The Jaguars surprised everyone at the end of the 2025 season, winning eight straight games to finish with a 13-4 record and win the AFC South for the first time since 2022. It was only the third time since the turn of the century that the Jaguars had won the division, and it took a perfect second half of the season to do it.
The AFC South Race: How the Jaguars Can Win It
Out in Houston, the Texans are building a Super Bowl-contending team. They finished the regular season 12-5 and won a playoff game off the back of their ferocious defense. They still have questions on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense has a great chance to be even more dominant this upcoming season, and any offensive problems they have may not even matter.
The Texans and Jaguars had two down-to-the-wire games in 2025, with each taking a game. Both teams believe they have the roster to compete with the top teams in the NFL, and the divisional race will be a tightly contested battle all season long, but someone has to finish second.
Determining Factors
One of the biggest factors that could hold the Jaguars back is Trevor Lawrence being a notoriously slow starter throughout his career. In his two best seasons (2022 & 2023), he was inconsistent through the first half of the season, and the team’s record reflected it. Once he figured things out, he was able to finish both seasons on a heater and make the playoffs.
Winning the division in this manner is tough to replicate, especially given the Jaguars’ schedule to open the season. They will face the Patriots, Broncos, Eagles, Texans, and Bengals before their bye week in Week seven. Falling behind multiple games in the division will be tough to climb out of, even if the schedule lightens up to end the season.
Lawrence will be in his second season under head coach Liam Coen and should be even more comfortable with another full offseason to build chemistry with the wide receivers and master the system. This should help significantly in starting off the season much better, and not falling behind in the divisional race.
While the Jaguars did not make any blockbuster moves in the offseason, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Ruke Orhorhoro, and Travis Hunter are all players that can improve the team in areas that were at times difficult to overcome in 2025. Having a balanced run game will open things up even more for the offense, and having an improved pass rush and defensive backfield will only help out the defense, especially since a turnover regression is likely.
There is a world where the Jaguars win 13 games again and finish in second, or finish with 11 wins and win the division. The Texans defense will be a top unit again in 2026. The X-factor of the divisional race is the Texan’s offense and more specifically: CJ Stroud. Stroud has had an inconsistent last two seasons, with rock bottom coming in the divisional round against the Patriots.
A game like this could wreck a young quarterback’s confidence permanently, and the Texans offense is not able to pull their weight. However, significant moves were made in the offseason to improve the offensive line and running game, taking some pressure off of Stroud’s plate.
If the Texans offense can become a more balanced attack and pose a legitimate threat to opposing defenses, the Texans will be a dominant force, and a tough one to beat in the AFC South. The Jaguars will have their hands full trying to repeat as AFC South champions, but they have a very good roster and an excellent quarterback that is capable of doing it again.
