Last year’s Stanley Cup had the Boston Bruins beat the Vancouver Canucks in a thrilling seven-game series. It also saw some of the highest television ratings of all-time for a Stanley Cup final.
The series as a whole averaged 4.6 million viewers in the US making it the most-watched combined network/cable Stanley Cup involving a Canadian team, and the most watched series as a whole since 2002. Game 7 alone drew 8.54 million viewers in the States making it the most watched game in 38 years. In Canada, game 7 drew an audience of 8.76 million making it the second most-watched CBC Sports program in history, trailing only the Gold Medal game in 2002. That game brought in an almost untouchable 10.6 million viewers, which is almost 1/3 of the country’s population.
So what kind of numbers can we expect to see from this year’s Cup final? Is this match-up one which people will tune-in to see en masse?
There are a number of factors at play, with the biggest and most obvious one being the markets these teams are in. According to Forbes, the L.A Kings are surprisingly the 10th richest franchise in the league, putting them well ahead of all of their west coast rivals. Unfortunately it still isn’t one of the major hockey markets in North America when compared with the “big” teams, and doesn’t receive a lot of attention from the rest of the hockey world, particularly in the East.
New Jersey on the other hand, is in a major hockey market. But they happen to be a small fish in a big pond, sitting 20th on the list, and dominated by juggernauts such as the Boston Bruins (5th), Philadelphia Flyers (8th), and cross-river rivals, the New York Rangers (2nd). Oddly enough they do command high viewership numbers when they make the finals. I’m not sure whether it’s bitter rival fans tuning in to cheer against them, or if it’s to watch the “legend in the making”, Martin Brodeur, play. Either way, historically the numbers are there when Jersey plays.
In 1995 the Devils split an average of 5.2 million viewers with the Detroit Red Wings. In 2000 and 2001 when they made back to back finals, they split an average of 5.5 and 5.0 million viewers with the Dallas Stars and the Colorado Avalanche respectively. And amazingly enough, they hit 3.6 million playing one of the least-watched teams in the NHL, the Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks, during a big decline in viewership.
What Could Go Right?
1. L.A beat the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd-seeded teams in the West, and could be the only 8th seed team to win the Cup. This storyline has captured a lot of attention, and hopefully will filter to the “fringe-fans”. If so, perhaps the NHL can capitalize on the massive LA market.
2. A Storyline of Martin Brodeur and his legacy in hockey.
3. LA fans tuning in, in even bigger numbers with the Lakers/Clippers out of the NBA playoffs.
4. Capitalizing on the New York/New Jersey tv viewing market.
What Could Go Wrong?
1. Game times,
2. These teams have no history. If the series isn’t close there will be low viewership until games 4-7.
3. Had the New York Rangers made the final instead of the Devils, they would have been a much bigger draw.
4. A Perception among casual fans that the Devils will play boring, trap hockey. Hardcore hockey fans know that the Devils are a different team this year, but the old perceptions still linger.
For your info, here are the NHL Stanley Cup Finals TV Ratings from 1995-2011
Year/Network/Average Viewers/Teams
2011 NBC/VS 4.6 million, Boston v. Vancouver
2010 NBC/VS 3.4 6 Chicago v. Philadelphia
2009 NBC/VS 3.1 6 Pittsburgh v. Detroit
2008 NBC/VS 4.479 Pittsburgh vs. Detroit.
2007 NBC/VS 1.764 Ottawa vs. Anaheim
2006 NBC/OLN 2.834 Carolina vs,Edmonton
2005 NHL Season Cancelled
2004 *ABC/ESPN 3.286 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Calgary Flames
2003 *ABC/ESPN 3.627 New Jersey Devils vs. Anaheim Ducks
2002 ABC 5.768 Detroit Red Wings vs. Carolina Hurricanes
2001 ABC 5.058 Colorado Avalanche vs. New Jersey Devils
2000 ABC 5.511 New Jersey Devils vs. Dallas Stars
1999 FOX 4.873 Dallas Stars vs. Buffalo Sabres
1998 FOX 4.830 Detroit Red Wings vs. Washington Capitals
1997 FOX 6.370 Detroit Red Wings vs. Philadelphia Flyers
1996 FOX 5.090 Colorado Avalanche vs. Florida Panthers
1995 FOX 5.210 New Jersey Devils vs. Detroit Red Wings
The average estimate is around 4 million viewers. Will this year’s version top that? Does Marty Brodeur have a enough in the tank to extend this series? Are the Kings forwards going to dominate the Devils stingy defence like many predict will happen? Only time will tell. These are all factors that will affect the ratings, and if the NHL has any interest in cashing in on the Stanley Cup 2012, they need a little help.
…and that is the Last Word.
