After a fun and exciting wild-card weekend, the NFL’s divisional round of the playoffs will take place this weekend. The wild-card winners will look to pull off some road upsets, but it will not be easy. There are a lot of fresh, interesting matchups that have some intriguing narratives. Let’s take a look at what we have in store.
Divisional Round Predictions
San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings pulled off a major upset in New Orleans last week. This week, they look to do it again. Against the Saints, Minnesota dominated most of the game. Kirk Cousins played very well, and they led 20-10 in the fourth quarter. However, the Saints would come charging back. The football version of Jesus Taysom Hill caught a touchdown, and kicker Wil Lutz would tie the game at the buzzer. The Vikings offense seemed to be slowing down, but that did not matter come overtime. A fantastic Cousins bomb to Adam Thielen put the Vikings in scoring range, and Kyle Rudolph caught the game-winning touchdown a few players later.
On the other side, the 49ers have been incredible all season. The defense was scorching hot to start the year, and although they have cooled off, the offense has picked up the slack. Kyle Shanahan‘s incredible playcalling combined with Jimmy Garoppolo‘s talent has led to some fun games late in the year. Tight end George Kittle is arguably the best player in football, and Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel round out a great receiving corps.
On the other side of the ball, this team is arguably better. Coverage is the most important part of the defense and they have it. Richard Sherman is arguably the best corner in football, and other young studs like Jimmie Ward and D.J. Reed have stepped up. The pass rush is also critical to defensive success, and they have it. Nick Bosa is the odds-on favorite for defensive rookie of the year, and he is complemented by the likes of Arik Armstead, Dee Ford, and DeForest Buckner. Needless to say, this team is stacked.
Baby Goat
Garoppolo seems similar to 2003 Tom Brady. Although he has much better weapons, there are some strong similarities. Neither of them consistently produced, but when push comes to shove, they take it to a new gear. The 49ers epic 48-46 win over New Orleans reminded me of the Indianapolis Colts–New England Patriots game in 2003, in which the Patriots won 38-34. These types of games have led me to believe that whenever the game is on the line, Garoppolo, like Brady, comes through.
With that being said, I expect the Vikings to take an early lead. The 49ers offense will stall, and they will look dead at times. Garoppolo will lead San Fran back into the game with a few late scores, but Cousins will answer with a field goal to put Minnesota back in front. With the game on the line inside the two-minute warning, Garoppolo will lead a heroic game-winning drive and send the Niners to the NFC championship game.
Score Prediction: 26-23
Who will they be facing?
Rematch
In 2014, Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks stunned Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in a wild NFC championship game. Rodgers was unable to convert four Wilson interceptions into touchdowns, and the Packers led by only 16 points despite dominating all game. Seattle came storming back, and Wilson hit Jermaine Kearse for a long touchdown in overtime, ending the game. This time around, the Packers are looking for revenge.
2019 has been an odd year for Green Bay. The Packers went 13-3 despite struggling throughout the year, as evidenced by their DVOA, in which they rank only 10th in the league. In terms of weighted DVOA, they are even worse. Their 4.8 percent weighted DVOA ranks just 13th in the league, trailing non-playoff teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys. Despite all of this, they are just a couple wins away from a Super Bowl.
The Seahawks have a playcalling issue. In their wild-card win over Philly, they nearly blew the game, despite Wilson producing at an incredibly high level. Per Pro Football Reference, Wilson produced an astonishing 0.63 EPA/play. Just to give an idea of what that means, Peyton Manning had a 0.41 EPA/play in his historic 2013 campaign. Despite Wilson’s great performance, Seattle scored just 17 points. Why? Because they ran the ball way too much. Ball carriers Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch compiled a pathetic 19 yards on 17 rushing attempts. The rushing offense as a whole averaged -0.25 EPA/play, which completely killed their offense. Pete Carroll is one of the coaches who believes in delusions of establishing the run, however, so I doubt his strategy will change this week.
Out of Place
Seattle and Green Bay rank just ninth and 13th in weighted DVOA, respectively. Despite that, one of these teams will play in the NFC championship game. This game is a tossup. The Packers have home-field advantage, and it should be cold. However, the Seahawks are probably a better team. There will be many factors deciding this game, making it tough to forecast. Since Seattle has a major advantage in the quarterback department, I have them winning this game. Rodgers will struggle, and Wilson will overcome his coaching and ice the game with some heroics at the end.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 23, Packers 14
A New Era
The Titans committed regicide by entering Foxborough and beating the reigning champs by the skin of their teeth. Some major mental errors from New England cost them some scoring opportunities, and essentially Tennessee won by a point. However, they made some coaching mistakes that kept the game close. If they want to beat Baltimore, they need to realize that they messed up the week before.
Derrick Henry ran rampant in the first half over New England. Bill Belichick had no answer, and the Titans’ run game led to an easy 14 points for Tennessee. During halftime, Belichick was able to adjust. This is where Titans coach Mike Vrabel made a bad decision. He decided to continue running the ball with Henry, but it failed miserably. Because of this, Tennessee failed to score an offensive point in the second half. They won, but that was in spite of their second-half strategy, not because of it. To continue advancing, the Titans need to air it out with Ryan Tannehill, who is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback this season.
You have heard it all about Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is unstoppable. The Ravens weighted DVOA of 50 percent is absurdly good, far and away the best in the league. Their quarterback is generational. The offensive line is stacked with studs. Their defense has stepped up in the second half of the year. Who can stop them? I will not choose against this team, even though I do think they could be vulnerable.
For the Titans to win, they need to get ahead early. We have not seen Lamar play from behind very much, and there is a good chance that he might struggle if he is trailing. However, I do not think this will happen. The Ravens are too good, and they will most likely win handily. With that being said, there is a solid chance of an upset.
Score Prediction: Ravens 38, Titans 24
Elementary, My Dear Watson
Although I struggled in my wild card picks, I was spot on with my Bills-Texans analysis. I predicted that the Bills would jump out to an early lead, but Deshaun Watson would use his incredible talent to win the game. I was right. With the game on the line in overtime, Watson broke two sacks, and hit his running back in stride. This led to a game-winning field goal, and sent Houston to the next round.
The Chiefs are very good, but they are vulnerable. Patrick Mahomes has been incredible yet again this season, but he hasn’t been his MVP self. He has struggled with accuracy at times this year, and that might be some minor cause for concern. He is still uber-talented and can make any throw at any time, but there is a crack in his armor. With that being said, the KC defense has improved. After ranking 26th in defensive DVOA last year, that number has gone up to 14th in the league, a very respectable number. Kansas City was on the doorstep of the Super Bowl last year, and they have a good chance of getting there this time around.
Ultimately, the Chiefs are a lot better than the Texans. However, I believe the Texans will win. I think Mahomes will struggle with accuracy and KC will have red-zone problems. Even though I am an analytics guy, I believe Watson has the “it” factor. He will come through in the clutch like he did last week, and the Texans will win a game they probably shouldn’t have.
Score Prediction: Texans 17, Chiefs 15
