Just when we thought the NFL couldn’t have gotten any more unpredictable the advent of the replacement referees gave us more unpredictability than we’ve ever seen in a single week in the NFL. The most notable of these completely unpredictable situations is the game that anyone reading this blog is familiar with, the Green bay interception on Seattle’s Hail Mary that was auspiciously called “simultaneous possession” and ruled a touchdown, erroneously. This all-time bad call cost Green bay a win and cost me a correct pick last week. Through it all, I equaled my worst week as an NFL picks prognosticator at 8-8, but relieved to keep my streak of having never finished worse than 8-8(or under .500) in any NFL week I have picked all of the games.
With the agreement between the NFL and the NFL Referees Association, there will be more consistency in picking NFL games and not having acts of randomness by replacement officials clouding good judgement and predictions. To no surprise, the very first game refereed by the “real” refs, resulted in my Baltimore v. Cleveland pick not only producing a trifecta but the game score of 23-16 was a Justin Tucker missed field away from exacting my 26-16 game score prediction, which would have been my 4th perfect game score prediction in since Week 1 of 2011. Picking a perfect game score has odds around 500 to 1(0.2%).
With the return of the referees, I expect to have the return of elite NFL picks. I’ve done my savant analysis of the Week 4 games you can see below, but first here is a recap of last week’s savant pick records and year-to-date records…
*WEEK 3 RESULTS*
Trifecta: 7
NOTE: Score predictions followed with a “*LOCK*” sign are my spread locks of the week. These are the games I am most certain of the spread pick and feel they should be wagered on if choosing four games to do so.
Don’t forget to check therealsportssavant.blogspot.com every week to check my game picks and check the previous week’s picks for individual game pick results! And now I present my Week 3, Sports Savant, NFL picks…
Cleveland @ Baltimore(-12) (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland with the points; Baltimore to win ~ 26-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
—
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
Buffalo v. New England(-4) (o/u 50.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo with the points; New England and the points to win ~ 24-21
Over/Under Pick: Under
Minnesota @ Detroit(-4.5) (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota with the points; Detroit to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over
Carolina @ Atlanta(-7) (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 31-23
Over/Under Pick: Over
New York(A) v. San Francisco(-4) (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 23-13 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under
Kansas City v. San Diego(-1) (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 26-21 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over
Tennessee @ Houston(-12) (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee with the points; Houston to win ~ 28-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
St. Louis v. Seattle(-3) (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle and the points to win ~ 31-16 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over
Miami @ Arizona(-5.5) (o/u 39)
Savant Spread Pick: Arizona and the points to win ~ 19-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
Oakland @ Denver(-7) (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 31-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Jacksonville v. Cincinnati(-2.5) (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Cincinnati and the points to win ~ 23-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
New Orleans v. Green Bay(-7.5) (o/u 53)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 38-28
Over/Under Pick: Over
Washington @ Tampa Bay(-2.5) (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tampa Bay and the points to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over
New York(N) v. Philadelphia(-2.5) (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(N) to win ~ 24-19 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under
Chicago @ Dallas(-3.5) (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas and the points to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
