It’s Week One of the 2018 NFL Season and Nostrathomas has finally awakened from his summer hibernation. Actually, Nostrathomas has been setting his alarm later and later as the seasons go on. It used to be you could learn some things about teams in the preseason but no more. August games have become worthless for fans as well as members of the Four “S” Society (seers, soothsayers, and psychics).
Week 1 has become one of the toughest weeks to predict because we know so little as all 32 teams prepare to break from the starting gate. Still, we must push on. There are bets to be made and money to be won. There are trends to explore and small signs that can guide you in the right direction if you know where to look for them.
Point spreads are from Vegasinsider.com.
Ride These Five Games to the Week 1 Winner’s Circle
Houston Texans +6.5 vs New England Patriots (Sunday 1 PM ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA)
One of the rules set in stone when handicapping NFL games, except for rare exceptions, is to never take the road dog unless you think they can win the game. Nostrathomas believes the Texans can win this game.
New England was the site of Deshaun Watson’s coming out party last season. In Week 3, Watson attempted 33 passes, completed 22 for 301 yards, two touchdowns, threw two interceptions and finished with a 90.6 passer rating. Now he’s back from his torn ACL and still has one of the best wide receivers in the game to throw to in DeAndre Hopkins.
For the Patriots, Tom Brady will be attempting to prove 41 is the new 31 for quarterbacks but will have to do it without Julian Edelman, who will be serving the first of a four-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy. Brady is also going to be staring across the line of scrimmage from the now healthy J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus.
Trends and a Signpost
An interesting trend for New England is that under Bill Belichick the Patriots are 3-4-1 against the spread in Week 1 after having played the previous season in the Super Bowl. There’s also a signpost that Nostrathomas mentioned earlier to observe for this game.
Contrary to popular belief, point spreads are not set in stone. The goal each week for sports books worldwide is to generate bets as evenly as possible on both sides of a point spread. New England opened the week as seven-point favorites and that has dropped a half-point, but no more. Two-thirds of public money has been bet on the Patriots at but the -6.5 spread hasn’t moved.
Normally you would see another half to full-point adjustment by the books to try and get more money to in on Houston. What doesn’t show up when looking at the percentage of money bet on a team though is how much is coming in from professional gamblers (sharps). If a line isn’t moving when it should be, one of the reasons is because professional money is coming in on the other side of the spread, in this case on the Texans.
The conclusion to this is, who are we to tell the pros that they’re wrong. Take the Texans and the boatload of points.
Houston Texans 34 New England Patriots 23
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs New York Giants (Sunday 1 PM ET at MetLife Stadium)
Pat Shurmur has been tasked with waking this sleeping Giants team. The franchise has made only one playoff appearance in seven seasons.
Shurmur won this opportunity by making veteran journeyman Case Keenum look like a genuine NFL quarterback when he was the offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings last season. This year he has 37-year old Eli Manning to try and breathe life into. By the time New York reaches its Bye in Week Nine, Shurmer may be Minnesota dreaming.
On the other side of the field, the Jaguars are still one semi-talented quarterback away from appearing in the first Super Bowl in franchise history. Jacksonville getting to the AFC Championship Game with Blake Bortles calling the shots should give a sharp picture of how good this Jaguars team is, especially on defense.
For the Giants, Odell Beckham is one of the top receivers in the NFL but Jacksonville has one of the few cornerbacks in the league who can successfully shadow him in Jalen Ramsey. The Jaguars also have Telvin Smith and Myles Jack at linebacker to keep rookie running back Saquon Barkley under control.
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 New York Giants 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints -9.5 (Sunday 1 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Superdome)
Football betters need to grab this Week 1 game quick. Even with the spread getting pushed up two points from its open big money is still coming in on the Saints. This one may kickoff as the first double-digit point spread of the season, either at -10.5 or -11.
The Saints will be missing running back Mark Ingram, on a four game suspension for violating the NFL’s PED policy but they have Alvin Kamara and Shane Vereen to back him up. Tampa Bay will be missing starting quarterback Jameis Winston, suspended three games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. To replace him the Buccaneers will start Ryan Fitzpatrick. Who do you think comes out with the short end of the stick on that one. If you guessed not the Saints you’d be right.
In the last four games between these two division rivals, the home team has covered and won. New Orleans has also covered their last five games as the home team against NFC South opponents. It’s going to be a long season for the Buccaneers and it starts Sunday.
New Orleans Saints 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16
Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (Sunday 1 PM Eastern Time at M&T Bank Stadium)
The Ravens want to send out retiring general manager Ozzie Newsome with a postseason run. To do that Baltimore bolstered their receiving and tight end corps to give Joe Flacco more weapons on offense.
The Bills have named Nathan Peterman as their Week 1 starting quarterback. The only real weapon Buffalo has on offense to help is LeSean McCoy.
This game opened with the Ravens as 3.5 point favorites and jumped to the current spread after the Peterman announcement. The word out of Las Vegas is that even with the four point jump they can’t get any bets written on the Bills.
Join the crowd. Baltimore is definitely a touchdown better at home.
Baltimore Ravens 24 Buffalo Bills 10
Los Angeles Rams -4 at Oakland Raiders (Monday 10:20 ET at Oakland Coliseum)
This is the final game of Week 1 and perfectly placed for football handicappers. For those that have seen their bankroll slowly dwindle throughout the weekend, this is the, “I get to buy lunch at work every day next week game.” For those who’ve spent the weekend killing it (see above games for examples) this is the, “let’s start little Timmy’s college fund,” game.
The Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles and Rams spent the entire second half of 2017 at or near the top of Nostrathomas’ Power Rankings. The Raiders were near the bottom. Despite that, this game was a Pick ’em until Oakland/Las Vegas traded Khalil Mack to the Chicago Bears. Los Angeles jumped out as four point favorites after that move but that spread should be higher.
Quarterback Jared Goff can play catch with receiver Brandin Cooks for a while and then let Todd Gurley run all over Frostee Rucker and company. There’s not much the Raiders are going to be able to do about it.
Bet this one early because the spread at kickoff could be as high as six or seven. Otherwise, sleep sound after a successful weekend.
Los Angeles Rams 32 Oakland Raiders 10
The Too Many Questions for Comfort Group
With the remaining 10 games on the Week 1 slate, there are too many variables to even offer them as possibilities to pad your bankroll. Nostrathomas is picking them anyway because hey, that’s what he does. These are all listed by kickoff time.
Sunday Early Games
San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings -6.5
The 49ers won their final five games of 2017 with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. What that means though is defensive coordinators have five more games of Garoppolo on tape than they had before. We’ll get a real feel for him early in 2018.
The Vikings have a Super Bowl caliber defense but can Kirk Cousins carry their offense. In this game we’ll bet he does.
Minnesota Vikings 24 San Francisco 49ers 16
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 vs Cleveland Browns
The Steelers and their fans are ready to run Le’Veon Bell out of town. As for Cleveland are they at a point where they’re good enough to rejoin the NFL?
Pittsburgh Steelers 25 Cleveland Browns 20
Tennessee Titans -1.5 at Miami Dolphins
If you’re playing this game give Gamblers Anonymous a call!
Tennessee Titans 20 at Miami Dolphins 17
Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 at Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck is back behind a weak offensive line. The sharps money is hitting the books heavy on the Bengals.
Cincinnati Bengals 18 Indianapolis Colts 16
Sunday Late Games
Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers
Give Andy Reid nine months to prepare for a game and he’s unbeatable. Since 2014, his record is 6-2 against the spread against the Chargers. Reid also starting the unproven Pat Maholmes at quarterback.
Los Angeles always seem to find the one mistake that kills their Week 1 buzz.
Kansas City Chiefs 25 Los Angeles Chargers 20
Washington Redskins +1 vs Arizona Cardinals
Both teams are starting new Quarterbacks in Week 1, Alex Smith for Washington and Sam Bradford for the Cardinals. We’ll soon get a picture of how each quarterback performs with his new team.
Washington Redskins 21 Arizona Cardinals 18
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers -3
Take the Panthers at home. They were still a playoff team last year. Dallas still has much to prove.
Carolina Panthers 28 Dallas Cowboys 21
Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos -3
The Seahawks defense has come apart at the seams. Defensive ends Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett are gone. Cornerback Richard Sherman has moved down the coast to San Francisco. The only good news is they have safety Earl Thomas returning for Week 1.
The Broncos have decided Case Keenum is their starting quarterback. That should be enough to overcome Seattle this week.
Denver Broncos 22 Seattle Seahawks 18
Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers -7
The Bears have gone from dangerous to vicious on defense with the acquisition of Khalil Mack. The question does quarterback Mitch Trubisky have enough of a handle yet on head coach Matt Nagy’s new offense. There’s no doubt Aaron Rodgers has a handle on his.
Green Bay Packers 23 Chicago Bears 13
Monday Night Football – Early Game
New York Jets at Detroit Lions -6.5
For Week 1 the Jets are starting rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. Detroit is starting veteran Matthew Stafford.
Detroit Lions 30 New York Jets 13
Main photo:
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