The Patriots are the defending Super Bowl champions, but they have a unique problem going into this season. Their star quarterback, Tom Brady, is embroiled in the “Deflategate” cheating scandal that’s devolved into a he-said, she-said shouting match in Federal Court. For now, Tom Brady is suspended for the first four games of the 2015 season. If he can win his court case, he’ll get to play those games; if he can’t, the suspension will stand. That makes game planning difficult for coach Bill Belichick and the rest of the New England Patriots, and it makes predicting the Patriots first four games difficult for observers.
It’s impossible to handicap the Patriots’ first four games without knowing whether their quarterback will be Tom Brady or backup Jimmy Garropolo, so we’re going to try something unique: we’re going to predict each of the match-ups for both scenarios. Here are the first four games of the Patriots’ season, and our predictions for what would happen with and without Tom Brady.
GAME 1: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
As the defending Super Bowl champs, the Patriots get to play at home on a Thursday night in the very first game of the NFL season. They’ll take on another tough AFC squad, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Complicating this prediction is the fact that Tom Brady isn’t the only one suspended for this game: so is Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount and the Steelers best running back, Le’Veon Bell.
With Brady: The Patriots aren’t as good as they were last year, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with. They’re at home, playing on the day they raise the banner, and (if Brady is around), celebrating a victory over the league itself. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ loss of Le’Veon Bell is bigger than the Patriot’s loss of Blount. PATRIOTS WIN.
Without Brady: Last year’s championship Patriots could have won this game even without their star quarterback, but this year’s squad inspires less confidence. Not having to deal with Le’Veon Bell is still huge for the Pats mediocre run defense, but Jimmy Garoppolo is no Ben Roethlisberger. STEELERS WIN.
GAME 2: @ Buffalo Bills
The Bills have a long history of being beaten up on by the Patriots, but this is a pretty impressive new squad. The Bills defense was one of the best in the league last year, and they’re only going to get better after adding defensive wizard Rex Ryan as head coach. The Bills offense? Well, that remains a concern.
With Brady: The Bills defense is good, but Brady is still Brady. He may not run up the score, but he should at least be able to outscore a weak Bills offense that has former Ravens backup, Tyrod Taylor under center. PATRIOTS WIN.
Without Brady: Brady has the experience that it takes to handle high-pressure defenses, but it’s hard to expect much of Jimmy Garoppolo. The Patriots face the very real possibility of sending Garoppolo out on week two against a defense that could easily be the best in the league this year. BILLS WIN.
GAME 3: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars weren’t any good last year, but they are a team on the rise. With Blake Bortles developing as a quarterback and a tough squad of defensive backs that has drawn fire this preseason for rough play, the Jaguars are capable of being a surprise team – as long as they can figure out how to protect their quarterback.
With Brady: Winning at home is something that Brady always expects to do. Winning against the Jaguars? That’s a given. PATRIOTS WIN.
Without Brady: Garropolo has looked pretty good in his limited starts for the Patriots so far. With his skill and the very good team that surrounds him, beating the Jaguars at home should be very doable. PATRIOTS WIN.
GAME 4: @ Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are going to be an interesting team this year. Their main issue will be finding a way to make up for the loss of RB DeMarco Murray, who was huge for Dallas last year but now plies his trade in Philadelphia.
With Brady: Brady in a dome? Are you kidding? Brady has always fared better when he’s better protected from the wind, and this Patriots team, while less complete than last years, is still every bit as good as the Cowboys. PATRIOTS WIN.
Without Brady: We haven’t given Jimmy Garoppolo very many breaks against competitive teams, but we feel strongly that he can win this one. A weaker run attack is great news for the Patriots defense, and while Dez Bryant might put some points up on their secondary, we think Garoppolo can make up for it – especially with a bye week to recover and plan for the game. PATRIOTS WIN.
So there you have it: 4-0 with Brady, 2-2 with Garoppolo. It’s no knock on Garoppolo – there are some real tough games in these first four – but there can be little doubt that the Patriots will see an impact in their record if Brady’s suspension isn’t vacated.
