I may make some exceptions depending on the circumstances.

2012 NHL Draft Prospect Reviews:
Troy Bourke

Top Prospect: Stefan Elliot, Defenceman
Born Jan 30 1991 — Vancouver, BC
Height 6.01 — Weight 180 — Shoots Right
Selected by the Colorado Avalanche in round 2, #49 overall of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.

With Elliott playing in 39 games last season for the Avalanche I debated even including him as a prospect. He acquitted himself very well at the NHL level and I believe he will start next season with the big club. However given his age, and the way he really flew under the radar of the mainstream hockey media, I felt it fair to give him a detailed look today. Elliott had a Stellar junior career with the Saskatoon Blades of the WHL. With 241 career points at the WHL level Elliott became Saskatoon’s all-time leader for points by a defenceman. He finished his career with a particularly stellar 2010-11 campaign which saw him record 31 goals and 81 points in 71 games, and be named the WHL Defenceman of the year.

Elliott has an excellent combination of offensive skills that make him a prime candidate to quarterback the Colorado power play in the near future. He is extremely skilled with the puck on his stick and shows the patience and puck control to beat defenders one on one. He is extremely intelligent with the puck, possessing a high level hockey IQ, which helps him to make the right play more often than not. Elliott has great vision and when he finds an open teammate, he is able to fire a crisp tape to tape pass to set up a scoring opportunity. Elliott also has a hard slapshot, and he is able to walk the line and avoid shot blockers, and create shooting lanes. His low accurate shot not only results in goals for Elliott but in tip ins and rebound opportunities for team mates.

Elliott is a decent skater despite lacking top end speed. He still possesses good agility and balance, and decent mobility on the backend which allows him to play his defensive game that relies more on instinct and positioning than physicality. Elliott is not a big hitter and needs to add some upper body strength as he can be beaten by bigger forwards on the cycle game. However his good hockey sense, excellent positioning and quick stick work help to make him an effective defender. His quick passing ability starts the offence and helps to avoid his team relieve pressure in the offensive zone.

Given the NHL experience that Elliott was able to get under his belt last season, it would surprise few observers if he started next season in Colorado.

#2 Prospect Duncan Siemens, Defence
Born Sep 7 1993 — Sherwood Park, ALTA
Height 6.03 — Weight 192 — Shoots Left
Selected by the Colorado Avalanche round 1 #11 overall in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.

Siemens is a rugged defender who had a bit of a disappointing season in 2011-12. After an impressive 2010-11 season that saw Siemens rocket up draft boards and be selected 11th overall by the Avalanche, his numbers regressed in 2011-12. The significant time Siemens missed this year after suffering a concussion was a cause for the down season. Siemens returned and finished the season playing very well on a depleted Saskatoon blue line.

At over 6’3 and nearly 200lbs, Siemens has an impressive frame. He could however stand to pack on a few additional pounds of muscle onto that frame. At the WHL level Siemens is a rough and tumble customer feared around the league best known for his ability to throw a devastating hit, and to drop the gloves when necessary. Siemens is an excellent defender who is capable of playing physical, winning battles along the boards, clearing the front of the net, blocking shots, making a good first pass to start the transition game.

Siemens is a very good skater, especially for a player his size. His smooth stride, excellent pivots, and good agility and balance help him to be rarely out of position. He has shown the ability to stick with forwards in his own zone and is very difficult to beat off the rush. He also has shown some ability to make good decisions and solid passing skills at the WHL level, however it remains to be seen if this offence can translate to the AHL and NHL level.

Siemens wast Stefan Elliott’s defence partner in Saskatoon in the 2010-11 season (Siemens’ draft year). The Avalanche obviously liked what they saw taking him with the 11th overall pick in the draft. Siemens tough, gritty style made him the perfect complement to Elliott in junior, and the Avalanche certainly hope he will one day become the ying to Stefan’s yang at the NHL level. For now though one should expect Siemens to start the season back in Saskatoon in the WHL. With Saskatoon hosting the Memorial Cup this season, Siemens is looking to lead the host team to junior hockey’s biggest prize.

Super Sleeper, Brad Malone, Centre
Born May 20 1989 — Miramichi, NB
Height 6.01 — Weight 207 — Shoots Left
Selected by the Colorado Avalanche round 4 #105 overall in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft

Malone is a rugged NHL forward who played in 9 games for the Avalanche last season recording the first two assists of his NHL career. He is a hard working, agitating type of player. He is hard on the forecheck and the backcheck and can often be found right in the middle of many scrums in front of the Avs or the opponents net.

Malone has a never say die mentality. He continues to work hard at both ends of the ice on every given shift no matter what the score or situation. He had a great NCAA career and North Dakota, and has played solidly for Lake Erie in the AHL. However given his lack of high end scoring instincts and soft hands it is doubtful that he’ll ever be an impact player in an NHL top 6 role. He does possess good defensive awareness and his non-stop work ethic could mean he makes major contributions on the Avalanche’s bottom two lines. He quite simply is willing to do whatever it takes to win, whether that be block shots, or drop the gloves to stick up for teammates. Malone is a decent sized player and one who uses that size to his throw his body around at both ends of the ice. It should also be noted that Malone is the cousin of current NHLer and member of Tampa Bay Lightning Ryan Malone.

The Avalanche have spent a number of years rebuilding their club after the glory years of the late 90s and early 00s ended. Gone are legends like Joe Sakic, Patrick Roy, Peter Forsberg, Adam Foote, and Rob Blake. In recent years a new crew of young stars has emerged and taken over as the faces of the Avalanche franchise. The club now features a very young team that is learning and growing together. Colorado has built a nice prospect system, and have a lot of depth in the pipeline, especially on defence where we can add players like Cameron Gaunce and Tyson Barrie to those already reviewed. It might appear right now that they currently lack high end prospects. Sure, Stefan Elliot, and Duncan Siemens are talented defenceme but its true they do not really compare to some of the top prospects of many other NHL teams. This is not a criticism though, as the lack of a top-end blue chip prospect is easily explained when we look at all the young talent that has graduated to the NHL and is currently on the Avalanche roster. Colorado has a young high end core of NHL talent in players like Calder Trophy winner Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene, Semyon Varlamov, Erik Johnson, and Ryan O’Reilly already on their big league squad. The challenge for GM Greg Sherman will be adding a piece or two to complete this core and then continuing to surround it with quality depth.

One really intriguing player to watch for the Avalanche going forward is centre Joey Hishon. The 2010 first round pick is a talented centre who helped lead the Owen Sound Attack to the 2011 OHL Championship and qualification for the Memorial Cup. Unfortunately he suffered a devastating concussion on a dirty hit in the first game of the tournament and has not played since, missing all of last season. Hishon has apparently been cleared to resume full time training and if he can fully recover the undersized but extremely gifted forward could certainly make an NHL impact in the Avalanche’s top 6 (either at centre or with a shift to wing).

Feel free to leave your comments below and follow me on twitter @LastWordBKerr.

Rick Nash's Impact on NY Rangers

Posted on July 29, 2012November 5, 2021 by Maksim Vasilyev

My favorite acquisition of the summer is the move made by the New York Rangers. They obtained Rick Nash via trade with Columbus Blue Jackets. The Rick Nash saga started way back in January when he asked for a trade from the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The Rangers were the heavy favorites to win the Nash derby, but the trade deadline deal never came to pass as the Columbus camp demanded too lofty of a price. The rumors and trade talks continued over the summer with the deal finally being reached last week.

On Monday July 23rd, a simple tweet by Darren Dreger broke the news – the Columbus Blue Jackets trade Rick Nash, a conditional 3rd round pick (if the Rangers make the Cup final, the pick goes back to Columbus) and a minor leaguer, Steve Delisle, for forwards Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, defense prospect Tim Erixon, and a first round pick. Columbus fans, we feel for ya.

So what impact does this trade have on the New York Rangers?

The New York Rangers were one of the best defensive teams in the league last season. They developed a great young shut-down tandem in Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi. The duo rarely showed any cracks during the regular season or the playoffs, while leading the team in ice time.The entire team bought into Tortorella’s shot blocking, defense-first play style. When you add to this formula a Vezina winning goalie (a very handsome one at that), Henrik Lundqvist, you have a team that challenged Vancouver for the President trophy till the very end and went all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals

So why not a cup run? What was missing?

Rick Nash, that’s what. The Rangers lacked the offensive punch, the peppers on their sausages, the vodka in their martini, the solo in a Metallica song – you know what I’m saying? Even with Marian Gaborik who was nursing a shoulder injury, they only managed to score three or more goals in seven out of their 20 playoff games. Brad Richards and Ryan Callahan had 6 goals each, while 40-goal scorer Gaborik had 5, the same amount as rookie Chris Kreider. Again, this is with 20 games played, well, if we are honest, that is rubbish. Prorated over 82 games, it equates to a 25 goal season for Richards and Callahan, 21 goals for Gaborik. There was a major lack of secondary scoring from the bottom six players and the only way they made it as far as they did was Henrik being Henrik.

Fun fact: Dubinsky had 0 goals and only 2 points in 20 playoff games. (Do not give me jiff that he had a defensive role, supposedly top 6 forwards have to score)

So why would Rick Nash make a difference? Well, as I mentioned before, he needs a high-quality center to play with to be successful. Rick is one of those rare breeds of hockey players that can score more goals than assists (289 Goals and 258 Assists). He can already score by himself, so only playing with a creative and talented center would raise his game. Someone cue Brad Richards, please. Richards helped turn Ryan Callahan into a 29 goal scorer, so imagine what he might do for Nash’s numbers (Fantasy value = sky-high). Remember the numbers that Brad, Vincent Lecavalier, and St.Louis line put up? I think that is what we are looking at here.

Rick Nash is built for the current NHL. He is 6’4″ and 216 pounds and has the speed to carry that frame around defensemen like they are silly traffic cones. His mitts are as soft as a peep when it comes to tucking the biscuit in the basket. Sadly, he has been stashed away at the bottom of the NHL standings for most of his career in Columbus, so I do not know how familiar a common Ranger fan is with him. His impact will be immediate on a team desperate for goals. The improved offense should help Henrik Lundqvist. He has been the back bone that has been keeping Rangers relevant in a highly competitive Atlantic division for a few years now. With Richards, Gaborik and Nash, Glen Sather has finally been able to field a potent offense in front of him.

The biggest advantage that Rick Nash gives the Rangers is the ability to roll two scoring lines. I would imagine Brad Richards, Rick Nash, and Callahan would make up the first line. Derek Stepan, Marian Gaborik, and Chris Kreider would make up the second unit. I am not sure if Carl Hagelin will see some top 6 minutes instead of Kreider, but anytime you can throw out two lines with potential 40 goals scorers, it must make you feel awfully confident. Nash is a good player for Torts, as Nash will do anything to win, plus he has excellent work ethic, one of Tortorella’s favorite qualities. One could see the Rangers play open up a bit with stretch passes through the neutral zone and become more of a puck possession team, instead of always playing dump and chase.

I would not put it past Rick Nash to take over the scoring lead in New York. There could be an adjustment period, especially with Gabby being out of the lineup as he will be recovering from a shoulder injury for the first few months, but look for Nash to lead this team offensively. There is doubt among some Ranger fans that I have spoken to. They doubt him because he only had 59 points last year and he only has four playoff games under his belt. They doubt him due to the size of his paycheck and lack of winning that he has delivered in Columbus. But to me they only doubt him because they do not get to see him play (fix this NHL) as often as they should. His new home arena is built for stars like him. The Garden mob is a fickle beast and can turn on players rather quickly. Nash will give them goals and they will love him for it. A Stanley Cup? And they will worship him.

Do you believe in Rick Nash?

Follow me on Twitter – @maximus91

Obligatory Nash highlights:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKUsFdZanZY&w=560&h=315]

Countdown to MLB Trade Deadline Part 1: The Deals Already Done

Posted on July 29, 2012November 5, 2021 by Max Warner

As the MLB non-waiver trade deadline is just two days away, I will be doing a three-part series on the lead up to the big day. Today, we are going to look at the deals which have been completed in the past couple of days and how they impact the playoff picture and the clubs still browsing the trade market.

The ‘Big’ Deals

Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers

The semi-annual Jeffrey Loria fire sale is officially underway, as the Marlins shipped superstar third baseman (nee shortstop) Hanley Ramirez and reliever Randy Choate to the Dodgers for pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough on July 25. Ramirez is currently batting only .252 with 15 homeruns, but he has a career OPS of .875 with 231 stolen bases. Although he is defensively challenged, HanRam is an offensive superstar who can hit for power and average, has tremendous speed, and is only three years removed from winning the NL batting title. If Ramirez can get his hitting back on track, he will help improve the NL’s fifth worst offense (3.94 runs per game, 2^nd fewest homeruns), provide protection for Matt Kemp and help the Dodgers push for the playoffs. L.A. also gets Choate, a situational lefty who can be counted on to get tough left-handed hitters out during the stretch run.

With 2 years and $31.5 million left on his contract, the Marlins will save a lot of money by dumping Ramirez. The financial situation in Miami was desperate; after boosting their payroll to $118 million this year, Miami is 2^nd last in the NL East and is averaging only 76% capacity attendance at their new park.

Eovaldi has put up some good numbers (2.74 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.4 SO/9) in AA, but has struggled in 21 appearances in the Majors. He should be a young, cost-effective member of the Marlins’ staff and could even blossom into a #3 starter. McGough is a young reliever in Single-A ball with unremarkable stats, and looks like he may never make the Show. It is still shocking that the Marlins were willing to move such a supreme talent for such a low price. The second place Dodgers are just one game behind the division-leading Giants and will be buying on deadline day, as their new ownership is clearly committed to spending money and making the playoffs.

Zack Greinke to the Angels

The Angels acquired Zack Greinke on July 27 for three minor-leaguers, as L.A. clearly felt the need to add another weapon to their pitching staff. The Angels have been passed by Oakland and are holding the second wildcard spot by only 1.5 games. Greinke is a great young pitcher, but he is not among the game’s elite. So much focus is placed on Greinke’s huge strikeout totals, but this is a pitcher who posted a 1.20 WHIP during 1.5 seasons in the weak NL Central. Aside from his breakout 2009 campaign, Greinke has posted numbers which belong to a #3 starter (career 3.79 ERA and 1.25 WHIP); the good news is that he is going to be a number 3 starter behind Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson in L.A.

The Angels didn’t give up much to get Greinke: Ariel Pena is having a good season in AA (sub-3.00 ERA, 8.7 K’s/9) and is a year or two away from being a mid-rotation starter in the Majors, while John Hellweg’s numbers in AA (3.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 6.6 K’s/9) suggest that his future is as a fifth starter or long reliever. Milwaukee also got Jean Segura, a speedy, contact-hitting middle infielder in AA, who looks like nothing more than a future bench player.

Greinke is a free agent at season’s end, so this is a cheap rental by the Angels to try to push them into the playoffs. However, his addition is not going to be enough to help the Halos win the NL West. The Angels need to boost their offence and not their rotation, as they already boast the AL’s second-best team ERA (4.00), but their hitting attack (4.5 runs/game) is barely above the AL average. The Halos have deep pockets, so look for them to add a big bat or two at the deadline to complement their outstanding pitching staff.

The Not-so-Big Deals

Sanchez and Infante to the Tigers

The first dip into the Marlins’ clear-out bin actually occurred on July 23, when Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante were scooped by Detroit for three minor leaguers. If you look at Sanchez’s last four seasons with the Marlins (cumulative 3.76 ERA, 8.1 K’s/9), is there that much separating this guy from Zack Greinke? Despite these stats, Sanchez makes $5.5 million less per season than Greinke for no conceivable reason other than that he is not loved (or known) by the media the same way Greinke is. Sanchez gives up a ton of hits, but he should be an effective third or fourth starter as the Tigers try to make-up 2.5 games on the AL Central leading White Sox. Infante returns to the Tigers, where his career .713 OPS and his defensive prowess will make him the new starting second baseman.

The Marlins Discount Store receives AA pitcher Brian Flynn and AAA catcher Rob Brantly, neither of whom will be anything more than roster filler in the Show. The Fish also get 21 year old pitcher Jacob Turner, who has a 3.07 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 14 Triple-A starts, and looks like he might have a future with Ariel Pena in the back of the Marlins’ rotation.

Liriano to the White Sox

On Saturday, the White Sox “bolstered” their rotation by trading bench player Eduardo Escobar and a minor league pitcher to the Twins for Francisco Liriano. The only nice thing I can say about Liriano is that I once drafted him in my fantasy baseball pool. He was just as useless in fantasy baseball as he is in real life. But when you strike out nearly a batter per inning, big league clubs will continue to give you chances even when you have posted a combined 1.47 WHIP and 5.20 ERA over the past two seasons. Chicago may actually be the only team which has gotten worse as the result of adding a player via trade.

Part 2 of this series will tomorrow discuss some of the players who are on the trade market.

…and that’s the last word.

Cash Explosion: The Real Value of this Summer's Biggest NHL Signings

Posted on July 29, 2012November 5, 2021 by Maksim Vasilyev

There have been some controversial dollars handed out this off-season to players. Both fans and the media have been critical of the contracts that some GM’s have handed to players who may or may not have deserved them. This criticism was based on things like offensive production, age, and history of the players. I am guilty of this as well – giving grief to some teams for overpaying to get players that, from the outside, do not seem to be worth it. It is especially true when compared to some other bargains out there.

Some of the contracts that received collective moans from the fans are Jason Garrison (signed a 6-year contract with $4.6 million AAC), Jiri Hudler (signed a 4-year contract with $4 million AAC), Dennis Wideman (signed 5-year contract with $5.2 million AAC), Brandon Prust (signed a 4-year deal with $2.5 million AAC) and Ray Whitney (signed a 2-year deal at $4.5 million AAC). Now all of these contracts seem huge, and the criticisms may very well be justified.

With Garrison being called a one-year wonder, Whitney getting flack for being too old, Hudler being a 40-50 point player at best, Prust being a grinder/fighter, and Dennis Wideman’s questionable defense, the fans and some puck-media have questioned these contracts, rightfully so. We always hear about NHL teams talk about profitability, yet they are giving out these contracts to questionable/high-risk players. I will not even touch the mega $100-million plus deals that were handed out to Parise, Suter, and Weber this off-season.

My question is – should we be complaining, or is that what these players are truly worth?

From this table you can clearly see why we have such high salaries given out to such mediocre players. The cap has almost doubled since the 05-06 season.

So now let’s analyze some of these contracts to gain perspective. Recently Hudler signed a contract with a CAP hit of about $4 million. Now you know who makes less than that? – Johan Franzen. Comparisons can be made, but Franzen has a proven playoff record and to me is clearly a better player, even if not by much, than Hudler. What I want to do is to compare their CAP hits. When Franzen was signed to his massive 11-year contract in 09-10 his yearly CAP hit represented around 6.5 % of the total teams value. Today, Hudlers contract represents about 6 % of the $70.2 CAP space. A fair difference, no?

Jason Garrison’s new contract, $4.6 AAC, takes up about 6.4% of the total team salary. Meanwhile Dan Hamuis, who is more proven and maybe a more talented defenseman, signed a similar contract, but in 10-11 season. His contract that year would have grabbed around 7 % of the total team salary. Again, to me, a fair difference.

What is really interesting is a contract like Danny Briere. His 07-08 contract carried AAC of $6.5 million. That would soak up around 13% of the team salary. The latest signing of Jakub Voracek for an AAC of $4.2 million results in only 6% of today’s $70 million salary CAP. Briere’s contract used to be worth twice as much as Voracek’s contract does today. This makes sense, since Briere is a top-tier player, a playoff specialist, while Voracek is yet to really establish himself. Yet today there is only a $2.5 million difference and Briere is not making $8 million a year like he should have due to the inflation.

Sometimes signing a rising star to a long-term deal is for the team’s benefit. The CAP only increases, and if it continues to do so at about $4-5 million a year, we can expect these HUGE deals to become HUGE value for teams. Look at Tavares on Long Island, for example. His contract is signed until 2017-18 at a CAP hit of 5.5 million. If the CAP rises to about 100 million, his contract would be a splash in the massive sea by then. It will be a mere 5% of his team salary. 5%! For Tavares!!

Some of the current AAC bargains include Mike Richards (Remember it was a big deal?) at $5.7 million a year, Duncan Keith at $5.5 million, Henrik Zetterberg at $6 million, Marian Hossa at $5.2 million, Niklas Backstrom at $6.7 million. Remember when a $6.7 a million contract was INSANE money?

Here are some interesting numbers for you to digest:

So now we know that given the reality of today’s NHL and its current alloted CAP space, these players are not overpaid at all. They are getting the market value for their talents. How much talent each player has can be argued all day long, the fact remains that if the salary CAP is to increase next year, these contracts will only become better bargains. The long-term deals, although an incredible gamble (aka Scott Gomez), are actually good for each team long-term. Their value to the team increases with each year the CAP limit goes up. In fact, it seems that players are missing out on money if they sign these long-term deals. The example above would have had Brier make 13 % of the current cap, which would equate to around $9 million cap hit.

To me it seems the salary CAP has been going up way too fast. It needs to go up by maybe $1 million or so each year to counter realistic inflation instead of the league revenue. We cannot have the CBA cut the player’s salary back by 24 % every 8 years to fight the ever-increasing CAP space. The new CBA has to not only put a restriction on the player’s contract length, maybe increase the revenue sharing too, but it has to also put a cap on the growth of the salary CAP.

Agree?

…and that is The Last Word.

Feel free to comment below and follow me on Twitter @maximus91.

Top Shelf Prospects: Chicago Blackhawks

Posted on July 29, 2012November 5, 2021 by Ben Kerr

Earlier this week I launched “Top Shelf Prospects” a look at the top prospects for all teams in the NHL. So far I have looked at the Anaheim Ducks, Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames and Carolina Hurricanes. Continuing along our alphabetical journey through the NHL, we have the Chicago Blackhawks. Since we had an extensive NHL Draft preview, I will not be reviewing the players who were drafted in the 2012 draft, as there have been no games since the draft, and my reports on them will not have changed. What I will be doing is linking you to those articles, as well as taking a look at prospects that were acquired before this year’s draft; their progress, and their chances of making the 2012-13 roster of the NHL team in question. I will also bring you one sleeper pick. A player who was either drafted in the 4th round or later, or was an undrafted free agent signing who I pick as my darkhorse to make the NHL.

2012 Draft Pick Reviews:
Teuvo Teravainen, Dillon Fournier, Brandon Whitney

Top Prospect: Brandon Saad, LW
Born Oct 27 1992 — Pittsburgh, PA
Height 6.01 — Weight 202 — Shoots Left
Selected by Chicago Blackhawks round 2 #43 overall 2011 NHL Entry Draft

When Brandon Saad joined the Saginaw Spirit at the start of the 2010-11 OHL season, he was looked at as a potential top 10 pick in the 2011 NHL draft. Things started out well enough for Saad, he wasn’t dominating the league in the way many expected, but he wasn’t playing poorly either. He still looked like a sure fire top 15 pick around midseason. Things unraveled in the second half and Saad was picked by the Blackhawks in the 2nd round of the draft, at 43rd overall. In fact, Saad was Chicago’s fourth pick of the draft. Now today many teams are kicking themselves for passing over Saad, and he is looking like a possible candidate for steal of the draft. Saad is Chicago’s best prospect and has rocketed past the three players who were taken ahead of him by the Blackhawks, Mark McNeill, Philip Danault, and Adam Clendening. This isn’t a knock against any of those three players, this is an acknowledgment of how good Saad has been over the last year. A simple explanation for Saad’s poor second half in 2010-11 has emerged. He simply had never played that many games at that many minutes at that high a level before, and he didn’t have the stamina to work through the rigours of a full OHL season. This shouldn’t be a surprise, many young athletes hit this rookie wall in the CHL, AHL, and even the NHL. Considering the way he dominated and was actually stronger down the stretch in the OHL this season, the issue now appears to be far in Saad’s review mirror.

Saad had an outstanding year in 2011-12 and he even started and finished that year with the Blackhawks. He had an outstanding training camp and even earned a spot on the big club playing two NHL games before being sent back to Saginaw. He would dominate in the OHL with 76 points in 44 games, and a further 17 points in 12 playoff games. After Saginaw was eliminated in the playoffs he would return to Chicago and play two games for the Hawks in their first round playoff loss to the Phoenix Coyotes, even recording his first NHL point, an assist.

Saad is the prototypical power winger that every NHL team craves. He has good size and is not afraid to throw his body around on the forecheck. He wins a ton of board battles and is not afraid to take punishment and go to dirty areas to score goals. He is a great skater who uses his speed, agility, and balance to beat defenders wide and then take the puck hard to the net in creating scoring chances. Saad already possesses an NHL ready shot and a quick deceptive release which he is able to use to score goals both on the rush, and by setting up in the offensive zone. He is also an underrated playmaker with good vision and passing skills. Saad has the complete package, in addition to the offensive skills I’ve talked about, he’s a solid two way hockey player and has even been an effective penalty killer for Saginaw.

Saad has a legit chance to crack the Blackhawks lineup this coming season. If he comes into camp and blows everyone away again there is quite simply no way they can keep him off the team to start the year. Even if he doesn’t make the NHL, Saad has nothing more to learn in the OHL, and its fortunate that due to his late birthday (October 1992) the Blackhawks could choose to send him to the AHL this season. Either way expect Saad to be in a Blackhawk uniform sooner rather than later.

#2 Prospect: Mark McNeill, Centre
Born Feb 22 1993 — Edmonton, ALTA
Height 6.02 — Weight 210 — Shoots Right
Selected by Chicago Blackhawks in round 1, #18 overall in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft

Mark McNeill was the Blackhawks’ first selection in the 2011 Entry Draft. He is a big talented centre, who can play an effective game in both ends of the ice. McNeill is at his best working the puck down low on the cycle game. He has excellent size, and very good puck protection skills. He is able to control the puck below the goal line and then use his excellent vision to create a scoring chance for a teammate, or use his strength to cut to the net and bury the puck with his soft hands in tight. McNeill also has a decent wrist shot and a good release, which he uses to rack up the goals.

McNeill also has a well developed defensive game. He is a conscientious back checker, and understands positioning in his own end of the rink. He has shown the ability to help his defence and contain opponents down low and in front of the net. A good penalty killer as well, McNeill cuts down passing lanes, and is willing to block shots.

McNeill has been questioned about his intensity and consistency, and a slow start to his 2011-12 season didn’t help matters. He really struggled out of the gate for Prince Albert, but eventually found a groove and finished the season strongly. The fact that he finished with less points in 2011-12 than he did in 2010-11 is one cause for concern as the stat sheet doesn’t show a progression. On the ice though, McNeill actually did show progression and played the best hockey of his junior career down the stretch, after that slow start. For a player his size he can still play the game with more of a physical edge than he currently shows, and needs to learn to bring his best effort every night. The talent is definitely there, though. The Hawks have an opening at Centre, so if McNeill comes into training camp and blows everyone away, he might make the team. However, it is far, far more likely that he is sent back to the WHL for another year to work on his game.

#3 Prospect, Jeremy Morin, Forward,
Born Apr 16 1991 — Auburn, NY
Height 6.01 — Weight 189 — Shoots Right
Selected by the Atlanta Thrashers in Round 2 #45 overall of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft. Traded to the Blackhawks in June 2010

Jeremy Morin is a talented young sniper who is capable of playing all three forward positions. He was the centre piece of the package acquired by the Blackhawks in the trade that saw Dustin Byfuglien go to Atlanta following the 2010 Stanley Cup win. Morin has soft hands, excellent stickhandling ability, and a great wrist shot. His wrist shot is especially deadly because he has an absolutely outstanding release. The quickness with which he is able to get his shot off and fire the puck on net is extremely impressive for fans to watch, and makes his shot difficult for goalies to stop. He has high level hockey IQ and is often in the right position ready to take a pass from a teammate and riffle off that wrist shot. Morin also has good offensive vision and creativity.

The biggest issue holding Morin back right now is his skating. Well I wouldn’t call it a liability, his top end speed, acceleration, and balance are all remarkably average. He does have some good agility and is able to use his shiftiness to get a step on a defender at times. Overall his skating stride is unorthodox and will need some work before he’s known as a good skater, but Morin’s skating really won’t hurt the Blackhawks either.

Morin is extremely close to being NHL ready and could make the Hawks squad with a good camp. Even if he doesn’t make the big club right away, he will need to be ready, as he’d be one of the first AHL callups in case of injury. Morin’s natural ability to put the puck in the back of the net makes him a player the Hawks will find impossible to ignore very soon.

Sleeper Pick: Andrew Shaw, Center
Born Jul 20 1991 — Belleville, ONT
Height 5.11 — Weight 180 — Shoots Right
Selected by the Chicago Blackhawks in round 5, #139 overall in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft

Seeing as how Shaw played 37 games and recorded 23 points for the Blackhawks last season, it might be a bit of a stretch to call him a sleeper. However it is quite remarkable that a 2011 5th round pick (after being passed over in both the 2009 and 2010 NHL drafts) would be able to make the team that quickly and play the way he did for Chicago.

Shaw is a prototypical pest, who works hard all over the ice to get under his opponents skin. He plays a tough, physical brand of hockey and does not let his height get in the way of playing that style. Shaw crossed the line and earned a three game suspension for his hit of Phoenix goalie Mike Smith in the first round of last years playoffs. He will need to learn to dial it down a little, and how to be an agitator while staying on the good side of the line, and not getting his team into trouble. A defensively responsible player, Shaw gives it his all and works hard in all three zones. Shaw also has offensive gifts such as decent hands and crisp passing which should help him to provide secondary scoring from a bottom six role in the NHL.

Given his play in Chicago last year, and the Hawks general need for help at centre, its hard to imagine Shaw not making the team out of training camp. It was a really astute pick by the Blackhawks to get a player who can contribute this quickly in the 5th round of the draft.

After winning the Cup in 2010, the Chicago Blackhawks found themselves in Salary Cap Jail due to some of the large contracts they had signed and the performance bonuses reached by some of their young players such as Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews in leading them to that victory. This situation forced them to trade away key contributors to the cup winning squad such as Kris Versteeg, Dustin Byfuglien, and Andrew Ladd, among others. In doing so the Blackhawks accumulate a bevy of draft picks and prospects. The Hawks have really built a deep system in this way. They were also extremely fortunate in having players like Saad, and Teravainen fall to them where they did, but even if they were lucky in these instances, their scouting staff still knew to take advantage of that luck when other teams didn’t.

This report focuses on Chicago’s forwards and Saad, McNeill, and Morin are their top three prospects. They also have guys like Brandon Pirri looking like he is NHL ready, Philip Danault coming off an excellent junior career, and Kyle Beach still trying to put it all together with his great physical tools, and become a productive player. While Forward is clearly an area of strength for the Hawks prospect pipeline, they have not neglected their young defence. They stole Nick Leddy from the Minnesota Wild in the Cam Barker deal, and he’s already contributing at the NHL level. In the minors and the college ranks, defencemen such as Dylan Olsen, Adam Clendening, and Stephen Johns have also shown a lot of promise. They also have decent goalie prospects in Kent Simpson, Mac Carruth, and a possible draft day steal in Brandon Whitney. Overall the Hawks have one of the deepest and best groups of prospects in the NHL. With much of the 2010 Stanley Cup winning core still intact, this group should soon replenish the depth the Hawks lost that summer and help the team be ready to make more runs at Lord Stanley’s Legendary Cup.

Feel free to leave your comments below and follow me on twitter @LastWordBKerr.

Amazing A’s: How Beane Created the Newest Cast of Moneyball Heroes

Posted on July 28, 2012November 5, 2021 by Max Warner

“Moneyball” GM Billy Beane once again has the Oakland Athletics (54-45) right in the thick of the playoff hunt. And in case you thought the A’s have simply been lucky, their current romp through the AL East has shown just how good this team really is. Oakland completed a four-game sweep of the New York Yankees last weekend, and then scored 27 runs while taking 2 of 3 from the Blue Jays. Last night, the A’s pushed another 14 runs across the plate in a huge victory at Baltimore. The A’s hold the second wild card spot in the AL, and are a half game out of second place in the A.L. West.

With Oakland poised to begin yet another Cinderella run to the playoffs, I thought I would break down the five best moves made by Billy Beane in the past year to help make Oakland the most surprising team in baseball in 2012.

Josh Reddick acquired in Trade from Red Sox

Last December, the A’s traded their all-star closer Andrew Bailey and bench-warmer Ryan Sweeney for outfielder Josh Reddick and two prospects. On paper, the move looked like a good one for the Sox, who were getting a proven closer in exchange for an unpolished young outfielder. But Reddick simply exploded this season, hitting 22 homeruns and posting an .886 OPS, despite playing in the pitcher-friendly Coliseum. Reddick’s Range Factor per nine of 2.14 is also fifth best among AL right fielders. Bailey has yet to pitch for Boston due to injury. Reddick gives the A’s what they have so desperately missed the past few years: a star power hitter at a cheap price. Reddick is making just $485,000 this year and is under team control until at least 2017. Boston is going to regret this trade for a long time.

Yoenis Cespedes Signed as Free Agent

On February 13, 2012, the A’s signed highly-touted Cuban free agent outfielder Cespedes to a 4 year, $36 million dollar contract. This was a risky signing for Oakland, given that MLB teams never quite know what they are getting with Cuban free agents, and given that the A’s were committing over 10% of their tiny 2012 payroll to Cespedes. He has been worth every penny, and his $6.5 million salary this year is an absolute steal. In just 67 games, Cespedes has smashed 13 homeruns, and is batting .299 with an .881 OPS. Together with Reddick, he gives the A’s a dynamic duo of power-hitting outfielders.

Cook and Parker acquired in Trade from Arizona

Last December, Beane sent young starter Trevor Cahill and reliever Craig Breslow to the D-backs for pitchers Jarrod Parker, Ryan Cook and outfielder Ryan Cowgill. Many baseball ‘experts’ quickly pronounced that Arizona won this deal, but once again, the players acquired by Beane are outplaying the assets he traded away. In 17 starts, Parker has a 3.38 ERA and 1.25 WHIP to go with 7 wins. Cook has been lights-out in the A’s bullpen, with 10 saves, a 1.90 ERA, better than a strikeout per inning, and is making just $480,000 this year and is under team control until 2018. Cahill has a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this year with Arizona, and Breslow has a 2.76 ERA and no saves. In order for the A’s to be competitive they must make deals like this one, which gives them younger, cheaper, team-controlled players who deliver star-level performance.

Four Players Acquired for Gio Gonzalez

The December 23, 2011 trade of Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals for Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, Tommy Milone and Derek Norris appeared to be one of Beane’s biggest blunders in recent memory. Gonzalez has 13 wins, a 3.13 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and better than 10 K’s per nine, and was selected to the NL all-star team this year. But each of the players acquired by Beane has the potential to make an impact at the MLB level this year and beyond. Milone has 9 wins, a 3.51 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 20 starts with the A’s, while making $2.77 million less than Gonzalez. Norris was recently called up from the minors where he posted an .804 OPS and threw out a third of would-be base stealers. At just 23 years old, Norris looks destined to become the starting catcher for the A’s. Cole is only 20 years old, but as his pitching stats in Single-A suggests (2.11 ERA, 10.3 strikeouts per 9), he has the potential to be a star pitcher in the majors in the near future. Peacock is struggling in Triple-A this year, but he is just 24, is averaging 9.6 K’s per 9 and throws in the mid-90s. Because Beane has already nearly replaced Gonzalez’s contributions while acquiring at least two future star pitchers and a solid (future) starting catcher for one pitcher, Oakland wins this deal hands down.

Acquisitions of Smith and Gomes

Seth Smith was acquired in a January trade with the Rockies for two pitchers of no consequence, and Jonny Gomes was signed as a free agent ten days later. These two players give Oakland a cheap, productive platoon combo at DH or in the outfield, if necessary. The left-handed Smith excels against right-handed pitchers (career .875 OPS), while the righty Gomes prefers lefty hurlers (career .878 OPS). For a combined salary of just $3.415 million, the Gomes-Smith combo has delivered 21 homeruns and an .833 OPS in just over 500 total at-bats. By comparison, consider that the fictional DH platoon of A-Rod and Joe Mauer has delivered 21 HR’s and an .842 OPS in 689 total at-bats for the combined salary of $52 million this year.

It’s going to be fun watching the A’s make a run to the playoffs with the league’s second-lowest payroll ($55.3725 million), competing against clubs which spend double or triple the money that Oakland does on player salaries. The renewed success of the A’s is proof positive that baseball is still the ultimate team game, and that frugal, intelligent management can triumph over the gluttonous, excessive payrolls which so dominate baseball.

…and that’s the Last Word.

AFC East Preview: How Belichick is Changing the NFL – again!

Posted on July 28, 2012November 5, 2021 by Ben Kerr

This week I have been previewing the AFC – the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets. Today I move on to the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are the reigning champions of not only the division, but the entire AFC. For the past decade they have dominated the AFC East capturing eight division titles in ten seasons. Both times they lost the division, they still tied for the best record, but lost the crown on a tie-break.

Not much has changed for the Patriots between the end of last season and today that would cast doubt over their chances of again being the top team in the division. The Patriots are the surest thing in football – we know they will be good, and we know that they will win their share of games outside the division. As such, the only realistic way for a team within the division to knock them off is to beat them head-to-head. The Bills were able to exploit the Patriots defense for an early season victory last year, but they did not fare so well in the rematch and got blown away in New England. The Jets have their impressive 2010 post-season victory over the Pats in Foxborough, but other than they they have lost the last three regular season meetings, and really it hasn’t been close. The Dolphins don’t really have what it takes to put together the type of season needed to win this division.

The scariest thing for their AFC East opponents is that the Patriots might be the strongest they have been since the 2007 this season. On offense the Patriots have finally added an impact player on the outside in Brandon Lloyd, and another key veteran in Donte Stallworth. They also return all of last year’s key starters. On defense the team finally decided to use their first round picks in the first round this year, instead of trading down repeatedly, and hope they have added two impact starters for 2012. While the other teams in the AFC East are scrambling for ways to catch up to the Patriots, New England is busy refining their roster into one of the deepest and most talented squads in the league. The Patriots only have 13 rookies in camp this year, the fewest of any team in the league. Their roster is loaded with veteran talent and ridiculous depth. Some of the players that will be cut before this season by the Patriots could end up being solid contributors to other teams. Beyond the players it is the offensive design and constant innovation that have confounded the league in recent years.

In the last two years the Patriots are 25-5 in the regular season. They lost the Super Bowl for the 2011 season and the suffered the aforementioned devastating loss to the Jets in 2010. Going back further to 2008 the Patriots finished 11-5 with Tom Brady on the injured reserve. They missed the playoffs in a tie-break, but it is hard to imagine they couldn’t have picked up one more win with Brady healthy all season. With Brady’s return the following season the team went 10-6 and made the playoffs, but got their doors blown-off by the Ravens in a round-one playoff exit. Brady wasn’t totally himself that season as he was only a year removed from his devastating leg injury. You could argue the Brady injury cost the franchise two years and not just one. In the three seasons surrounding that injury (07, 10, 11) with a completely healthy Brady the Patriots have dominated NFL regular seasons. They have posted a 41-5 regular season record in that time and have only the Giants to thank for the fact they don’t own two more Super Bowls.

So how do the Patriots do it? How do they stay on top year after year? Part of the answer is Tom Brady and the other part of the answer is the excellent coaching of Bill Belichick, who helps to put together the most consistent team in the NFL week-after-week. Let’s dig a little deeper – what exactly is it that these two men do that makes them so successful? I think part of the answer dates back to 2006.

In 2003 and 2004 the Patriots won two Super Bowls with a solid quarterback who seemed to raise his game at the right moments and a dominating defense that stifled opposing offenses. By the time 2006 rolled around this defense had grown old and was on its last legs. But at the same time Brady was emerging as one of the best talents in the NFL – if not the best.

In the 2006 AFC Championship game, the Patriots had to watch the Colts come back from a big halftime deficit to capture the AFC title. Their defense was powerless to stop Peyton Manning as the Colts roared back, but maybe more importantly their offense didn’t have the play makers to match the explosive Colts. This game was a microcosm for the changes happening in the NFL. (Quick Tangent: This is also the last time a non-superstar QB made the Super Bowl – Rex Grossman. Since then we have seen Brady-Eli (twice), Roethlisberger vs. Warner and Rodgers, and Peyton versus Brees. You could argue Eli wasn’t a superstar at the time of his first title but like the early Brady championships it was a sign of things to come.) Belichick saw the tide turning and knew that to win consistently you needed to be able to score points through the air. In the offseason he retooled his team with a focus on receiving targets and he ended up with the greatest offense of all time (with a little help from the Oakland Raiders).

It wasn’t just getting the players he acquired that made the offense great but the design of the offense also. In 2007 the Patriots became the first team in the history of the NFL to use the shotgun formation on more than 50% of their plays. They were ahead of the curve in their use of the formation and the rest of the league is just now starting to catch up. In 2001, the shotgun was used on only 14% of plays, and by 2006 this had grown to 20%. But last season in the NFL, the shotgun was used on a record 41% of all plays.

Right now, it is simply a much more effective scheme. Teams average 6-yards per play from shotgun, but only 5.2 yards per play from under center. As the formation becomes more common, and more widely used, it is becoming even more effective. The difference in yards per play between shotgun / non-shotgun was larger in 2011 than in any of the previous three seasons. (statistics courtesy Football Outsiders Almanac 2012).

With the proliferation of the passing offense has come the reaction by NFL defenses to stop it. More nickel and dime packages have become prevalent as ways to match-up with multiple receivers. Safeties have had to become quicker, and usually lighter, in order to have the speed to cover the whole field and often deal with receivers and tight ends in one-on-one situations. Defenses may not have figured out how to stop the shotgun yet, but they are trying everything they can and eventually they will become more successful. Belichick has seen this shift coming, too, and he is trying to stay ahead of the curve yet again.

In 2010 he drafted two big and talented Tight Ends. Last year he unleashed a redesigned passing attack that heavily featured those tight end’s, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. By throwing to bigger targets Belichick could exploit teams’ preference to play nickle defense against the Patriots passing attack. He could also use the versatility of his tight ends to change the type of offense they were running without having to sub in different personnel (and allow the defense an opportunity to do the same). If the defense decided to remain with their base formation on the field (only four DB’s) then the Patriots could spread it out using their tight ends out wide and exploit match-ups against linebackers. If the defense was in a nickle or dime defense with five or more DB’s then the Patriots could use the size of the tight ends to their advantage as blockers in the run game, or in the case of Hernandez, sometimes even the running back himself. It was an ingenious plan that few defenses had an answer for. I expect Belichick to continue to develop his plan this season.

This season New England has brought two fullbacks to camp as well as four tight ends. Not all are expected to make the roster, but with the recent signing of TE Visanthe Shiancoe (to sub in for the injured Daniel Fells) it appears at least three tight ends will make the final roster, which is in contrast to the two tight ends they carried for most of last year. Remember that the Patriots also used back-to-back 2nd and 3rd round picks in the 2011 entry draft to grab a pair of running backs, Shane Vereen and Steven Ridley. The move seemed curious for a team that values its mid-round draft picks so much and who are also a pass based offense that generally take a committee approach in the back field. Maybe it was just careful planning by Belichick who foresaw the league’s continued shift to more passing plays and the potential for his team to exploit this focus by taking the game to the ground.

I am not suggesting the Patriots are planning to take the game out of Tom Brady’s hands. I am just suggesting that this is yet another weapon that Bill Belichick is devising for 2012. It gives them a different way to attack opponents in the second half when they are protecting a lead. It could even possibly allow them to open up games in a heavy set against teams that have just spent all week preparing to stop the Patriots aerial assault. In other words it brings the ultimate in versatility to the Patriots offense, which is something Belichick craves in individual players. So why not build his team as a unit in the same way? Belichick is designing the Patriots Offence as the ultimate nightmare to match-up against, with the versatility to beat almost any package an opponent sends their way. Add to that the intelligence and the precision execution of Tom Brady, and the offence should continue to roll this season.

In recent years, Belichick has taken heavy criticism in the media for overseeing what is statistically a very poor defense. They wonder how a “defensive mastermind” could live with himself watching his defense give up completion after completion as teams march up and down the field. It must not be easy for Belichick, but his defenses are never as bad as the yardage statistics make it seem (they have led the league in Points Prevented Per Drive in both 2010 and 2011 as measured by Footballoutsiders.com, a stat that essentially measures how many points you give up vs. yards given up, the Patriots are always high on the “bend, but don’t break” list). And he also knows that he made a conscious decision to focus the team’s resources on maintaining a high-powered passing offense even if it meant the defense has had to suffer for it. Bill Belichick is no longer a defensive coordinator; he is a head coach and he has to do what he thinks is best for his entire team. His latest incorporation of the tight ends into the offense has been a great success and given Belichick’s recent track record of success the league better take notice of his latest innovation in a hurry.

In 2012 it will take a monumental effort from one of their East division rivals to knock the Patriots off their perch.

Feel free to leave your comments below.

Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Year: 2012