Early goals. Late goals. Last year the New York Red Bulls made a habit of scoring both, rescuing points throughout the Supporters Shield-winning season. Both have been hard to come by this year for RBNY, unless you are the opposition. The Red Bulls defense has given up a lot of goals in the first 15 minutes of games this season. In addition, they have gone behind four times in the last five games: a number that is much more likely to climb if you analyze each game since the start of the season. For the team, coaches, and fans, it is a frustration to which there seems no relief. The worst part about it is that most of the games they have played, they have had the upper hand before the Red Bulls defense give up a goal against the run of play. So there are two fundamental questions that must be answered: Why is it happening? How do we fix it?
What is the common factor? There is no pattern to it. If you were to only take these stats at face value, you would never be able to understand. I theorized on the reasons for the defensive shortcomings before I started writing, a sometimes dangerous analytical style that will usually result in the writer finding the data that they are looking for and discarding the facts. To avoid this, I decided to first research what many others are pointing to as the reason for the often flaccid display of the defense, and then to analyze what I see as the symptoms and cause. Leave few stones unturned; Sherlock Holmes it, if you will.
When you ask most fans about defensive troubles, they almost universally point to personnel. This is a perfectly rational and reasonable conclusion. It is a simple answer to any question. If you don’t have good players, no matter the coaching, you will not succeed. The Red Bulls have started 6 different CBs through all competitions thus far. Let’s look at a couple of stats associated with these players (tackles and turnovers over the last 5 games):
| OPP | Result | CB Pair | Tackles Won | Tackles Lost | Interceptions | Poss. Lost | Unsuccessful Passes |
| MTL | 4-2 W | Olave/Sekagya | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 |
| CHI | 0-1 L | Sekagya/Miller | 5 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 22 |
| NE | 2-1 W | Sekagya/Miazga | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 13 |
| RSL | 1-1 D | Olave/Sekagya | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| SJ | 1-1 D | Olave/Sekagya | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
What conclusions can we draw from this data? Well, the first thing that should jump out is that there is no consistency to these stats. Certainly they don’t seem to factor into the final score. Only the Chicago game has a result that reflects the stats (It should be noted however that Chicago didn’t look the better team, but managed to win by relying on some very poor finishing from RBNY). Turnovers, whether they be in the form of tackles or errant passes, far outweigh regaining possession. Again though, this is only looking at the CBs, not the whole team. But if the CBs were losing possession far more often than they were winning possession, it is reasonable to assume that they would be giving up more goals, yet only one of these games had more than one goal surrendered. Another sign that the problem probably isn’t in the back. While most can agree that there is a big question mark at who should start next to Olave, if the CB’s were playing as poorly as is supposed, you would see a lot more multi-goal games.
Interestingly enough, if you were to ask Red Bull fans which defense would you rather have, last year’s supporters shield winners or this year’s crew, unequivocally the answer would be last year’s team. So far this year’s team has a lower goals against average. 1.16 GAA where as last year’s team had a 1.20 GAA.
Some have blamed the fullbacks for straying too far from home and not making enough of an effort to recover. It is certainly true that wingbacks that negate their defensive responsibilities for forays into the attack can be a coach’s bane. It causes CBs to leave the center of the field, drawn out to the wings to cover their absent comrades, which creates space in the middle of the field for the opposing team to operate. However, we are rarely seeing opponents’ crosses end up in the back of the net against the Red Bulls. It does happen, but now with enough consistency for this to be the root cause of the team’s struggles. Again, we would expect more multi-goal losses if this were the case. Let’s take a look at their stats over the last 5 games in the same categories as the CBs. The idea is, if the fullbacks are losing the ball up the field and not recovering, then that should be reflected in the stats.
| OPP | Result | Fullbacks | Tackles Won | Tackles Lost | Interceptions | Poss. Lost | Unsuccessful Passes |
| MTL | 4-2 W | Duvall/Miller | 3 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 23 |
| CHI | 0-1 L | Duvall/Oyongo | 2 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 23 |
| NE | 2-1 W | Duvall/Miller | 2 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 31 |
| RSL | 1-1 D | Duvall/Miller | 3 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 23 |
| SJ | 1-1 D | Duvall/Oyongo | 4 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 29 |
Again, there is no clear-cut pattern here. If the major cause of Red Bulls leaking goals is the fullbacks getting caught up the field, then we should see more goals conceded in games when this is happening. As the stats reflect, however, they gave up more goals in the game they lost possession the least. This is a really long winded way of saying that there is no clear evidence that links the goals conceded to possession or tackle stats. We are left with analyzing the goals as the only true means of understanding what is going on. This is the basis of my theory, and I think you will see a pattern form.
The Red Bulls have given up a lot of goals on the counter this year. It is part of the reason why the fullbacks are getting blamed. Naturally, if the Red Bulls are being exposed on the counter, it must be the fault of the players up-field who are not tracking back, right? Absolutely. Only the players to blame are centrally located and generally way out of position at the start of the counter.
These are the starting positions of the midfield just as the possession is lost and the counter is about to start on four of the six plays that led to goals in the last five games. It is easy to see a pattern here, isn’t it? Look at the positioning of the central midfielders. If this was Be A Pro mode in FIFA, their score would be plummeting. More often than not, when attacks are started by the opposition, the central midfielders are leaving a ton of open space to exploit by overloading a side of the field, or leaving only one CM to cover the ground exposed by the other CM attacking. I call this, the donut. Since this is New York, maybe the bagel is more apt. This puts the Red Bulls defense on their heels and forces them to track four or five attackers making deep runs. This is lethal against two CBs who are not exactly track stars: Olave certainly looks a step slower this year and forget about Armando and Sekagya; those two make Salou Ibrahim look like Usain Bolt.
So what about the other two goals? RSL and Chicago each put one in, but they do not fall into the above category. In the Chicago game, team marking on a throw in was poor which led to the penalty against called Oyongo. The RSL goal? It was created by great team passing that led to a corner kick. Midfielders were a bit out of position on the RSL attack that led to the corner, but it was because Cahill tracked back to make a fine sliding tackle on Olmes Garcia.
One last point to clarify. In most of the cases above, the ball was turned over to start the counter, which would seem to indicate that the wingbacks could have contributed to the issue. However, the possession lost was by a midfielder in all of these cases.
So, what can be done to shore up the Red Bulls defense? It starts further up the field. The wingers and CDM must be more aware of their positioning during the attacking forays of either Cahill or Luyindula. Remember, these players are both essentially “false 9s”; they they are strikers who sit a little deeper and can hold up the ball and make late runs into the box. It is natural for them to want to be in a more advanced position. It is then the winger’s job to pinch in a bit and fill in the space created by that movement rather than bomb up the sideline. Additionally, the fullbacks must make an effort to not both attack at the same time, as symmetry can be deadly.
Finally, if last year’s team taught us anything, you can succeed in the regular season by outscoring your opponent. The key phrase there is “regular season”. Come playoff time, if you leak goals you are dead in the water. Petke has some tough personnel decisions to make for the stretch run, and it could be the difference in making or missing the playoffs. Of the remaining league games, the Red Bulls we be coming up against teams that have a collective goal differential of +10. Remove Houston and Montreal and the GD becomes +50. Goals will be at a premium, and so will clean sheets. The season depends on a response, but if Petke is looking at the backline, his vision is impaired.
