NFL Wild Card weekend kicks off this Saturday, and playoff football will continue until the Super Bowl in February. With this, 12 hungry teams will vie for the coveted Lombardi Trophy. This weekend, eight of those teams will square off in hopes of advancing to the divisional round. It is unlikely that these wild card teams will move past the divisional round, but this season’s crop of Super Bowl hopefuls could alter that narrative.
NFL Wild Card Weekend: Some Not-So Wild Takes
The “Mediocre ESPN Game” Annual
A combination of a weak schedule and significant offensive improvement has led to a 10-6 record and a playoff berth for the Buffalo Bills. The offense is still mediocre, but their DVOA has shot up over 20 percent this season. An improved run game and the addition of key play-makers Dawson Knox and John Brown has allowed the offense to complement their elite defense nicely. Their defense has sustained its success, ranked second in DVOA last season and sixth this season.
There are a few key guys that have been playing at a high level on defense for a long time. Tre’Davious White has been one of the best corners in football this season, and his six interceptions tie the league lead. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are a dynamic safety duo, and Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson round out a very solid pass rush. While the offense is not great, this defensive core might cause some problems for playoff teams.
A Second Shot
The Houston Texans hosted a Wild Card game last season, only to get thoroughly dominated by Andrew Luck‘s Indianapolis Colts. Young superstar quarterback Deshaun Watson performed very poorly in his playoff debut, and he hopes to make up for it the second time around.
This Texans team is talented but incredibly flawed. They traded star pass rusher, Jadeveon Clowney, to the Seattle Seahawks in the preseason, and no replacement has stepped up yet. Aside from nose tackle D.J. Reader and safety Justin Reid, the Texans defense has been a barren wasteland of defensive talent. Luckily for Houston, their defense will be adding future hall of fame pass rusher J.J. Watt for the playoffs. Watt tore his pectoral muscle in the middle of the season and was expected to miss the rest of the year. Fortunately, Watt has been designated to return and will play in the entire playoffs, however many games that will be.
As far as the game goes, I believe it will be a close, low scoring affair. Sean McDermott will come out with a strong gameplan, and the Bills will be rolling early. Unfortunately for them, Allen will struggle, and Watson will utilize his talent to engineer a late scoring drive to put Houston over the top. The outcome should hinge on the performance of the youthful quarterbacks, and Deshaun Watson has the clear advantage.
Prediction: Texans 13, Bills 10
Tannebombs
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has undergone one of the most improbable career revivals the NFL has ever seen. After years of mediocrity in Miami, the Dolphins let the former first-round pick walk free last off-season. The Titans picked him up to backup Marcus Mariota, but the Titans supposed franchise quarterback started the season in familiarly disappointing fashion, and he was benched during an awful performance in Denver. The rest is history.
Tannehill played well throughout the entire season, as he is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback. However, he truly hit his stride after a dynamic victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Since week 12, he has a 94.8 PFF grade. That is on par with 2016-2017 Tom Brady, which is the greatest stretch of quarterback play ever. The second-highest graded quarterback in that stretch, Drew Brees, is sitting at a mere 87.7, far off from Tannehill’s mark.
Still Here?
2019 hasn’t been a roller coaster for the Patriots, but more of a Splash mountain style ride. After a red hot 8-0 start, where the defense was impenetrable and the offense was dynamic, New England has backed into the playoffs with a 4-4 finish to end the year. They snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the Fitzmagic led Dolphins last Sunday, and have been relegated to the wild card round for the first time since 2009.
Backing Into the Playoffs
For the first time since 2006, the Patriots have a defense that ranks in the top-10 in DVOA. Furthermore, it ranks first in the entire league, sitting at -24.6 percent. Continuing a strong finish to 2018, the 2019 defense dominated early on but has slowed down since. Despite having incredible seasons from Stephon Gilmore, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, and Devin McCourty, the defense struggled late in the year. They are just fourth in weighted defensive DVOA, despite putting up historic numbers early on. This unit won’t win it all on their own, and they need some help.
No Offense, but…
The last time the Patriots offense did not rank in the top 10 in DVOA was 2003, in which they ranked 14th. The demise of the Patriots offense has been exaggerated. They are still 11th in offensive DVOA, which is not great but definitely very solid. Brady’s struggles have been grossly overstated. He has played well for the majority season, while maybe not as strong as years past. The receiving core has been a problem. Since Antonio Brown left the team, the receivers haven’t done much of anything. The lack of a tight end has been especially problematic. Rob Gronkowski‘s retirement is rearing its ugly head, and there has been no relief.
Outlook
The Titans have been playing like a better football team in 2019, and they will most likely outplay the Pats again. I expect the Titans to jump out to an early lead because Tannehill will play well and cause some major problems for the New England D. However, Tom Brady is Tom Brady. He will come through in the clutch yet again, leading a game-winning touchdown drive with the game on the line.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Titans 20
Heartbreak
The last time the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints met in the playoffs, Stefon Diggs set rest to New Orleans’ hopes and dreams in the infamous Minnesota Miracle. In this new rendition, the cast has undergone a few changes, but the storyline remains the same for both franchises. Drew Brees is still in search of his second ring to solidify his legacy after another playoff heartbreak. The Vikings are still in search of their first Lombardi, fighting their way back to the playoffs after a one-season hiatus.
In the NFC Championship last season, a return to the Super Bowl was in direct sight for New Orleans. A terrible no-call on a blatant pass interference kept their opponent, the Los Angeles Rams, in the game. This allowed Jared Goff to drive into game-tying field goal range, sending the game to overtime. In the extra period, Brees was intercepted, and the Saints season ended in bitter defeat.
Unfortunate seeding has forced the 13-3 Saints to play in the wild card. Still, 2019 has been another great season for Sean Payton‘s squad. After Brees went down with a hand injury, Teddy Bridgewater stepped in and won all five of his starts. Brees has played great recently, leading the team to more success. They have the best weighted DVOA in the NFC and the second-best overall, only trailing Baltimore.
Monday Night Football, the Sunday Night Football of Monday
For whatever reason, Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins‘ struggles on Monday Night Football have led to a confusing narrative that he cannot handle the big time. It doesn’t really make much sense. Monday Night games have little meaning. Cousins has only played in one playoff game in his career, and he didn’t play that badly. There isn’t much reason to think that Captain Kirk can’t handle the spotlight. This Sunday’s game should be a true test to see if he can handle the “Big Time”, but it won’t be easy in the Superdome.
Prediction: Saints 35, Vikings 24
Battle of the Birds
2019 has been a strange season for the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite only winning nine games, they managed to sneak into the playoffs due to major underachieving from Dallas. All season long, we have heard about how bad their receiving corps is. With Desean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery hurt, the Eagles have turned to unproven youngsters such as J.J. Arcega Whiteside and Greg Ward to make plays. Still, they still have one of the best tight end duos in the league with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, as well as an elite offensive line. The defense is also solid, featuring some of the best pass rushers in the game, Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham. They might not win much, but they aren’t awful.
Back Surgery
The Seattle Seahawks are not a great football team. They have one of the worst offensive lines in football, a coach who thinks establishing the run is important, and an underwhelming defense. On the surface, however, this 11-5 team looks just fine. That is because of Russell Wilson. The star quarterback has been fantastic this season and has carried a mediocre supporting cast. However, I simply do not trust the Seahawks line to hold up, and some costly decisions will lose them the game.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Seahawks 17
