It’s pretty tricky to find any DraftKings DFS bargains on the Chargers team. But that won’t stop me from trying. Giff Smith couldn’t have asked for a tougher start to his interim head coach job. The Bills have won 3 of their last 4 games and their defense is allowing 17.4 per game in those games. Sometimes teams get a new coach bounce, but those teams usually have their starting quarterback playing. The Chargers will either have Easton Stick making his second start or Will Grier. Grier has been on the Bengals practice squad, the Patriots active roster, and now the Chargers roster in the last 5 months! It seems unlikely he’ll play in this game, but it seems unlikely Easton Stick is an NFL quarterback. Welcome to the special brand of chaos the Chargers specialize in.
The Bills won easily against the Cowboys last week despite Josh Allen only throwing 7 complete passes. James Cook racked up 63% of their 351 yards on his own. That’s probably not a sustainable way to run an offense, but with the Bills’ defense, they don’t need a whole lot of offense to win. If the Chargers are looking for a ray of hope it’s that the Bills are 2-4 on the road this season. The Chargers have only won twice at home though.
DraftKings DFS Bargains for the Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers
The Real Superstar Tight End DraftKings DFS Pick – Dawson Knox
Knox was supposed to be eclipsed by the rookie Dalton Kincaid after the Bills traded up to draft him. Skip Bayless said “There’s some Kelce” about Kincaid. Well, if there is then it’s the smallest fraction of Kelce possible. Kincaid is averaging 8.1 yards per touch this season. Kelce is having a bad season by his standards but he’s still averaging 10.9 yards per touch.
But back to Knox, he’s averaging 7.7 per touch. He’s only caught 18 passes this season but he had wrist surgery in October. He’s only been back for 2 games, he played 62% of the snaps last week. He didn’t catch a pass though (they only had 7 completions, remember). But in his first game back, against the Chiefs, he went 3 for 3 with 36 receiving yards.
The Chargers are allowing 13.7 DraftKings DFS points per game to tight ends. And the 6 touchdowns they have conceded to the tight end position is the fourth-highest number in the league. If the Chargers run defense slows James Cook down more than the Cowboys could (and that’s not a given) Knox could find himself in the endzone this week.
The Star Buried On The Depth Chart DraftKings DFS Pick – Khalil Shakir
Shakir is averaging 16.2 yards per touch in 2023, that’s very good. Last year he averaged 16.1 yards per touch. He is very, very good. So why has he only caught 26 passes this season? Who knows. He’s hauling in 81.3% of his targets too. It’s a mystery why Allen doesn’t look his way more often. Maybe the desire to play “hero ball” stops him from checking out his slot receiver.
The Chargers gave up 5 passing touchdowns last week (they just really gave up). And there’s no reason why Josh Allen shouldn’t take up where Aidan O’Connell left off last week. Only 2 teams, the Eagles and Commanders have conceded more pass touchdowns than the Chargers this season. The odd thing about that is Khalil Mack is one of the best defensive players in the league this season. And Asante Samuel Jr. And Derwin James really should have more than 3 interceptions between them.
The Gadget Guy DraftKings DFS Pick – Deonte Harty
Like Shakir Harty is really good. He’s catching 70% of his targets in 2023, Shakir is the only Bills wider receiver with a better catch rate. Also like Shakir, he’s not used nearly as much as he should be. Harty is averaging 9.9 yards per catch but he has only seen 20 targets this season. If the Bills shred the Chargers pass defense like the Raiders did Harty could have a wild time. Tre Tucker is a very similar player to Harty and he scored more than 20 DraftKings DFS points last week.
Harty stands to be the eighth most expensive receiver on this DraftKings DFS slate. And if the Bills find as many holes in the LA defense as the Raiders did he’ll be a bargain.
The Underused Touchdown Threat DraftKings DFS Pick – Alex Erickson
Erickson somehow looked good in a Chargers team that looked anything but last time out. He’s only played 5 games for the Chargers but he hasn’t dropped a pass all season. After his touchdown reception last week, he’ll be more expensive than he was in Week 15. But he should be the seventh most expensive receiver on the DraftKings DFS slate.
The Exciting Longshot Pick – Derius Davis
According to the good people at NextGen Stats Davis had the second-longest play of Week 15 when he returned a punt. It was unofficially a 38-yard punt return that went for a touchdown. But in reality, he ran 101.3 yards only to have the play called back for a holding penalty on Stone Smartt (not so smart after all). Davis caught 1 pass for -2 yards last week. So he’s likely to be the cheapest player on this DraftKings DFS slate this week. But the Chargers need to get the ball out of Easton Stick’s hands quicker and Davis could be the perfect man to help with that.
Main Photo: Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle-USA TODAY NETWORK
