As August’s end draws near, the battle for the opportunity to play in the playoffs intensifies significantly. In a league with a 162 game schedule, “must win” games can add some much-welcomed drama and desperation – a recipe for excitement. As we approach the end of the season, an increasing number of games meet this definition.
September of 2011 provided baseball fans with one of the most exciting conclusions in the history of the sport and demonstrated just how quickly things can change in the final month of the regular season. With the welcomed addition of two more wild card spots, one can only expect at least a similar level of excitement. We will look at the American League races tomorrow, but first let’s take a look at the three top contenders from the National League.
National League
1) Atlanta Braves
Why they WILL make it:
That’s a good question. What exactly are the Braves doing that has them in playoff contention? The answer…clutch hitting and a quality bullpen.
The Braves are around the middle-of-the-pack in most offensive categories. They are top -five, however, in on-base percentage, runs and RBI’s. In other words, they hit when there are runners on. Or put another way, there are often runners on, so the hits they get often result in runs being scored.
Atlanta’s starting rotation is currently sitting bottom three in the NL in quality starts. If the starters are not getting past the fifth inning on a regular basis, obviously this means the bullpen is getting a lot of use. That being said, the Braves currently sit top-five in the NL in team ERA and saves. When the Braves have a lead, the bullpen keeps it that way. When they don’t have a lead, the bullpen is putting a stop to the bleeding and allowing the offense to score runs with clutch hitting.
Why they WON’T make it:
If the starting rotation cannot find ways to get deeper into ball games there is always the possibility that the bullpen starts to run out of gas, starts to get over exposed or more realistically some combination of the two.
X factor(s):
Health. If the Braves can stay healthy for the remainder of the season, we should see them in the playoffs. In particular, Chipper Jones and Jason Heyward need to stay on the field.
2) St. Louis Cardinals
Why they WILL make it:
The Cardinals are the best offensive team in the National League. They are tops in on-base percentage, on-base plus slugging, team batting average, runs batted in, total bases, and most importantly….runs.
The Cards are getting excellent pitching as well. Currently tied for first in the league in quality starts, in or around top-five in the league in team ERA as well as WHIP.
Why they WON’T make it:
I got nothing. They will….
X factor(s):
Apart from one and a half series with the Nationals and one three-game series with the Dodgers, the Cardinals September schedule is as soft as the inside of a Twinkie. We can expect to see the Cardinals in October.
3) Pittsburgh Pirates
Why they WILL make it:
The Pirates have succeeded in a manner similar to that of the American League’s Baltimore Orioles – hitting the long ball and a solid bullpen. The “big fly” allows a team like the Bucs to score runs in bunches. The strong bullpen is called upon to either keep the lead created by the home run(s) or keep them in the game long enough to tie it up or take the lead with the homer.
Their September schedule also gives them a good chance to sneak into the post season. Apart from two 3-game series with the Cincinnati Reds, their remaining match-ups are all against sub-.500 ball clubs.
Why they WON’T make it:
Similar to the situation the the Braves will be facing, if the Pirates starting rotation cannot find a way to get deeper into ball games, their bullpen might run into fatigue and/or overexposure problems.
The Pirates have also struggled to shut down the running game of their opponents. The Bucs have given up the third most stolen bases in the National League and have thrown out the least amount of would-be base thieves.
X factor(s):
Of the three discussed wild card contenders, The Pirates are the team with the least amount of playoff race experience/success. The Braves and Cardinals have been in this position before and have experienced success.
Side note…..Travis Snider strikes out too much.
My wild card picks:
Atlanta and St. Louis.
*** Look for the Los Angeles Dodgers to play in the post season by winning their division with good pitching, solid acquisitions (Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino) and a San Fransico Giants team dealing with the distraction of All-Star Melky Cabrera’s multi-game ban for use of a banned substance.
There you have my list of teams and why they will or will not make this year’s post-season. Be sure to check out tomorrow’s list of American League teams and why they will or will not be playing post-season ball.
Feel free to leave comments below.
