Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy has high expectations for himself in Year 1, and the fanbase has just as high expectations for him. He and quarterback Aaron Rodgers are expected to lead the organization to its first playoff win since 2017, an 18-15 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
McCarthy is just the fourth coach for the Steelers since 1969, a sign that the Rooney family enjoys consistency in its head coach role. However, Thomas Leary of RotoWire is suggesting McCarthy is on the hot seat and is the third most-likely to be fired by the end of the season after finishing with a score of 72 behind New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn and Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen.
Steelers’ Mike McCarthy Shockingly Labeled Hot Seat Candidate Ahead of 2026 Season
Why Exactly is Mike McCarthy Third on the Hot Seat List?
McCarthy is just ahead of Baltimore Ravens head coach Jesse Minter on the list, a surprising addition based on him just coming to the organization from the Los Angeles Chargers. Leary explains why the 62-year-old head coach is so high on the list.
“Both (McCarthy and Minter) stepped into openings created by the offseason’s headline story: two of the league’s longest-tenured coaches are gone from Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and their successors carry the full weight of that succession burden from day one,” Leary wrote. “John Harbaugh’s move to the Giants, by contrast, registers a comfortable 38 — a reminder that pressure is about circumstance, not résumé.”
Below is the breakdown of how the scores were calculated:
- Jock Security Risk — Scale of 0 to 30
- Win-Now Mandate — Scale of 0 to 20
- Quarterback Situation Volatility — Scale of 0 to 20
- Legacy/Succession Burden — Scale of 0 to 15
- Market/Media Scrutiny — Scale of 0 to 15
What Areas of the Scale Hurt Mike McCarthy?
It would be easier to list the areas of this scale that don’t hurt McCarthy, as the Steelers have dug themselves into a hole that puts a lot of pressure on him. Job security risk is really the only area he would not have any issues due to being a first-year head coach. Pittsburgh won’t move on from a coach after just one season, no matter how bad it could be.
Outside of Rodgers, the quarterback room has more questions than answers. Two of the three quarterbacks have never taken an NFL snap, and the one that has is a career backup that could fill in for a spot start as needed. None of them have shown they are franchise quarterback material yet.
McCarthy also gets dinged pretty badly for the win-now mandate, succession burden and media scrutiny. The organization believes it has the pieces to win a Super Bowl after moving on from Mike Tomlin, and Pittsburgh media will be very vocal if the season doesn’t go as planned.
Mike McCarthy Should be Nowhere Near a Hot Seat
This is going to be said as respectfully as possible, but this model is an embarrassment to the game of football. If you asked every general manager in the league to pick 10 coaches that could be fired by the end of this season, less than five would even have McCarthy on their list, and he would be nowhere near the top three. The model is clear with how it evaluates all 32 coaches, but Leary is very wrong.
Even if this season goes off the rails for the Steelers very quickly, and they finish with a 5-12 record, McCarthy will not be fired. It’s very unlikely he’ll finish with such a poor record, but let’s pretend he does somehow. McCarthy has too much experience as an NFL head coach for Omar Khan and Art Rooney II to move on from him after one season.
Using models to predict things can be useful at times, but this model is way off base for a team like the Steelers. McCarthy didn’t build the quarterback room, and he won’t buy into the pressure of succeeding Tomlin.
It’s unclear exactly how long McCarthy will be the Steelers’ head coach, but he will be in that position for more than one year.
Main Image Courtesy of Charles LeClaire – Imagn Images
