The picks are back, baby! We have dug ourselves out of an ugly 0-4-1 hole and now sit at 16-14-4 on the season. Week four was missed due to technical difficulties (would have went 11-6). In week’s five and six I went exactly .500 (13-13). I saw this coming and that’s why I sat those week’s out and not because I am supremely lazy. Either way the picks are here to stay for the rest of the season , so tune in every weekend for the freest picks on the Internet. This figures to be a tough week with a lot of crooked numbers on the board but let’s take a shot.
(Home team in caps)
Indy +9 over TENNESSEE – This is a large number to cover especially in a divisional game. The line is slightly inflated because of the Colts blowout last week at the hands of the Saints. It is tough to know how they will respond to such a thorough beating, especially as a winless team with no hope. But if we try to factor that in then we exclude the fact Tennessee got a similar beating at home against Houston. What matters is that the Titans have only put up over 26 points once on the season and that was with a defensive TD. The Colts on the other hand were playing very competitive before last week, never losing by 9 or more in the previous 5 weeks.
Minnesota +3.5 over CAROLINA – The “Wasted Career” game of the week. Adrian Peterson continues to run hard for a 1-6 team that really is not even that good at run blocking anymore. Steve Smith has rejuvenated his career with the best QB he has ever had a chance to play with. At a position where you are totally dependent on the quarterback for your success Steve Smith has had impressive run with a bunch of poor QB’s. I don’t know if there is anything more impressive than what Steve Smith has done the last 10 years. For this week I like Peterson because Carolina has the worst run D in the league and I liked how they were able to play against the Packers last week.
HOUSTON -9.5 over Jacksonville and NEW YORK GIANTS -9.5 over Miami – usually I would have a hard time looking at those points and then grabbing the favorite. But these two dogs are special – they can’t score TD’s. Jacksonville has 6 TD’s all season and this includes their Hail Mary against Carolina right before half-time. They also rank dead last in yards per drive and passing offense. Miami is in shambles from top to bottom and Matt Moore hasn’t helped the situation. They have scored four TD’s in five games since week one. This includes only one TD in 2.5 games since Matt Moore took over at QB. If these teams do decide to score some points on Sunday the Giants and Texans have shown the ability to score into the 30’s.
New Orleans -13.5 over ST. LOUIS – The Saints aren’t always the most reliable road team, and this time they are coming off a blow-out win and have a big re-match versus Tampa next week. If Sam Bradford was starting this game I wouldn’t like it. But I just can’t back A.J. Feely at this point. The Rams suck and their QB isn’t even playing. New Orleans scored 62 points last week and the Rams have scored 56 points all season. What more do you need to know?
BALTIMORE -12.5 over Arizona – Maybe I am insane for backing the Ravens and so many points after last week. But I just don’t like backing Kevin Kolb. It’s that simple.
BUFFALO -4.5 over Washington – Buffalo is technically the home team here but I am not sure how much advantage is gained from playing in the large and lonely Skydome. I hate everything about this game, but I will lean towards the rested team over the squad with all the skill position injuries. One good point I heard this week is that maybe because the Bills don’t totally suck this year for the first time in forever the Toronto fans will actually show up to the Skydome to cheer them on this week. Maybe.
Detroit -1.5 over DENVER – This is not a lead pipe lock but I can’t see any reason to take Denver here. Detroit has struggled on offense recently, especially on 3rd down. They also can’t run the ball at all. This makes them one-dimensional and puts too much pressure on Stafford. Stafford is proving he has a great arm but is not the most accurate passer. So when you have an all pass offense you are not doing to have many sustained drives with an inaccurate QB. But on the other hand you have the Denver offense. They had 0 points for over 50 minutes last week against Miami, and while the Detroit offense is struggling the defense is a solid unit. How does a team that was a 5 point favorite over Atlanta last week go to only a 1.5 favorite at Denver the next week. I like Detroit here, whether Stafford or Hill is starting at QB.
Cleveland +9 over SAN FRAN – 9 points is way too much for Alex Smith to handle. He won’t know what to do with all those points. I am afraid that the Cleveland offense which doesn’t make any big plays is going to be bottled up by the San Fran D because they can’t stretch the field. I am really afraid of the San Fran special teams making one big play and blowing this one wide-open. But then I think of Alex Smith and 9 points and I know what to do.
SEATTLE +1 over Cincy – This line has dropped from 3 points down to 1, and most people have been taking Cincy! Makes me wish I wrote this on Thursday. Seattle only getting 1 point is an ugly proposition but I think Cincy’s 4 victories have them slightly over-rated. Seattle is a tough place to play and as unlikely as it may seem I think this is Cincy’s second toughest game of the season.
New England -2.5 over PITTSBURGH – This is a real tough game to pick but I am happy to grab it at 2.5. At 3 I might go for the Steelers. Here is what I think I know. The Patriots score 30 points every game. The Steelers usually don’t have an answer to stop Brady so I don’t see why they would have one now. So it is up to the Steelers offense to score with the Pats. As bad as the Patriots defense is I just don’t feel very good about the Pittsburgh attack right now. Even when they were hanging 30 on Arizona last week I never felt like they were a power house.
Dallas +3 over PHILLY – Did the bye week make everyone forget that Philly is not a good team? I know that Andy Reid usually has his team prepared after a bye but how much better could they really have gotten? To me Dallas is clearly a better team. I would say this is close to 50-50 for who wins the game. So getting the 3 points is just gravy.
KANSAS CITY +3.5 over San Diego – Norv Turner taking his team on the road to Arrowhead for Monday Night Football against a division rival with a decided home field advantage and the game is on Halloween. Oh Yeah!
Last week: 8-4-1
Season: 16-14-4
