It’s the fourth quarter. With 58 seconds left, the Indianapolis Colts are winning 31-24 with a 97.3% win probability. In a stunning turn of events, Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills throws a 28-yard touchdown pass to Jordan Akins, a play that should have been an interception, narrowing the score to 30-31. Then, in a bold move, Head Coach Lovie Smith, aware that he will be fired after the game, decides to go for a two-point conversion. The Texans convert, securing a 32-31 victory. This unexpected win cost the Texans the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, which then went to the Chicago Bears. Despite being a seemingly inconsequential game, these two plays significantly altered the futures of the Colts, Texans, and Bears. But how did this benefit all three franchises?
How Two Plays Changed the Trajectory of Three NFL Franchises
Overview for Each Team
With the Texans victory over the Colts, the final draft order was determined: No. 1 Bears, No. 2 Texans, No. 4 Colts. The team with the first overall pick was expected to draft quarterback Bryce Young from the University of Alabama. However, the Bears traded the top pick to the Carolina Panthers, who then selected Young. Consequently, the Texans drafted QB C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick, and the Colts chose QB Anthony Richardson with the fourth pick.
While Young had a decent season with the Panthers, his performance was hindered by a mediocre supporting cast. As a result, the Panthers finished with the worst record in the league. Having traded up to draft Young, they had given their 2024 first-round pick to the Bears. This trade positioned the Bears with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, allowing them to select QB Caleb Williams.
Houston Texans
The Texans and rookie QB C.J. Stroud went on to have one of the fastest rebuilds in NFL history. Stroud went on to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, throwing for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns and is already regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. In an article for The Athletic, Ted Nguyen explains why Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons ever.
“Stroud wins in ways that are sustainable. He understands what the defenses are doing, he has a plan to beat what they throw at him, he manipulates defenders with his eyes and beats them with ball placement.”
It’s rare for rookie quarterbacks to achieve significant success in their first year. However, last season, Stroud defied the odds with his outstanding performance. Next season, there’s potential for a similar story with another promising rookie quarterback.
Chicago Bears
The Bears might have benefited the most from the Colts-Texans game. Not only did they get the first overall pick in 2023, but they also made a risky move that rewarded them with another No. 1 overall pick in 2024. The Bears decided to stick with Justin Fields in 2023, and things didn’t pan out. Fields was beat up, and he didn’t have the best supporting cast around him. Having the No. 1 overall pick for the second straight year, the Bears decided to stick at one. With a generational prospect in Caleb Williams there for the taking, the Bears made a move to trade Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a conditional sixth-round pick. The outcome of drafting Caleb Williams is still to be determined. However, with a much-improved supporting cast around him, Williams is poised to achieve similar success compared to Stroud’s rookie season.
Indianapolis Colts
Unfortunately for the Colts, Anthony Richardson’s rookie season was cut short due to a season-ending shoulder injury. Although Richardson only played four games, there’s much to be hopeful for. He displayed flashes of brilliance with his playmaking ability, both with his legs and his powerful arm. Similar to Williams, Richardson is surrounded by offensive talent and is positioned for future success.
The league is in good hands at the quarterback position. Stroud, Williams, and Richardson are all elite playmakers set to become franchise quarterbacks for their respective teams. In a world of what-ifs, the NFL landscape could have been vastly different without two pivotal plays in a Week 18 matchup between the Colts and Texans. Thanks to the two plays, three NFL franchises have bright futures.
Main Photo: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
