The first Saturday in May is quickly arriving. It won’t be long before we see the garland of roses around the 2012 winner of the Kentucky Derby!
It seems as though there are a lot of favorites to win this year, but there is surely no heavy favourite. Arguments can be made for several horses, including my picks, which have changed over and over again as chalks get defeated and others rise to the occasion. This seems to be one of the best crop of three-year-olds in quite some time, and if one of these horses popped up to win the triple crown I would be very shocked. Dare I predict that all three Triple Crown races will have three different “top three” finishers.
Chances are the lowest odds in this race are going to be 4-1, and my guess is that Union Rags will be taking just a little more money than the rest. With his last performance only being a third in the Florida Derby, is that enough to consider him the top contender? Perhaps.
Compared to a horse like Bodemeister who absolutely romped over the field in the Arkansas Derby beating his own stable mate by an incredible and increasing 9+ lengths. Now that’s what I like to see; a horse that improved from his last race, where he ran second to another top contender, Creative Cause.
Although narrowly beaten in the Santa Anita Derby this Creative Cause is definitely going to be hard to pass up in any bet. Whether you are betting to win, which he has a great shot at, he is certainly a player in any exactor, triactor, or superfecta. This horse proved he likes to run two-turns, ran third in the Breeders Cup and I personally believe he will be a contender come Derby day.
If this is the case how can you not include the horse that beat him in the SA Derby, I’ll Have Another? This horse is showing nothing but promise winning his last two races and bringing his jockey from Canada along for the ride. Mario Gutierrez will likely be riding in his first Kentucky Derby and you got to like his chances and his story!
Getting away from the west coast now, the Wood Memorial was a very good race with two more likely favorites for the derby finishing first and second. Gemologist looked as though he was going to get beat at the 1/8 pole as Alpha swooped up right beside him only to get turned away. Castellano had something left in the gas tank as Gemologist was earged on and responded as Alpha never got a nose in front. Can’t count out a repeat performance in the Derby from these two, every shot in the world for another 1-2 outing.
Now, the beautiful Hansen, yes he ran second in the Blue Grass, one of his two second-place finishes while winning all three of his other starts. The Blue Grass ran on the synthetic surface at Keenland was won by a horse proven to love that surface, Dullahan. After running second to the injured Algorithms in the Holy Bull, he then turned out a very impressive victory in the Gotham. Maybe after running second again the gorgeous grey is ready to bounce back and beat the best three-year olds in the land.
These are going to be the top choices come May 5th, but we all know this does not mean the only choices. Upsets are always happening, and some have their best performances in front of the largest crowds, while others crumble.
Other very fine athletes running with every chance to win are; Secret Circle; Mark Valeski; Rousing Sermon; Take Charge Indy; Daddy Nose Best; and definitely not to be forgotten about, Went the Day Well, who has the same prep races and the same jockey/trainer combo as last year’s winner of the Derby.
Well here it is, on the biggest stage, the mass amounts of money gambled on this race, I am going to place my small chump change wager in. I got dreams too, this tri could pay $50,000 or $500 but I am going with my top four picks, a $1 tri box Hansen, Gemologist, Alpha and Rousing Sermon.
…and that is the last word.
