Welcome back to Boom or Bust. We are at Part Two of this 30-part series, where we scour the NBA team-by-team, examining the best and worst young talent that each has to offer. For a full explanation of the goals and methodology of this column, please click here to read the introduction.
Today we look at one of the more interesting teams in the NBA for this coming season, and a team that I believe can surprise a lot of people.
Houston Rockets
2011-2012 Record – 34-32
Ever since the Yao Ming era came to an end, the Rockets have finished three consecutive years in NBA hell—just outside the playoffs, and just inside the lottery. For the past year, general manager Daryl Morey has been active in the pursuit of Dwight Howard, only to have those hopes crushed by the recent Lakers trade.
With no obvious targets on the horizon, the Rockets will have to make do with what they have. Based on their summer league performances, the Rockets seem to have a strong rookie class, but with a lack of professional experience, it will be the existing NBA guys that lead the charge to start the season.
Omer Asik
Age – 26, Previous Season Stats – 3.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.0 BPG
Pale as a ghost, Asik is often praised for his defensive prowess, and was a key component of the Bulls’ depth and stifling team defense. Omer is set to make 25.1 million dollars over the next three years, but considering the Warriors once paid 6.75 million to Kwame Brown for a backup role, there have been worse contracts given to 7-footers in the NBA. In limited minutes, Asik is one of the top rebounders and shot blockers in the NBA. Last season, advanced statistics show Asik has the highest defensive rating out of qualified players.
Asik should start on the Rockets this coming season. He is mobile, and is a strong finisher when given a good look. Lin will utilize him offensively in a similar way as Tyson Chandler. Asik could benefit from being coached by Kevin McHale, and if he can learn to improve his positioning on the low block and expand his offensive arsenal a little, his signing could be a real bargain.
Prospect Score – 6/10
Jon Brockman
Age – 25, Previous Season Stats – 1.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 33.3 FT%
NBA scouts often say that rebounding is the skill that translates best from college to the pros. An undersized power forward with good rebounding skills is not unheard of, ranging from the legends (Charles Barkley, Wes Unseld, Dennis Rodman) to the great role players (Chuck Hayes and Reggie Evans).
Unfortunately for Jon, while his rebounding (offensive rebounding in particular) is good, he has no redeeming skill outside of grabbing boards. Chuck Hayes is undersized, a great rebounder, an elite defender, an above average passer, and plays with relentless hustle. Reggie Evans is a godly rebounder who plays with great energy and toughness.
Jon Brockman is a good rebounder, plays hard, but not hard enough to make a big difference. His size is a disadvantage, and it is doubtful that he will make the final Rockets roster.
Prospect Score – 2/10
Toney Douglas
Age – 26, Previous Season Stats – 6.2 PPG, 2.0 APG, 32.4 FG%
Lin took Toney’s job in New York, and looks like he’ll be taking it again here in Houston. Douglas’ game is to shoot first, but his shooting numbers have regressed since his rookie year. He has a quick release, can get shots off easily, and can nail shots with ease spotting-up or off the dribble.
The problem with Douglas is that he is not an exceptional shooter, and his style of play (pulling up on jumpshots) is not sustainable. If his shot isn’t falling, he just looks like a chucker. Last season saw his true shooting percentage at 39.3%, versus the 57.1% and 53.4% he had in his rookie and sophomore seasons.
Douglas should see back-up minutes at both guard positions, and should work on attacking and breaking down defenses, instead of trying to will shots in from outside the arc. If Toney can bounce back from last season, he could become a valuable player in the NBA.
Prospect Score – 4/10
Gary Forbes
Age – 27, Previous Season Stats – 6.6 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 41.3 FG%
Forbes went undrafted when he declared in 2008, but has made his way into the league. He was a solid offensive option off the bench in last year’s train wreck of the Toronto Raptors. He was forced to play point guard at times, and for a slashing shooting guard, and he could have done a lot worse.
There is an admirable quality about a guy like Forbes though. To work your way back into the league after getting ignored by virtually every single team in the NBA twice shows extreme work ethic and dedication. And wouldn’t want to surround his team with that?
Forbes played for the Rockets’ summer league team in 2010, so Morey and the front office have some idea of what Forbes brings to the table. The Rockets have a great record in recognizing talent, and many successful undrafted NBA players have made pit stops at Houston early in their career (John Lucas III, Ish Smith, Jeremy Lin, Kelenna Azubuike, and Chuck Hayes, to name a few).
With so many question marks on the Rockets next year, don’t be surprised if Gary Forbes ends up playing significant minutes.
Prospect Score – 6/10
Courtney Fortson
Age – 24, Previous Season Stats – 3.5 PPG, 1.0 APG
Tell me cool hair does not get you a spot in the league. Courtney Fortson had a solid season in the D-League and became a viable option as a third string point guard. At 5’11, he is not the tallest player on the floor, but he plays with great energy and is fun to watch. If he did not look like Lil Wayne, he would not be as fun to watch.
Career third string point guard if he even makes it. I wish the best of luck to this little guy.
Prospect Score – 2/10 (1/10 + 1 for the hair = 2/10)
JaJuan Johnson
Age – 23, Previous Season Stats – 3.2 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 44.6 FG%
As a casual fan of Boilermaker basketball, I like JaJuan Johnson. 6’10, athletic, good jump shot and skilled, Johnson will hang around this league for a few more years, just in case he develops into something special. JaJuan played exclusively in garbage time during his first season, and sadly, with the Rockets frontcourt depth, he would be lucky to make the roster, let alone play in garbage time.
As a side note, Johnson did not look this skinny in college. I guess there’s a reason why some college guys wear t-shirts under their jerseys. On the topic of being skinny, with the exception of Kevin Garnett and Chris Bosh, there are virtually no successful power forwards that are thin, so JaJuan Johnson has some work to do if he wants to carry his basketball success to a professional level.
There’s always Europe.
Prospect Score – 2.5/10
Jeremy Lin
Age – 24, Previous Season Stats – 14.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 6.1 APG, 1.6 SPG
‘Linsanity’ Stats – 18.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 7.7 APG, 2.0 SPG
I could write a book about this guy if I wanted to. Often described as the most polarizing player in the NBA, Jeremy Lin will be one of the most watched players to begin the season.
The truth about Lin is that during the peak of Linsanity, he was one of the top point guards in the league. After that stretch, he still played well above average, and showed that he could lead an NBA team. One thing to consider—teams (as witnessed by the Heat) became focused on shutting down Lin because they were determined to end the hype. It’s a similar effect that Team USA has in the Olympics. Team Tunisia plays harder against the US than they would against Nigeria for that chance of an upset.
Should he continue to play at an 18-8 level, $8 million a year is great value for that type of production. If he plays like he did during the height of Linsanity, the Rockets would have made the signing of a century. Failure is also an option, but I just can’t see it.
As a huge Jeremy Lin fan that gets teary-eyed every time he watches Linsanity highlights, I’ll knock a point off the prospect score I would have given him.
Adjusted Prospect Score – 8/10
That Raptors game winner gets me every time. :’)
Marcus Morris
Age – 22, Previous Season Stats – 2.4 PPG, 0.9 APG, 29.6 FG%
The older Morris twin never had a chance in his first season, so it’s hard to give him a fair evaluation. A versatile and efficient scorer in college, Morris compared himself to Carmelo Anthony in his rookie press conference, and went as far as saying he would “not take after [Carmelo] on the defensive side.” For a rookie that averaged 2.4 a game, that’s a lot of words.
Even if he has been working as hard as he can to prepare for training camp, it will be tough for Marcus to break the rotation. Parsons and Patterson should be starters, and newcomers Royce White, Terrence Jones, and Donatas Motiejunas are all strong contenders for frontcourt minutes. Morris was a good scorer in college, and even if his scoring can translate to the NBA, his lack of a true position may hurt his chances of earning playing time.
Prospect Score – 2/10
Chandler Parsons
Age – 23, Previous Season Stats – 9.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, 45.2 FG%
Some of you may remember this game winner from two years ago:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wrrcnxFw10
I re-watched it recently and was kind of surprised that it was Chandler Parsons who made that shot.
Chandler Parsons was an absolute steal in the second round and had a successful rookie season. Chandler received high praise from Kobe Bryant for his defense, which is never a bad thing.
Parsons is long, athletic, a good passer, and more importantly, drop dead gorgeous. He has all the tools to become an incredible role player and at his best, could be a handsome and white Luol Deng. Chandler is a guy that Houston should be keeping for the foreseeable future, and should be starting unless the Rockets land a top small forward.
One thing he does have to work on though is his free throw shooting. Although he only averages 1.2 attempts a game (his poor percentages may cause him to be reluctant to draw fouls), Chandler shot an abysmal 55.1% from the foul line. In his best year of college ball, Parsons shot 66.2% from the foul line. It is hard to pinpoint a reason for poor free throw shooting, but I am willing to bet that the hot women in the crowd giving him naughty looks and bedroom eyes might have something to do with it.
And even if Chandler regresses and drops out the NBA… with that face, he should never have to worry about anything.
Prospect Score – 8/10
Greg Smith
Age – 21, Previous Season Stats – 1.8 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 0.6 BPG
It is hard to write an analysis on a player who played 69 minutes total in a season on a team you don’t follow religiously. Greg Smith does pass the D-League test so we know he is not a complete bum. If you watch this video, you’ll get an idea of what I mean.
You realize that Greg Smith may challenge Monta Ellis as one of the hardest people to understand in the NBA. Looking back to some scouting reports, it seems that Greg is just another physically gifted, but incredibly raw and unpolished big man. It will be hard to see Greg succeed in the league, but at least he has a true position.
Prospect Score – 1.5/10
Sean Williams
Age – 25, Previous Season Stats – 3.6 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.9 BPG
As a rookie, Sean Williams was a blast to watch and was an absolute highlight machine. Williams is a prolific shot blocker, but might suffer from being too obsessed with blocking shots. His rebounding is nothing to write home about, and because of his eagerness to swat balls in mid-air, he can sometimes forget about playing proper defense… the type that involves feet on the ground.
Williams found his way back in the NBA after a one-year hiatus, and started the season with the Mavericks on a Nets reunion tour with Jason Kidd and Vince Carter. As soon as Brandan Wright proved that he was worth a damn in this league, Sean Williams became expendable, and he finished the season in Boston. In limited minutes, he has shown that he hasn’t made significant improvements to his game.
As with many other forwards on the Rockets roster, it is doubtful that Williams will make the final roster. He does however, have the best shot blocking ability out of any of the forwards on the team, so that might make him worth a second look.
Prospect Score – 1.5/10
There you have it – a look at the younger talent on the Houston Rockets. Feel free to leave comments below, and check back soon as I continue making my way around the NBA looking for the league’s best (and worst) young talent in this 30-part special, “Boom or Bust”.
