AFC East Preview – New England Patriots

The last few years have felt like purgatory for a franchise that became synonymous with winning for most of the past two decades. There have been a number of head scratching decisions over that time period. The most confuddling of those decisions came last year when Bill Belichick decided to go without an Offensive Coordinator. This Patriots season preview will assess whether the return of an OC is enough to fix New England’s recent woes.

Draft Analysis: C-

There is a lot of upside with first round corner Christian Gonzalez due to his size and speed combination. He isn’t, however, a finished product and displays some stiffness and lack of awareness on tape. Corners that are drafted in the top 20 and aren’t polished prospects frequently end up busts. New England will hope to avoid that fate with Gonzalez.

Second rounder Keion White is one of the most underrated prospects in the draft and should be a stud as a 3-4 defensive end. He could also devastate as a 4-3 3-technique, making him a perfect fit in New England’s versatile scheme. Third rounder Marte Mapu is the definition of a “Bill Guy”; he’s a speedy tweener who projects better as a safety and special teamer than at linebacker. If he’s going to work anywhere, it’ll be in New England. It’s also worth noting that New England took nine players on day three. It’s impossible to project any of them as a starter, but odds are that a few will surprise.

This draft grade is so poor because they did nothing to address their biggest roster hole… a putrid aerial attack. Bill has long desired to establish New England’s identity as defense first. Leaning into an identity is normally a good thing! However, in scanning the AFC landscape, it’s difficult to see how the Patriots believe they can compete without scoring. But hey, they did draft a Kicker in the fourth round, so they’re apparently planning to at least get into field goal range this year!

Season Outlook: 5-12

Quarterback

It’s hard not to feel bad for Mac Jones at this point. He came into the league as a low ceiling but polished quarterback and may have immediately hit his head on that ceiling his rookie year by leading New England to the playoffs. Since then, it’s almost like the Patriots have been purposely trying to make sure he doesn’t succeed. They tried to scheme up an offense with two failed defensive coaches, which was predictably disastrous. They haven’t even made a serious attempt to bring in promising help on the perimeter. Mac Jones isn’t likely to be a franchise quarterback in the league regardless, but he deserves better than this!

Offense

Running the football is going to have to be the strength of this offense yet again. They have some maulers up front, led by Trent Brown, that can move defenders off the ball. Rhamondre Stevenson should also fill the hole of workhorse quite nicely behind them. The Patriots have also struck on some intriguing depth behind Stevenson, namely Pierre Strong, who showed nicely in limited time as a rookie.

Now for the bad news. This should again be the worst receiver room in football. Bringing in Juju Smith-Schuster to replace Jakobi Meyers feels like a downgrade at the position. At best you can call that move and the marginal upgrade of bringing in Mike Gesicki a wash. Maybe Bill O’Brien can breathe some life into the incumbent weapons, but New England’s lack of interest in addressing the receiver position is baffling. Belichick has historically been bad at drafting receivers, so maybe he’s just giving up at this point? All Patriots fans can do is hope that Deandre Hopkins will be walking through the door in the weeks leading up to training camp. Otherwise, this could look like another offense out of the 1980s.

Defense

If there is a strength to be found on New England’s roster it would have to be the front seven. Matthew Judon leads the way, having turned into a wrecking ball upon arriving in New England. The rest of the front seven is primarily made up of guys that Bill has developed over the years. What they lack in general athleticism, they make up for in discipline and consistently steady play. It will also be fun to see how productive Keion White can be alongside a group of established pass rushers, including the always underrated Josh Uche.

The secondary figured to be a relative strength for the unit, even after the retirement of stalwart safety Devin McCourty. Then the unfortunate Jack Jones news broke, and he’s likely done for at least the season. Now they are going to have to throw Gonzalez into the deep end and their depth is very diminished. It’s a tough break for a team that’s going to be very reliant on its defense to win games.

Post Schedule Release Prediction: 5-12

The Patriots started the simulation a surprising 3-2, including a shocking win against Philadelphia Week 1. The coach and defensive front should be able to keep them in most early season games. However, this team just won’t score enough points to beat teams with great quarterback play that they’ll start to face in the middle of the season. The bottom usually drops out when things start to head downhill for a team that’s defense reliant.

**The post-schedule release prediction is based on a single simulation, with each game on the schedule picked only once. Difficult schedules to begin a season tend to lead to higher deviations between the season outlook and simulation results. Take a hypothetical team projected to have a season outlook of 8-9. If that team projects to start 1-5 due to a brutal opening stretch, it can derail their whole season. Coaches on losing teams tend to lose locker rooms faster and players on those teams tend to lose motivation. Teams that play an underachieving team later in a season, would likewise get a boost in their win rate.

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