It is time for some bold predictions as we near the start of week one of the NFL fantasy season. Most of us have completed our drafts or are finishing up in the next couple of days. Across various outlets, such as Last Word on Sports, you can find fantasy outlooks on any player under consideration to be drafted. From sleepers to busts, the data is abundant. It is time for some bold predictions before the start of NFL Week 1, and we have three with a strong chance based on the data and metrics.
Three Bold Predictions For 2025 Fantasy Football Season
Saquon Barkley Will Finish Outside of the Top-12 at Running Back
These are bold statements, right? Saquon Barkley, being drafted as a top-3 fantasy running back, will finish outside the top-12 in 2025. There are red flags indicating that he is an elevated risk in 2025. Barkley handled a workload of over 400 touches last season. Since 2003, there have been nine running backs who have reached that threshold, and all of them posted a significant performance dip the following season. Their average finish? RB33.
Your most recent example is Christian McCaffrey. He finished 2023 as the overall RB1 and had a combined 417 touches throughout the regular and postseason. McCaffrey ended up dealing with injuries before the 2024 season ever started. That led to an overall RB69 finish and devastating most fantasy owners who drafted him at the 1.1. This bold take will not be popular, but the data is telling!
Jaylen Warren Will Finish as a Top-15 Fantasy Running Back
Jalen Warren, who is being drafted as RB28, will finish as a top-15 fantasy running back. Investing in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ running backs is a solid fantasy investment. Since 2019, Mike Tomlin’s teams have produced a fantasy-relevant running back. The RB1 in the Steelers offense has finished in the top-24 in running back fantasy points scored in five of the last six seasons.
When healthy, Warren has shown to be productive and explosive. Last season, despite dealing with injury from weeks 11-17, Warren produced double-digit fantasy points five times while averaging 11.24 points per game. In perspective, that per-game output would have finished as a top-24 fantasy running back.
Warren is an excellent pass-catching back and is trusted in pass protection. He may cede some goal-line carries to rookie Kaleb Johnson, but Warren is capable of handling a sizeable workload. In 2023, he had 223 touches and played in at least 15 games in his three-year career. The Steelers just showed a commitment to Warren, signing him to a three-year extension. He is the RB1 in that offense, will outperform his RB28 draft ranking, and be a high-end QB2.
Caleb Williams Will Finish as a Top-10 Quarterback
Caleb Williams, currently going off draft boards as QB14, will finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. In July, we wrote a piece stating we are high on Williams’ outlook and see him taking his fantasy production up a notch in 2025. Williams will benefit from the hiring of Detroit Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as his new head coach. What limited him was his lack of consistency, as his 15.0 per game fantasy mark ranked just 20th among regular starting quarterbacks. On top of that, he lacked explosiveness in the passing game, ranking near the league bottom on throws of 20 yards or more. Williams was more of an underneath passer, ranking in the top 10 among fantasy quarterbacks in throws from 0-1o yards.
This is where Johnson comes into play. We saw Jared Goff thrive under the Johnsons’ offensive tutelage. Goff‘s 4,629 yards passing were second in the NFL, and his 8.6 yards per attempt were a career-best. Chicago possesses the offensive pieces. DJ Moore finished 2024 as a top 16 fantasy wide receiver, and D’Andre Swift was a top 19 running back. Rookie Rome Odunze showed flashes and finished third on the Bears in targets. The Bears via the draft, wide receiver Luther Burden, and tight end Colston Loveland. Both are expected to contribute this season. Expect Williams to throw up QB1 numbers in 2025!
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