The Vikings’ playoff path has been through some drastic ups and downs throughout the 2023 season. Things looked bleak after a 1-4 start, with many outlets having them in the single-digit percentages to make playoffs. Then they started rattling off wins while the entire NFC middle tier caved in on itself, sparking renewed optimism. Of course, that had to be followed by a season-ending Achilles tear to quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Since that point, the playoff odds for the Vikings have stayed above 50% due in large part to great coaching. Kevin O’Connell has had his team playing hard down the stretch, all while cycling through three different backup quarterbacks. The fact that the Vikings are still very much alive while making national news every week when they announce their starter, is a testament to KOC and his staff.
With three games remaining, it would appear that winning two of three would almost certainly have Minnesota in the playoffs. The Vikings are currently the six-seed and tied with three teams at 7-7. The Vikings have the stronger conference record and due to the general ineptitude of the NFC middle tier, it’s hard to imagine that multiple of those 7-7 teams will win out. With that magic number of two wins in mind, let’s take a look at the Vikings’ remaining schedule and forecast their probability of winning each game.
Vikings Remaining Schedule Down the Stretch is Filled with Familiar Adversaries
Lions @ Vikings
This is by far the most important remaining game on the schedule for the Vikings. If the Vikings were able to win this one, it would be a huge statement with two games to go. It’s also their first matchup of the season against the division-leading Lions, a team Minnesota has historically beaten up. This year’s Lions are a little different than the Lions of old though. Detroit is also coming in hot after trouncing the streaking Broncos this past weekend. Couple that with the Vikings coming in off a heartbreaking loss and momentum definitively favors Detroit.
If the Lions have a weakness, it’s been their defense this season. They’ve had a really tough time generating consistent pressure and have been gashed by the run at times. The good news for Detroit is that the Vikings don’t run the ball all that well. That may be on its way to changing with Ty Chandler installed as the feature back, but a one-week sample size is too quick to draw that conclusion. Detroit also features a strong offensive line that should mitigate the Vikings’ propensity for blitzing. Being at home is going to give Minnesota a chance, but the Lions are rightfully favored here.
Vikings Win Probability: 20%
Packers @ Vikings
The Packers were having a moment as media darlings after stringing together good wins against Detroit and Kansas City. Jordan Love’s ascent as a franchise quarterback was the talk of the town. Their offense then promptly turned back into a pumpkin, showing the same inconsistency they have for most of the season on the way to ugly losses the past two weeks. When looking at the Vikings playoff path, this is an absolute must-win. It’s going to be at home, on Sunday Night Football against a team that’s reeling.
Green Bay’s chances in this one will come down to whether Jordan Love can fare any better against Minnesota’s aggressive defense than he did the first time. In their matchup at Lambeau, Brian Flores’ blitz packages gave Love fits for most of the game. It’s only going to get worse when those packages are coupled with the crowd noise in Minnesota. As bad as Love has looked recently, this matchup has to favor the Vikings.
Vikings Win Probability: 70%
Vikings @ Lions
The third and final matchup on the Vikings’ remaining schedule has them headed to Detroit to end the season. If things looked bleak for the Vikings in their home matchup, this one has to be even worse right? That may not entirely be true. It’s very likely that the Lions will have already wrapped up the division and their playoff seed by Week 18. That makes it very possible that the Lions will be playing backups for at least a portion of this game. If that’s the case the Vikings should have a much better chance in this one than they would otherwise.
Vikings Win Probability: 50%
Verdict: Two Wins May be Tough to Come by but the Vikings Playoff Path is Very Much Alive
The toughest projected matchup on the Vikings’ remaining schedule is certainly their upcoming game against Detroit. Their playoff chances would swing up dramatically if they were able to pull off the upset at home. However, a loss wouldn’t completely eliminate them. The Vikings are certainly capable of beating a flawed team at home and winning a game played potentially against backups. The Vikings have their work cut out for them, but they’ve got a real chance to be one of the two final NFC Wild Cards.
Main Photo: [Katie Stratman] – USA Today Sports
