Tune in each week for picks against the spread for every game. Until we get more information however I will just discuss a handful of games I feel best about.
Before we get to the picks lets recap some things we should have learned from week 1:
Taking a poor team as a -6.5 home favorite is never a good idea – Cleveland was not that good, and everyone knew it. So why was everyone so eager to pick them against the spread and even consider them as a suicide pick? Because of the lowly Bengals. Week 1 reminded us why bad teams are bad teams. The Browns run game got taken away and they had no answers. Even with several chances to ice the game near the end they came up empty and it was the Bengals who made the plays to win the game. Which reminds me…
Cincy Bengals, not that terrible – I picked them to have one win this year because of their QB situation, this was a mistake. In reality Marvin Lewis has a talented roster in some important areas. Their o-line is strong and allows them to run the ball all day long without putting pressure on their QB. But the highlight of the team is their front 7. They are physical against the run and they collapse the pocket againt the pass. This front 7 allows them to keep the game close while trying to win the field position battle.
Tennessee Titans – Hasselbeck looked inaccurate on his deep throws all day and the new Head Coach did not show a commitment to running with Chris Johnson. The o-line which I thought would be the strength of the team also got out played by the Jacksonville d-line. Let’s put them on the watch list but I fear I may have over-rated them.
Denver Broncos – I thought with their O-Coordinator returning and most of their offense intact they could still look something like last year on offense while patching together a better defense. There is still time for this to happen but I underestimated the lack of talent up front for this team. They played the Raiders who are big on the O and D-lines and got pushed around all night. Denver simply won’t have the talent on either line to compete with the best teams in the league, or even a physical team. Look for the Bengals to play a similar style to Oakland this week.
Minnesota Vikings – Any time you pass for less than 50 yards you go immediately to the watch list for potentially crappy teams. Is Mcnabb totally done? If he doesn’t show me something this week at home against a Bucs defense that got lit up last week then I have to jump ship.
Buffallo Bills – Nice victory Buffalo Bills but I have seen this before. You can’t fool me. I think if they play this way for 15 or maybe 16 more weeks then I will believe.
Home team in CAPS
WASHINGTON -3.5 over Arizona – Carolina and Arizona played a close duel in week one. Because it was a back and forth game with lots of passing yards everyone seems to be forgetting these are two really bad teams. Washington on the other hand is a solid team with a defense that is playing fast. I feel like if this game happens in week 6 the spread is -7.5. Plus it is always fun to light money on fire by wagering on Rex Grossman.
Baltimore -5.5 over TENNESSEE – I have backed off of this pick a little bit because they seem to be a public favorite this week (meaning everyone is jumping on them). But I can’t get the images of Matt Hasselbeck playing in week one out of my head. Add in the fact that Baltimore always shows up on the road and I feel comfortable taking them.
Dallas -3 over SAN FRAN – I don’t get the line. Dallas went on the road and outplayed a strong Jets team before gagging the victory away. San Fran struggled to move the ball all day against Seattle. And if you watched Alex Smith you realize that San Fran has about a 5% chance of getting a TD every time they are in the Red Zone. I’m not saying Dallas can’t screw us all again, i’m just saying that at only 3 points there is no way you can take San Fran.
Chicago +6.5 over NEW ORLEANS – I don’t feel as solid about this pick as the others but I think you are getting good value here. Chicago plays ugly so they are very undervalued by everyone, but it is the Saints that have yet to prove they can play on both sides of the ball. Chicago has a reputation as a poor road team but their defense usually likes to play on turf. I admit I don’t know who this game will play out but I know 6.5 points is too much.
San Diego +7 over NEW ENGLAND – Beware of the Norv Turner on the road factor. Other than that 7 points is way too much. These are two of the top 6 teams in the league and there is no way a TD seperates them. They played last year and the Chargers shut down the Pats offense all day long even though the Pats were able to squeak out a victory.
… and thats the Last Word.
