As the season winds down, bad teams are, surprisingly, still in the postseason mix. And the Denver Broncos were one of them. But not after Week 16. For a team that started 1-5, to be in the playoff hunt seemed ridiculous. But, after a long winning streak and a couple of stumbles, Denver found itself right in the mix. Then came Week 16 against one of the worst teams in the league. It sure looked like a game to launch a team into the playoffs. But the Denver Broncos playoff chances are gone.
All Gone, Like The Denver Broncos Playoff Chances
Percentage Problems
According to the New York Times, the Denver Broncos playoff chances were 23% heading into Week 16. That was based on a matchup simulator, which works by assigning relative importance to each game. And that low percentage chance makes complete sense. After all, Denver started 1-5. They became 7-7. But the AFC is a tough conference. A .500 record isn’t going to make the cut, not with so many good teams fighting for so few spots. 23% feels about right – hope was mostly dead.
But, as Miracle Max would say, mostly dead is slightly alive. Had the Broncos gone on another winning streak, their playoff chances would have grown to 80%. That’s assuming three wins, and of course losses from other AFC teams. And that seemed possible, if not likely, heading into Week 16. But the Broncos playoffs chances are now gone, as they drop the first of three must-win games. The odds may have been in their favor, but the way they play matters so much more.
Getting Off Script
The Broncos’ last three games seemed so winnable. A home game vs the New England Patriots, who have a losing record and a backup quarterback. A home game vs the Los Angeles Chargers, who have a losing record and a backup quarterback. And a road game vs the Las Vegas Raiders, who have a losing record and a backup quarterback. Notice a trend? And those last two teams have new coaches, as the ones that started the season were fired mid-year. That’s how the Denver Broncos playoff chances could become so high, because their upcoming games were so easy.
But if the script was written for the Broncos to mount an epic comeback, they didn’t read it correctly. Losing to the Patriots in the first of three must-win games curtails the comeback before it even starts. According to the data, the Broncos now have only a 5% chance of making the playoffs. Which, of course, is essentially none. The postseason is now a thing of the future that has become a thing of the past. And all that’s left for Denver fans to do now is sit back and live with it.
The Denver Broncos Playoff Chances Are Gone
The journey from a 23% chance to an 80% chance to a 5% chance is swift. The percentages moved so quickly because Denver couldn’t find ways to beat bad teams. Now, being a bad team themselves, it seems so obvious. Denver dug itself a large hole. And an imperfect record since righting the ship led them to a less-than-ideal postseason situation. They won’t be playing in January or February now. And fans wonder what year the drought will be over.
Main Photo: [Ron Chenoy] – USA Today Sports
