Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Fantasy Football: Deep Sleepers

For those of you who are in a fantasy football dynasty league like myself, and depending on how many keepers your league allows, you will likely agree that it is oftentimes difficult to search and find information on the Internet for sleepers. Most of the time these so called “sleepers” end up being keepers in your dynasty leagues, rendering the article useless.  Fantasy goers are always looking for the next big thing but don’t want to have to spend a high draft pick on someone who could be a bust.   I compiled a list of players who should be available late in your draft and have tremendous potential when they get their chance to play.

When looking for potential players I always try to look at starters that shouldn’t be starters and research if there is any depth behind them.  Another way to look at it is to find players who have produced on a limited basis, but haven’t yet played a full season.   Last year I focused on three players who I didn’t believe were starting calibre: Felix Jones, Tim Hightower and Joseph Addai.  I’ll admit that I reached on Delone Carter as Addai’s backup, but as I already had Addai on my team it was worth a hand cuff.  I missed the train on Roy Helu, but was able to pick up Demarco Murray late and it was working out great until his injury.

Below is a list of players you can pick up late that will have an impact not only this year but years to come.

1 – Vincent Brown – WR – San Diego Chargers – 5’11” 184lbs. (Age 23)

With Vincent Jackson gone to the Bucs, the Chargers are going to need someone to step up and right off the bat and I’ll tell you Robert Meachem isn’t the answer.  We’re talking about a guy who had one of the best QB’s in the League throwing him the ball in Drew Brees and still produced average numbers through his entire career – he simply isn’t going to improve in year 6.  Malcolm Floyd and Meachem are strictly deep threats and San Diego needs a more dynamic receiver to step up in 2012.  Brown, the 2011 3rd round pick, is in his second year out of San Diego State and has a lot to prove. Philip Rivers has already built a good relationship with Antonio Gates but will need to build a new relationship on the outside. Brown will easily pass Eddie Royal on the depth chart to become the number three receiver and soon push Floyd and Meachem for  #1.

2 – Alex Green – RB – Green Bay Packers – 6’0” 225lbs. (Age 24)

When you look at the Green Bay Packers it is hard to say there is room for improvement on offense. But what Green Bay does need is a running back that can help grind out in short-yardage situations.  James Starks will start the year as their starter, but slowly you will notice Green to start cutting into his carries and eventually take over as the number one back. Last year Ryan Grant and Starks spilt the workload but neither used the opportunity to establish themselves as a true number one running back. Green Bay finished 27th overall in rushing, not good enough for a team that started 13-0 with plenty of opportunities to run the clock out. Green Bay will keep defences honest this year with a good mix of rushing and passing. Green could be the missing piece to another Green Bay title.

3 – Ronnie Hillman – RB – Denver Broncos – 5’9” 200lbs.  (Age 21)

Willis McGahee will also start the season in Denver as the number one back, but how long will he last? Last season McGahee looked like a legitimate number one back posting close to 1,200 yards rushing and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Can he post numbers like that again this year?  Playing with a running quarterback can add up to a full yard per carry to a running backs rushing average, before last season McGahee had never before averaged more than 4.1 YPC as a feature back.  Add this to the fact that McGahee is not a particularly good receiving back and that he turns 31 during the season, and you get the picture that he might not be the best fit for the new look Broncos in 2012. Denver will look to their young receiving core early and often and that means 3rd round pick Ronnie Hillman. Hillman rushed for 1,784 yards in 2011 with an average of 137 yards per game in a 13 game schedule last year at San Diego State. Hillman should get a chance to prove himself as a 3rd down back right away. Look for him to step up to the plate and take advantage of this opportunity.

4 – Vick Ballard – RB – Indianapolis Colts – 5’10” 217lbs. (Age 22)

The Colts are in a rebuilding year after finishing last overall and securing the first overall selection in Andrew Luck. They are going to look to surround Luck with young talent that the team can build on over the next couple of years. Currently Donald Brown is the number one back with Delone Carter as the number two. Brown was the Colts’ first round pick in 2009 and has yet to make a serious impact. He’s had three years to prove himself to not only the coaches, but fantasy owners like myself, and has yet to distinguish himself. Ballard will have no problem surpassing Carter on the depth chart and eventually cutting into Brown’s carries. But Ballard will also need to work on catching out of the back field before he can be a true number one. This will be a nice late steal, or look for him on the waiver wire after week 1.

5 – Danny Amendola – WR – St. Louis Rams – 5’11” 188lbs. (Age 26)

If you’re in a PPR league this will be a nice addition to your team.  Amendola will be off most fantasy radars after taking a year off on the IR in 2011. Quarterback Sam Bradford has subpar talent around him with the likes of second year TE Lance Kendricks and the oft injured Steve Smith. Brian Quick will be a wild card but you can expect Amendola to pick up exactly where he finished off before injury being Bradford’s go-to-guy.  My expectations are that he’ll put up similar stats to 2010 posting upwards of 80 catches and possibly 800 yards. Look to Amendola to be someone who can fill in on bye weeks that will put up consistent numbers.

6 – Fred Davis – TE – Washington Redskins – 6’4” 247lbs. (Age 26)

Let’s face it, after the top-two tight ends in Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, which will most likely be unavailable, all the other tight ends are pretty much the same. Once it reaches the middle rounds most fantasy owners will look at their roster and see the TE spot is empty and try to fill it with their next pick. But there is still a lot of talent available in the mid-rounds, it is better to look to fill these positions with WR’s and RB’s. Davis will be a steal in the late rounds. Last year he was second only to Grownkowski in yards per game. He was later suspended under the league’s substance abuse program and missed the last 4 games. This year with the addition of RG3 and Pierre Garcon look for Davis’ production to get a nice boost from last year’s numbers.

The above players are some early suggestions for those of you who have upcoming drafts. Some bonus players to keep an eye on are Leonard Hankerson WR WAS, Robert Turbin RB SEA and Doug Baldwin WR SEA.

Check back for my follow-up articles on my picks, as well as some players to watch on the waiver wires.

Feel free to post comments below.

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