J.K. Dobbins’ fantasy football outlook for 2023 is more positive than it was in 2022. Why? This year, Dobbins enters the season fully healthy, in a contract year, and as part of a new offense. He is currently the Baltimore Ravens’ feature back. These are all reasons for optimism for Dobbins’ fantasy output. Of course, however, there are risks associated with him too though.
2023 Fantasy Football Profile: J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins 2022 Recap
Many touted Dobbins as a breakout candidate in 2022. After suffering a season-ending injury in 2021 following a flashy rookie year, Dobbins looked ready to take the next step up. However, it appeared that his injury lingered, resulting in a somewhat underwhelming year.
In 2022, Dobbins managed 520 rushing yards along with two touchdowns. He also caught for 42 yards (on eight targets) and one receiving touchdown. His unproductive year can be attributed to his health issues, which limited him to just eight games.
On the surface, it is easy to say that 2022 was a year to forget for Dobbins. However, his efficiency stats suggest that there is a lot left in the tank. PFF assigned Dobbins a 76.2 grade for 2022. His 5.9 career yards per carry (over 226 carries) is also highly impressive.
J.K. Dobbins 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
With Dobbins’ excellent efficiency stats, the hope is that the 24-year-old running back can be unlocked by Todd Monken. Monken’s new offensive scheme is expected to deploy a primarily smashmouth style but also offer a more potent air attack than Greg Roman’s previous system.
The change in scheme is one of the main reasons for optimism. However, there are others too.
The Good
There is a lot to like about Dobbins’ 2023 fantasy football prospects. The offensive scheme is probably top of the list. With Baltimore changing things up, the expectation is that the unleashing of Lamar Jackson’s arm will result in more running space for Baltimore’s running backs.
Monken’s scheme also features a heavy receiving game out of the backfield. Since Dobbins entered the NFL in 2020, this is not something that he has been asked to do. The prospect of more receiving opportunities potentially gives Dobbins even more upside than ever before.
Another reason for hope? The lack of health concerns. Many physios and pundits alike have noted Dobbins’ lack of stiffness this year. It appears that, two years removed from the ACL tear, Dobbins is finally back to full strength. This will undoubtedly elevate Dobbins’ game.
Further, Dobbins’ status as Baltimore’s feature back remains unquestioned. The young back leads a position group that has Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and UDFA Keaton Mitchell. Edwards will assume the role of the team’s power back. Hill and Mitchell have impressed at camp, but neither figure to really compete with Dobbins at this moment.
The receiving corps is also worth a look. The additions of Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers will mean that defenses will be stretched vertically and horizontally, offering Dobbins fewer stacked boxes. However, do not overlook the signing of Nelson Agholor. Agholor is one of the NFL’s best run-blocking receivers and can help Dobbins extend perimeter run plays.
The final thing to note is that Dobbins is in a contract year. While this has been a source of tension, fantasy managers should be licking their chops. In a year where Dobbins needs to earn a new contract, he looks primed to break out to prove his worth.
Reasons to Worry
As with every fantasy profile, there are causes for concern. The first is health related. In 2022, Dobbins would have had a mega year had he stayed healthy. There is enough to suggest that Dobbins will remain healthy throughout 2023. However, when a player returns from multiple niggles following an ACL tear, there will undoubtedly be concern about whether they can last more than 10 games. Indeed, Dobbins missed June minicamp due to a soft tissue injury. This could be a foreshadowing.
Another cause for concern is that Dobbins has shown little as a receiver. This was noted as a weakness in his game when drafted and could limit the snaps he plays for Monken. If Monken does not view Dobbins as an effective backfield receiver, he could instead give third down opportunities to Hill and Mitchell.
A related worry to this is Dobbins’ limited upside. As part of a committee with Edwards, Dobbins could see his redzone opportunities vastly limited. Jackson’s owning rushing prowess is also a limiting factor. It has been well documented that running backs that play with mobile quarterbacks tend to have fixed ceilings. Alongside on of the league’s best ever rushing quarterbacks, Dobbins’ opportunities could be limited.
The final reason to worry is that Dobbins’ contract dispute could boil over into some form of holdout. While this does not seem likely, it is certainly a situation to keep an eye on. The likelier scenario is that Baltimore offer Dobbins a contract this off-season. If this is so, Dobbins’ production could dip in 2023 as some players have seen a decline in play straight after receiving a contract.
J.K. Dobbins Average Draft Position in Fantasy Football Drafts
As it stands, Dobbins is rated as the RB20 according to FantasyPros. This puts him in the 50-60 range of all players. If he remains at this spot, he is good value as a team’s RB2 or FLEX option.
Given the factors leading into the 2023 season, expect Dobbins to eclipse 1,000 scrimmage yards and score around six touchdowns. This factors in the expectation that Dobbins will miss time during the season.
Dobbins should be drafted as a player who is not relied upon. He needs to be in and out of starting lineups, until it is clear what his role in the Baltimore offense is. If Monken rates Dobbins as an effective do-it-all back, his upside is fantastic.
However, drafting Dobbins based on his upside leaves owners susceptible to vast disappointment. Dobbins is a volatile fantasy asset. He could feasibly miss time through injury and see his role limited in Monken’s offense. These are unavoidable questions that taint Dobbins’ otherwise-glowing 2023 fantasy football outlook.
I’m skeptical BUT he’s got lots of potential – JK Dobbins ⬇️
▪️ Weeks 14-17 last year, he was a top 20 fantasy option in PPR leagues
▪️ 10.9% of Dobbins' carries went for at least 15 yards
▪️ 43% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate, second-best in the league pic.twitter.com/Y9WLtcSuaF— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) June 30, 2023
Main Photo: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
