Match-ups are the key to victory in every football game, and this will be no different for the 49ers if they are to advance to the Super Bowl with a win on Sunday. The 49ers and Lions are extremely tough and physical. They want to run the ball your throat and dominate the line of scrimmage. These defenses want to knock the offensive player’s head off with every hit. Lions General Manager Brad Holmes and his 49ers counterpart John Lynch have taken great care in building their respective rosters. If the 49ers want to win, they will have to win a few key match-ups.
Match-ups the 49ers Must Win
1. Brock Purdy vs Lions Pass Defense
The Lions boast one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They have allowed 5 straight passers to eclipse 340 yards on them, including Nick Mullens twice. Their outside cornerback duo is one of the worst in the entire league. Cameron Sutton this season was ranked #109 out of 133 eligible cornerbacks according to PFF. And his partner Kindle Vildor? He was somehow much worse. He ranked #114 out of 133 eligible cornerbacks, according to PFF.
This bodes well for 49ers Quarterback Brock Purdy, who finished as a top-5 passer in every major passing statistic in 2023. Receiver Brandon Aiyuk averaged a whopping 17.9 yards a catch en route to his 1,342-yard season and was also PFF’s top-graded NFC Wide Receiver in 2023. Aiyuk is Purdy’s best downfield threat and they both rely on each other heavily. Chances are if Purdy is having a bad day, the ball will find itself in the hands of Christian McCaffrey or Deebo Samuel instead because of their YAC ability. Aiyuk and Purdy face a secondary that has allowed 5 straight 140+ yard receivers and is a bottom 5 pass defense since Week 10. (Akash Anavarathan on X)
Purdy has elevated an offense that opposing coordinators were already struggling to stop when Jimmy Garoppolo was the quarterback. The 49ers offense now has the ability to pass the ball down the field, something it didn’t have with Jimmy G. Purdy finished as the league’s best deep passer in 2023 and this is bad news for Detroit’s underwhelming cornerback duo. If the 49ers want to win this game, they will need MVP candidate Brock Purdy and not the Mr. Irrelevant version the world saw last week. Even a last-minute drive won’t save the 49ers if Purdy isn’t better on Sunday. The biggest game of the year will come down to the most important position.
Ready to Brock and Roll🎸 pic.twitter.com/2CZd6kGztL
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) January 25, 2024
2. Brock Purdy vs Lions Pass Rush
Facing Detroit’s pass rush is going to be a big job for Purdy on Sunday. The Lions apply pressure on the quarterback on 43% of dropbacks (third highest) and blitz on 35.2% of dropbacks. (Akash Anavarathan on X). This is normally bad news for a young quarterback, but this is actually great news for Purdy, who led the league in passer rating (122.1), yards per attempt (10), touchdowns (16), and big-time throw rate (6.8%) against the blitz. (David Lombardi on X).He also ranks as the 3rd best passer against pressure per EPA. Due to their high blitzing tendencies, the Lions tend to play a lot of man coverage on the back end of their defense. The second-year signal-caller led the league in passer rating, passer rating under pressure, and yards-per-attempt against man coverage in 2023. (Akash Anavarathan on X).
Another match-up in the pass rush department that benefits Detroit heavily is the 49ers’ right tackle, Colton McKivitz. Including the postseason, McKivitz has given up 11.5 sacks this year. This is hardly good news as Detroit’s superstar pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson lines up primarily from the right side of the line. Hutchinson has a whopping 8 sacks and 17 tackles in his last 5 games, including the postseason. This is a terrible match-up for the 49ers because this is one of the few games in which they will have to rely on Purdy’s arm more than McCaffrey’s legs. This is due to the Lions boasting the league’s third-best rushing defense and bad secondary.
Let’s face it. This is the playoffs. Regular season stats can be looked upon but not taken at face value. Purdy could completely melt under pressure on Sunday. Anything is possible. The stats suggest that the 49ers offense and Purdy especially should boat-race the Lions in a rout. This is unlikely, but at the same time, it’s just as unlikely that the league’s best under-pressure quarterback suddenly spontaneously combusts.
3. 49ers Pass Rush vs Jared Goff/Lions Offensive Line
This is a match-up the 49ers just cannot afford to lose if they want to win the game. Detroit quarterback Jared Goff is the complete opposite of Purdy when it comes to pressure. If made uncomfortable, he will make mistakes. He has the sixth-highest turnover-worthy play rate (5.7%) in the league when under pressure according to PFF. He is the 28th-ranked passer when facing pressure this season, per EPA. His stats under pressure this season? 51.4% Completion Percentage, 6.3 yards per attempt, 6 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. It’s particularly hard getting to him as the Lions boast the league’s fourth-best offensive line, according to pass block win rate.
However, if the 49ers are unable to get to him? Goff’s turnover-worthy play rate drops all the way down to 0.8%, 8th best in the league. His EPA goes up to seventh-best in the league. His statistics jump all the way up to an otherworldly level. 76% Completion Percentage, 8.2 yards per attempt, 27 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. If the 49ers cannot get to Goff, he will simply pick them apart. He’s too good to be allowed to stand back there and deal. The 49ers will lose if they don’t sack Goff at least twice and they must keep up the pressure to make him uncomfortable from the first snap to the last.
Nick Bosa and the high-priced 49ers defensive line have also suddenly gone quiet. They didn’t have a single sack against Jordan Love on Saturday. To their credit, they did have many pressures including one that forced the game-winning interception. But pressure isn’t going to cut it on Sunday. Goff isn’t Jordan Love. He won’t panic and make a terrible throw. The 49ers must sack Goff early and often. That is the only way to rattle the veteran who has made an NFC Championship game.
(All stats via Akash Anavarathan on X).
4. 49ers Rush Defense vs Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery
The 49ers rush defense is coming off their worst showing in 51 games. They allowed their first 100-yard rusher in 3 seasons, which first of all is an absurd record but doesn’t bode well for Sunday. The Lions running game is full steam ahead and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is the engine of the train. David Montgomery is still important, it’s clear that Gibbs is the star of the show. He’s been the key competent of the rush offense for each of the last 2 games. He faces a 49ers rush defense that was tied for 16th best in the league, which is average at best. The 49ers must be on their A-game this Sunday. Their best, best stuff. This means that linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw need to be making plays everywhere.
If the Lions are allowed to control the pace of the game, the 49ers’ chances of winning go significantly down. Because a good rushing attack opens up the passing attack. A tired defensive front won’t have the energy to rush Goff, and that would be fatal. The 49ers probably won’t shut down Gibbs and Montgomery. One or both will probably score in this game. But they need to contain them. Allowing 5 yards a carry or more would be a disaster. Gibbs is bound to take a run 20+ yards at some point in this game, but the 49ers cannot allow him to run free all day. Or else, they will lose and this is a promise.
49ers Path to Victory
Offense: Throw the ball early and often. Trust Brock Purdy and make sure there are a lot of plays for Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel.
Defense: Contain Gibbs and Montgomery. Put tons of pressure on Goff and they must sack him.
Lions Path to Victory
Offense: Run the ball with Gibbs especially. Protect Goff as much as possible. Throw the ball to whoever Ambry Thomas is guarding.
Defense: Shut down Christian McCaffrey. Force Purdy to beat you using his arm. Play zone coverage and don’t blitz.
Prediction
Christian McCaffrey will be a non-factor on the ground for most of the game. He will, of course, rip a long run that may go the distance but will be held in check by Detroit’s rush defense. However, he will be a big factor in the passing game as an outlet for Purdy, since Detroit blitzes so much. Purdy will look like the MVP candidate we’ve seen all season long. The 49ers’ pass rush will get to Goff early on often, who will make mistakes.
49ers – 41. Lions – 24
Main Photo Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
