The first week of the 2018 NFL season is finally here. After what can only be called a lackluster Thursday night game, football fans finally have a full slate of games tomorrow. More importantly, fantasy owners finally get to agonize over lineups, regret their drafts, and try to beat their friends in pretend football. It is the greatest time of year. For the most part, fantasy owners’ first week lineup are going to be their top draft picks. However, there are some that I would fade or hold out of lineups to open up the season based on matchups or murky situations. Here is the week one fantasy bust lineup.
Week One Fantasy Bust Lineup
Quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo
Jimmy GQ has been getting a lot of hype in the off-season, and rightfully so. After going unbeaten in his few starts last season, the expectations are massive, from both a football and fantasy standpoint. I have been on the Garoppolo hype train as well, and I still believe he finishes as a top 10 quarterback, yet I am not starting him week one for one reason, the matchup. The Minnesota Vikings have elite defensive talent at all levels and come into the season as a top three unit, possibly the best in the NFL. With Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith locking down the secondary, it will be nearly impossible for Garoppolo to make any big plays. He should be considered a lower end QB2 as opposed to the QB1 spot he was drafted at.
Running Back: Chris Carson
Chris Carson is an interesting case. Currently fighting off first-round pick Rashaad Penny as the main rusher in Seattle, Carson is on a very short leash. He showed flashes a year ago before injuries derailed his season, and he has been a trendy sleeper in drafts. While I think he holds on to this job longer than expected, I would not start Carson this week. Again, the matchup concerns me. The Broncos defense took a hit this off-season when they lost Aqib Talib to the Rams, yet the run defense should still be effective, especially with the addition of Bradley Chubb opposite Von Miller. Seattle also has one of the most questionable offensive lines in football. Along with the fact that I believe they will be down and need to throw in this game, Carson is no more than a desperate flex play.
Running Back: Alfred Morris
The former Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys running back signed with the San Francisco 49ers late in the off-season. After expected lead rusher Jerick McKinnon tore his ACL, Morris received a lot of love as a potential sleeper in the San Francisco offense. He did have his best statistical season under new San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan in Washington, but I am skeptical. Between incumbent Matt Breida stealing passing down work and the matchup with Minnesota, I am fading Morris as much as possible. I need to see it before I trust Morris as a weekly starter.
Wide Receiver: Tyreek Hill
This isn’t a knock on Tyreek Hill. Instead, it is a compliment to the Los Angeles Chargers defense, who was one of the best in the league a year ago at defending the deep ball, which is Hill’s calling card. Factoring that plus a new quarterback, I think Hill is more of a flex play than a top wide receiver.
Wide Receiver: T.Y. Hilton
T.Y. Hilton is coming off one of the worst statistical seasons in his career last year, having to play the entire season without his quarterback Andrew Luck. Now Luck is back, yet I am still hesitant. Luck did not show off his arm at all during the preseason, creating some serious doubt that his arm is the same as it was in year’s past. Hilton, much like Hill, thrives off of big plays, and until I see one happen, it will be hard to trust Hilton.
Tight End: Jimmy Graham
Jimmy Graham has been one of the most popular tight end selections this off-season after signing with the Aaron Rodgers–led Packers. Formerly one of the most polarizing tight ends in football, Graham is now 31 years old. He was only fantasy relevant last season with the Seattle Seahawks due to his crazy stretch of touchdowns in the middle of the season. His yardage totals were way down. Rodgers has never had a fantasy relevant tight end. Some say that he has not had a tight end like Graham before, and yet they said the same things about Martellus Bennett and Jared Cook. I do not think Graham is a top tight end this season at all, and in Week One against a revamped Bears defense, I am avoiding Graham at all costs.
FLEX: Adrian Peterson
Adrian Peterson signed with Washington after Derrius Guice tore his ACL and seemed to immediately take over the early down duties. The future first ballot Hall of Famer showed flashes of his old self in the preseason against Denver, carrying the ball 11 times for 55 yards. He could wind up finishing as a high end flex this season, but he provides zero PPR value with Chris Thompson having the passing downs on lock. He also could lose some of the work to Samaje Perine and/or Rob Kelley. You have to be worried about Peterson until we see his role truly defined. Unless Peterson gets into the endzone, he is no more than a dart throw RB4 this week.
