Each year, heading into draft season, we start to settle upon players we love and players we hate, relative to ADP. This article will dive into the latter portion, my fantasy football quarterback fades. We never like to see players perform poorly, but we also need to identify players that look to be in disadvantageous situations. Here are three quarterbacks to fade in fantasy football in 2023.
READ MORE: Quarterback Sleepers – Running Back Targets – Wide Receiver Targets – Tight End Targets
Fantasy Football Quarterback Fades for 2023
Before we get into these fantasy football fades, I want to preface this by saying that all of these are relative to ADP. Of course, if any of them slip a few rounds, I’ll take a chance on them but that rarely happens. These are all based on Fantasypros PPR ADP data as of this writing.
1. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence enjoyed a nice breakout season last year. He finished with 4,113 passing yards and 25 touchdowns to go along with 291 rushing yards and five more scores on the ground. That propelled him to 17.9 fantasy points per game and a QB12 finish. That’s not too shabby after suffering through the Urban Meyer Experience the year before on his way to a QB29 finish. Lawrence is also considered a “generational prospect” by many so the improvements last year were a big step towards fulfilling that potential. The Jaguars acquired Calvin Ridley which should give him another weapon so it’s easy to see why many fantasy managers are extremely excited about Lawrence heading into 2023.
Trevor Lawrence 2022 ranks
-Pass Att: 7th
-RZ Att: 8th
-Team Pass Plays: 9th
-Protection Rate: 1st
-Pass Yds: 9th
-Air Yds: 10th
-Pass TDs: 8th
-Rush Att: 10th
-Rush Yds: 10th
-Rush TDs: 5th-Fantasy PPG: 12th
2023 ADP
UD: QB8 (65 OVR)
FP: QB8 (56 OVR)Take Kyle Pitts instead
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) August 6, 2023
Color me very skeptical that Lawrence makes another big leap in 2023. At least one big enough to justify his current ADP. Lawrence put up very good numbers last year and he was still only QB12 in fantasy points per game. He was already top 10 in pass attempts, red zone attempts, team pass plays per game, air yards, passing yards, passing touchdowns, carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. It’s going to be hard to be significantly better and that’s what he needs to do to make the leap to compete with the elites at the position.
Ultimately, he doesn’t run enough to compete with the elite rushing quarterbacks and he isn’t at the level of Patrick Mahomes or even Joe Burrow. For some reason, fantasy managers are paying an expectant price on Lawrence as he is currently going as the 8th quarterback off the board and his current ADP is 56th overall. That’s ahead of guys like Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Diontae Johnson, and Tyler Lockett, all of whom I’d rather draft. Pass on Lawrence at that price and take one of those guys instead and take one of Anthony Richardson, Geno Smith, or Daniel Jones three or four rounds later. This makes Lawrence an easy quarterback to fade in fantasy football for 2023.
2. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Heading into 2022, Derek Carr was set up for a career year. He was coming off a year in which he threw for a career-high 4,804 yards on 626 pass attempts. The only thing that was missing was the touchdowns as Carr only had 24 despite those career-highs in yards and attempts. Luckily, touchdown machine Davante Adams was coming to town. Carr and Adams were longtime friends that played together in college and it was expected that Adams would be the final piece to put Carr over the top. Not only that but the AFC West was primed and ready for shootout after shootout with Russell Wilson now in Denver. All the stars looked like they were aligning for a massive season until they didn’t.
Instead of taking a step forward in 2023, it was more of the same for Carr. He finished with 15.5 fantasy points per game as the QB19. Carr had 24 touchdowns last year. Basically, his numbers were nearly identical to the year before and his typical numbers for his career. The division itself wasn’t as high-powered as expected and the Las Vegas Raiders even benched Carr for the final two games, signaling the end of his tenure with the team. He’s now in New Orleans and there’s no reason to expect a breakout now.
Carr is 32 years old and entering his 10th NFL season. He is what he is at this point and that’s a solid NFL quarterback and a matchup streamer in fantasy football. He doesn’t run so there’s not much upside and no real reason to draft him in 12-team, single quarterback leagues. Currently going as the QB21 off the board (162nd overall), I’d much rather take a player with upside to stash on the bench like Nico Collins, Rashee Rice, or any of the handcuff running backs (Tank Bigsby, Jaylen Warren, etc), all of whom could end up becoming a weekly starter instead of Carr. This makes him one of the best quarterback fades in fantasy football in 2023.
3. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford’s first year with the Los Angeles Rams went about as good as he could have hoped. He passed for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns on his way to averaging 20.4 fantasy points per game. That was good for a QB11 finish in 2021. Stafford topped it all off with a Super Bowl victory. 2022 was the exact opposite and went about as bad as it could. Stafford only ended up playing in nine games due to injury but even in those games he only averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game. That was good for a QB28 finish. Stafford is apparently healthy heading into 2023 but he’s also 35 years old and coming off another injury and the list is piling up. He would also need a lot to break right to even get back to anything close to top-15 numbers.
Matthew Stafford isn't expensive in drafts right now but honestly is there any reason to even draft him at all in 1QB leagues?
According to @FantasyPros ADP right now he's 160 overall (QB20)
If I want to stash a QB, just grab Kyler later otherwise stash a high-upside WR/RB
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) August 15, 2023
The main problem with Stafford, as it was with Carr, is that he’s an older quarterback that doesn’t run at a time when more and more quarterbacks are using their legs. Even in Stafford’s massive 2021 season in which he topped 4,800 yards and 40 touchdowns, he still finished barely inside the top-12. It’s an extremely slim chance he can get anywhere near those passing numbers this year. With that being said, like with Carr, there’s really no upside here in single-quarterback leagues and no real reason to draft Stafford. He is currently going off the board 161st overall as the QB20. Just draft your favorite wide receiver or running back with upside in that area as they’re far more likely to become a mainstay in your weekly lineup and be a true league-winner, which is what you should be looking for in the later rounds. This makes Stafford one of the easiest quarterbacks to fade in fantasy football in 2023.
