Spread: Montreal Alouettes -4 over Hamilton Tiger-Cats
This is the classic case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Tiger-Cats enter the contest with two straight losses and are fortunate not to be on a three-game losing streak thanks to that big 4th quarter comeback at Saskatchewan.
The problem with the Ti-cats has always been their defense – well at least in the last several years. They are the worst defense in the CFL and it was masked at times by the play of the Hamilton offense and Special Teams, most notably Chris Williams. The Ti-cats have allowed either a 300-yard passing game or a 100-yard rushing game in every game this season. Things have been even worse for the Ticats with injuries in the secondary and at LB with Markeith Knowlton out the last couple of games.
There aren’t any significant changes being made for this week’s game vs the Als. I do not expect Hamilton to stop anyone, especially a Montreal team that has started clicking in most aspects of the game. Montreal’s O-line was considered a major plus in the preseason and started the season off poorly, due to execution as well as some key injuries. Calvillo was getting hit and getting hurried quite often. Teams were also bottling up the run game. It looked as if the Als were finally getting old and the dynasty was coming to an end, as all good things do. However the last couple of weeks, the O-line has played very well and has given Calvillo time to pick apart defenses.
Calvillo looks like he is over the shoulder injury that bothered him early in the year and has found a nice rapport with WR London. They showed last week vs a great Eskimo defense that they could do well without some key missing pieces in WR Richardson and RB Whitaker. This week, Whitaker should return and he should make for a good tandem with RB Anderson, who played well last week. Richardson will still be out, but the Als should have success moving the ball through the air again.
Montreal’s defense has also been playing much better. They have been getting to the QB with greater success and the pressure has taken some stress off the secondary. Getting pressure this week is key to slowing down the Hamilton offense. Henry Burris has been playing “All-World” this year. Last week, he was superb, however he couldn’t hold on to the ball as he fumbled three times in the loss to Winnipeg. The Hamilton offense will also get a big boost with the return of Andy Fantuz, who returns from a concussion. Fantuz has been having a great season and has been Burris’ go-to guy through the middle of the field.
Hamilton will lose RB Walker for this game and he will be replaced by former Als RB, Avon Cobourne. Cobourne should still effective but he doesn’t have that huge-play potential that Walker brings and Montreal should be able to focus a little more on the passing game with Walker out.
All in all, I really like the Alouetttes to keep the momentum and dispose of the Ti-cats here. I do think the Ti-cats offense will get their points here, but Montreal has improved enough on defense that they should be able to slow down the Ti-cats. I believe the Ti-cats defense is still lost and with no big personnel or strategic changes, they will continue to play like the worst defense in the league, and with Calvillo rounding into his usual form, Montreal could put up 40 here. We also have the revenge factor for the Alouettes, as they have lost the last 2 to the Ti-cats, including the East Semifinal. I look for Montreal to continue their winning ways.
Pick: Take the Als and give the four points.
