Derek Carr left last Monday’s game with an injury. He is expected to miss a couple of weeks with an oblique tear. Jake Haener replaced him in Monday’s game, but the fifth-round rookie, Spencer Rattler will be the starter in Carr’s absence. This will hurt the Saints offense as a whole, but how does it affect each specific Saints player in fantasy football?
The #Saints are starting rookie QB Spencer Rattler, per me and @MikeGarafolo, as Derek Carr is out a few weeks with a tear in his oblique.
A hurdle for the #Saints, but also a look at a promising young QB. pic.twitter.com/FK7E3cohlg
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 9, 2024
Derek Carr Fantasy Injury Outlook for the New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave
Olave has had an inconsistent five weeks to start the season. He has two games with less than four fantasy points but three with double-digit performances. Olave has only earned more than six targets in one game this year. Fellow receiver Rashid Shaheed has been getting more targets due to his speed and deep ball ability. However, with rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler set to make his first career start, the Saints offense will likely become more conservative, relying on easy throws for Rattler. Olave is the most reliable receiver for the Saints, and Rattler may heavily target him with safer, shorter passes. There will be a lot of low air yards passes, but Olave’s targets should increase with Rattler. Olave will be fine in PPR leagues, but in half-point PPR and standard leagues, his fantasy production will falter.
Rashid Shaheed
Shaheed’s fantasy value takes a significant hit with Carr sidelined. He has thrived on deep passes from Carr, averaging 17.8 yards per catch and scoring three long touchdowns of 59, 70, and 43 yards. Carr’s willingness to throw deep has been key to Shaheed’s big-play potential. However, with Rattler taking over, the Saints will likely adopt a more conservative approach, limiting deep shots and reducing Shaheed’s opportunities. Until Derek Carr returns from his injury, Shaheed’s production is likely to decline, making him a riskier fantasy option in the coming weeks.
Alvin Kamara
Kamara is the overall RB1 on the year in total points. He is doing it both on the ground and in the air. In the last four games, he has at least 40 receiving yards. Without Carr, the Saints are expected to lean more on the run game, increasing Kamara’s workload on the ground. Additionally, Rattler will make conservative throws, which means check-down passes for Kamara. Kamara will be just fine without Carr.
Taysom Hill
Hill is an interesting case with the Carr injury. First, Hill needs to recover from his own ribs injury, as he is questionable for this week’s game. If he does play, the Saints love to line him up as quarterback. With Hill’s unique versatility, he could see an expanded role in the offense. In leagues where Hill is tight end eligible, he becomes a valuable fantasy option for the next few weeks, providing both rushing and some passing upside.
Saints Upcoming Schedule
The Saints play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, who just gave up over 500 passing yards to Kirk Cousins. While rookie quarterback Rattler isn’t likely to replicate those numbers, he’s in a favorable spot to succeed. However, after this matchup, the Saints have a quick turnaround with a Thursday Night Football game against the Broncos, a top-tier defense. With Carr likely still sidelined, this limits the upside of the Saints’ offensive players in Week 7, especially against a stingy Broncos defense. The following week, they play the Chargers, another great defense. Both the Broncos and Chargers are in the top three for the least fantasy points given up to wide receivers on the year. It could be a challenging stretch for both Olave and Shaheed in fantasy as they face two of the tougher secondaries back-to-back.
Conclusion
With a rookie quarterback and a tough schedule, it will be hard for the Saints to have two startable wide receivers in fantasy. Olave gets the nod over Shaheed as he is the better overall player. Olave will be a low-end WR2 to a high-end WR3, while Shaheed is a low-end WR3 to a high-end WR4. Kamara is still a top-five fantasy running back, and Hill is a startable tight end.
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