Bad AEW Collision Ratings Are Nothing to Worry About Until They Are

The recent bad AEW Collision ratings are nothing to worry about yet. The product has a ton of momentum online, and some of the brand-exclusive talent openly talks about pulling out all the stops to try and make the show a hit. A decrease in ratings from the debut episode is almost a given, as is a major decrease on a holiday weekend. AEW had the misfortune of compounding those two things into the span of two weeks may be poor programming in the technical sense. That being said, there is nothing right now suggesting that Collision is doing any worse than would be expected as a new show still building an audience. 

AEW Collision Ratings: Not Worrying Yet

Everybody Has a Slump Over The Holidays

The numbers are in, and Raw also hit a slump on the July 3rd Raw, just days after a massive international premium live event. Brandon Thurston of Wrestlenomics is widely considered an authority on ratings, and the results showed a noticeable decrease for Raw. This comes despite a big night. Brock Lesnar and Cody reignited their feud upon the former’s return, Judgment Day showed off the Money in the Bank briefcase, and Drew McIntyre made his Raw return, following a reported contract negotiation. 

WWE Raw on USA Network on Monday, 8-11pm:

1,828,000 viewers
P18-49 rating: 0.49
📊https://t.co/qDSSxyAPtr pic.twitter.com/p5V9bFEur8

— Wrestlenomics (@wrestlenomics) July 5, 2023

People are busy during the holidays. Every year WWE runs full shows around Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s, and more. Usually pre-taped, these episodes are seldom necessary to watch because WWE knows nobody is watching. The weekend before Independence Day was always bound to have a limited audience. People are traveling or hosting family, far too busy to sit down and watch wrestling. Pointing to a time when almost all TV is down as evidence of a failing show is alarmist at best, or it could be a ruse.  

Not Everyone is Talking in Good Faith

It can hurt to admit this as a lifelong wrestling fan, but some aspects of the online fandom can be a bit much. Tribalism between AEW and WWE is not a new concept. It has been discussed since before the first episode of Dynamite aired. There are some considerable differences between the two shows. While some enjoy both products, it makes sense that people would prefer one. What you enjoy about professional wrestling will inform which show you gravitate toward, among other considerations like your schedule and the costs for premium events or live shows. 

While this is not in any way a WWE-specific issue and should not be treated as such, some accounts on social media are pointing out these ratings to attack AEW. Three shows into the run are way too early to call for the demise of a new show. Even notoriously bad scripted tv usually gets away with at least 5 or 6 episodes. Accounts seeking to promote the narrative that Collision has been a failure may be doing so in earnest now. However, plenty of the initial buzz that took over social media was from accounts looking to pick this fight. To react in any dramatic way to a mostly fabricated perception would undo a ton of planning by the AEW team and could honestly make things worse for the show. 

AEW Collision Ratings are Nothing to Worry About….Unless You Are Tony Khan

AEW Collision ratings are nothing to worry about yet, but they can’t be discounted entirely. While we have yet to see a real issue, it is far more likely that Collision will fail than succeed if television trends hold up. The problem isn’t on Khan or his team, either. The roster is strong, the shows are giving fans exactly what they want, and the writing and storytelling are on par with the rest of their product. All that data goes to say that if you like AEW Dynamite, you will also like AEW Collision. However, enjoying a show doesn’t guarantee you will watch it, certainly not live. Saturday is a tough time for almost all television. As the year progresses, it will only get more challenging for a scripted series.

Saturday Night is Alright for Fighting, But Not Live Television

People do not watch television on Saturday nights. Now yes, some people watch television on Saturday nights, and thousands watch AEW. As a general rule, though, Saturday night is more of a social time. Very few people would stay home and watch television instead of seeing family and friends or going out to do something with others. This is not new or debatable; recent ratings have supported this claim. Plenty of articles have covered Nielsen’s findings, and even the Bureau of Labor Statistics has covered television trends during the past several years and come to similar conclusions.  

AEW Collision, Saturday on TNT (8-10pm):

452,000 viewers
P18-49 rating: 0.13

Nearly the same as Friday's Rampage (450k total, 0.13 P18-49)
📊 https://t.co/qDSSxyAPtr pic.twitter.com/PrKAxHhqkc

— Wrestlenomics (@wrestlenomics) July 5, 2023

Apart from specific groups of people who are all fans of the upstart promotion, turning AEW Collision into a group activity on a Saturday evening is unlikely. As a social activity, the critical demo seems far more likely to be with a group of friends outside. Additionally, older viewers have family and other commitments on Saturday evenings. 

Increased Competition for Eyes on Saturdays

People can get together to watch television as a social activity, but professional wrestling has yet to reach that phase of existence. Also, AEW is less than five years old. It doesn’t have the same recognition as, say, WWE, which has been around for nearly the entire lifespan of the key 18-49-year-old demo. If WWE can’t maintain a Saturday show, and it has tried a few times before, AEW will have an even more difficult time. To further the AEW and WWE divide, most of WWE’s premium live events are taking place on Saturdays now. A standard episode or wrestling television going up against a major event will always be a mismatch, and it can happen two or three times a month, depending on WWE’s slate of shows. 

Outside the wrestling ring, non-scripted sports will also pose a massive problem for Collision’s numbers in the future. Sports like football, particularly, run games that rule the ratings on most Saturdays. Each game is different, the stakes are incredibly high, and everyone can at least pretend to care about the game. Every wrestling fan knows friends who will not even try to watch pro wrestling. With weekends being better for social viewing, getting a whole room to watch wrestling will be a challenge. That challenge becomes a fool’s errand when an important game is on. AEW Collision will have a hard time keeping its most ardent fans on when the sports calendar heats up, so improving their numbers will be nearly impossible. 

Why AEW Collision Ratings Are Nothing to Worry About Yet

So Saturday is a tough day for television, and there is an active narrative that the show is a failure after just a few weeks. Why say AEW Collision ratings are nothing to worry about yet? Well, because Collision may not need to get stellar ratings to be totally profitable. Looking at the launch of AEW’s newest brand coincided with the return of the controversial CM Punk. Rumors are that Punk wouldn’t work with certain other stars. Collision gets Tony Khan his most marketable star back. That means that his PPVs will have more intrigue and hopefully better numbers. Also, marketers and advertisers don’t just need TV. Now viral videos and social posts can be monetized by advertisers. Although Collision may never get appointment viewing, it can get Twitter engagement like anything else. This means Collision will be a success based on what it is meant to accomplish. 

 As long as AEW can keep their television partners happy, and Dynamite on Wednesdays will play a big part, Collision on Saturdays can live in their own world. It gives CM Punk, other disenfranchised superstars, and a roster of younger talent not getting any real opportunity a sandbox to build in. In all sincerity, that is what many AEW fans love about the promotion. It feels like all of their independent wrestling dream matches come to life, and Collision will do that just fine and share it with the masses online. If Collision needs to grow the audience monthly to stay alive, then history and trends say it has almost no shot. Still, if it can remain relevant enough for a less coveted spot on Saturdays, then it can be a critical part of the AEW brand all the same.