The Buffalo Bills will begin their pursuit of a fifth straight AFC East division title Sunday when they welcome the Arizona Cardinals to Highmark Stadium. A sixth consecutive playoff appearance would also tie the franchise record set from 1988 through 1993.
A lot has changed since the Bills last took the field, a 27-24 loss to the rival Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of last year’s postseason. Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse and Leonard Floyd headlined the veteran offseason departures.
Buffalo is hoping an infusion of youth combined with the presence of superstar quarterback Josh Allen is enough to keep the franchise in Super Bowl contention. The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are surely sensing an opportunity to take over the top of the division, though.
All told, the Western New York faithful could endure a rocky, up-and-down year from their beloved Bills. The schedule does provide an opportunity to peak late in the regular season, however. That may align perfectly with when the team’s remade roster finally starts clicking on all cylinders.
Bills Projections: Game Score Predictions, 2024 Record Forecast
Week 1: vs. Arizona Cardinals (24-23 win, 1-0)
Matt Milano will be missed immediately. Facing a dual-threat quarterback in Kyler Murray and a top-tier tight end like Trey McBride is a tough ask for a defense replacing its top linebacker and both safeties. As a result, it’s surprising to see the Bills as a six-point favorite. This feels more like a toss-up game until we learn more about the Buffalo defense. Allen may make enough plays with his legs to push the Bills over the top, but it’ll likely come down to the wire.
Week 2: at Miami Dolphins (38-31 loss, 1-1)
Miami’s speed causes problems for everyone, but that’s especially true since Buffalo can’t match it in the secondary. It’s easy to foresee a narrative developing out of this game that the defense is going to hold the team back all season. On the flip side, this will be a great opportunity for the Bills passing game to start finding a rhythm.
Week 3: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (21-17 win, 2-1)
Aside from the divisional matchups, these are the games that carry the most weight for the Bills in 2024: other AFC wild-card contenders. The battle with Jags starts a stretch of three such contests in a row for Buffalo. Going at least 2-1 would be an early boost to the team’s playoff hopes.
Week 4: at Baltimore Ravens (27-17 loss, 2-2)
Allen vs. Lamar Jackson is always going to attract a lot of attention, so it’s no surprise this game was chosen for Sunday Night Football. Playing this game on the road on a short week may be too much to overcome for the Bills. It’s another great litmus test for the defense’s progress, too.
Week 5: at Houston Texans (25-18 win, 3-2)
Although Allen and Diggs have publicly remained cordial since the wide receiver’s trade to Houston, it was clear by the end of their partnership in Buffalo they were no longer on the same page. Diggs’ ability to get open has diminished, but he still wants the ball at a high rate. The face of the Bills franchise would probably love to win this game with his new, lesser-known wideouts in a starring role.
Week 6: at New York Jets (23-20 loss, 3-3)
The extent to which the Jets are a threat to the Bills heavily depends on which version of Aaron Rodgers shows up in 2024 after last year’s Achilles injury. If he returns to MVP form, New York is on the Super Bowl short list. The answer should be more clear by the time this matchup arrives in mid-October.
Week 7: vs. Tennessee Titans (35-9 win, 4-3)
After opening with a bunch of close games, the Bills will finally have a favorable opportunity to secure a blowout with a home game against a Titans squad likely a year away from getting back in the mix. It could also help spark a winning streak for Allen and Co.
Week 8: at Seattle Seahawks (24-20 win, 5-3)
These games are always tricky. A long road trip out west in the middle of home games against AFC opponents. It’s still a game the Bills should win if they want to make the playoffs this season, and it’s also a chance to start putting a .500 record in the rear-view mirror.
Week 9: vs. Miami Dolphins (28-19 win, 6-3)
The Bills would prefer their rematch with the Dolphins come in late December instead of early November. That’s when the weather is more likely to help slow down Miami’s playmakers. Nevertheless, Buffalo can’t get swept in the season series if they want to retain the division crown.
Week 10: at Indianapolis Colts (32-28 win, 7-3)
An under-the-radar pick as a potential “Game of the Season.” Two dynamic quarterbacks, a pair of game-breaking running backs and defenses with some weaknesses to exploit. Where the two teams stand by that point—Has Buffalo regressed? Is Indianapolis now an AFC contender?—could add to the interest level.
Week 11: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (31-30 loss, 7-4)
The Bills have never shown the ability to consistently stop the Chiefs offense when it matters most. The problem has been equal parts scheme and personnel over the years. Now, with more personnel questions than ever, is there any way Buffalo can stop Patrick Mahomes and Co.?
Week 13: vs. San Francisco 49ers (35-28 loss, 7-5)
Facing last year’s Super Bowl combatants in back-to-back games is a cruel bit of scheduling, though the Bills do have their bye week in the middle. If they have a standout defensive performance in either game, the team’s outlook will improve considerably.
Week 14: at Los Angeles Rams (28-17 win, 8-5)
This is a scary part of the schedule for the Bills. Right after two games against the NFL’s elite at home, they go on the road to face a part of NFC playoff hopefuls. Taking care of business in L.A., just like they did to open the 2022 season, could be a pivotal turning point.
Week 15: at Detroit Lions (20-13 loss, 8-6)
Playing a hard-nosed team like the Lions at the end of such a difficult stretch isn’t ideal. A lot can change between now and mid-December, but this feels like a game where Detroit may be able to wear Buffalo down with a possession-based approach. An 8-6 record at this point would also leave the Bills little margin for error heading into the stretch run.
Week 16: vs. New England Patriots (40-16 win, 9-6)
It’s rare a team doesn’t face one of its divisional foes for the first time until Week 16. In this case, it should work out nicely for the Bills. Either the Patriots are winding down a rebuilding year, which is the expectation, or they’re a surprising playoff contender and Buffalo gets two opportunities to gain an edge on them late in the year.
Week 17: vs. New York Jets (31-21 win, 10-6)
Even if Rodgers is putting together a solid bounce-back campaign, playing a road game in the Buffalo winter with what will probably limited mobility is a tough test. The Bills strong edge-rushing group should have a chance to put together a big game here.
Week 18: at New England Patriots (21-13 win, 11-6)
In this forecast, the Bills end the season on a three-game winning streak. That should send them into the playoffs on a high note. It’s hard to say they can seriously compete for a championship until the defense’s upside is revealed. The offense should remain among the league’s best, though.
2024 Bills Final Outlook
Last year, the Bills finished 11-6 with a plus-140 point differential, which ranked fourth in the NFL. All of their losses came by six points or less. A few breaks and they could have easily tallied 13 or 14 wins in 2023. It’s important to point that out because their projected record for this season is the same 11-6 mark, but the predicted point differential is a more modest plus-73. Buffalo is going to go through some growing pains and there will be ugly moments along the way. Don’t let the strong record obscure the incoming rollercoaster.
That said, a lot of the veterans who departed the Bills roster over the past eight months were no longer in their prime. They won’t be easy to replace, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be replaced. It’s just going to take time, and there’s always risk associated with wide-scale changes. The end result could still be a dangerous squad by the time the playoffs roll around. A season where the pressure of a “Super Bowl or bust” mentality doesn’t follow the team right away starting in Week 1 should also help. Head coach Sean McDermott has found more success when he can tap into a group’s underdog mentality.
The Bills aren’t a championship favorite at the moment. That doesn’t mean they won’t be after earning another AFC East title in early January.
Main Image: Charles LeClaire – USA Today Sports
