Week 9 is in the books and it’s back to more teams on bye again. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 10 DraftKings plays.
Week 10 DraftKings Plays
Week 9 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
🚨RECAP THREAD🚨
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week in cash builds!#FantasyFootball#NFL#NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague@LastWordOnNFL
https://t.co/rGbQTjts6z— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) November 8, 2021
Looking back at Week 9, it was worse than Week 8 and the worst of the year. This week 44% of the recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback and tight end groups shared the lead with a 60% success rate. Meanwhile, the running back group brought up the rear this week with a 28.6% success rate. It was another week in the negative, unfortunately. The cash build won zero of the seven double-ups and went 5-14 in H2H’s. We’ll look to do even better with the picks and get back in the profits in the Week 10 DraftKings plays.
- Week 9 – $391 → $372 ($19 LOSS)
- Year Total – $2,877 → $2,923 ($46 PROFIT)
Week 10 DraftKings Plays
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (DAL) – $6,900 v ATL
While it hasn’t been the game-breaking season that many were expecting, Dak Prescott has had a really good year. The Dallas Cowboys haven’t been quite as pass-heavy as last year. Despite that, Prescott is still averaging the seventh-most DraftKings points per game with 23.6. His weapons are as good as anyone’s in the league and Michael Gallup is returning this weekend as well. The matchup itself is a beautiful one against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons defense and secondary are not very good. This game has the highest combined total on the slate at 54.5 points and the Cowboys have the highest implied total with 32. This game will also be played at home, in a dome, which is even better for the passing games. Expect a lot of scoring in this one and for Prescott to be heavily involved in that scoring.
Highest passer rating from a clean pocket this season:
🎯 Dak Prescott – 126.6 pic.twitter.com/FKXBlG4wl0
— PFF (@PFF) November 7, 2021
Carson Wentz (IND) – $5,900 v JAX
This is one to keep an eye on with Carson Wentz’s wife due any day now. Although according to Wentz himself, he will be playing in this game no matter what. If that’s the case, he’s in a great spot in this matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have been one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks so far this year. On top of that, the Indianapolis Colts are 10.5-point home favorites with a 29-point implied total. This game is also played in a dome which should be an extra boost to the passing games. As for Wentz himself, he’s had an incredible bounce-back season this year. He’s thrown for 2,198 yards with 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions and he’s run for another 121 yards and a score as well. He’s averaging just under 20 DraftKings points per game with only one game under 17 all year. Wentz looks like the best spend-down option at quarterback this week.
Others to Consider: Josh Allen (BUF) – $7,900 @ NYJ, Tom Brady (TB) – $7,600 @ WAS, Taylor Heinicke (WFT) – $5,400 v TB
Running Backs
Najee Harris (PIT) – $7,900 v DET
What happens when dream volume meets dream matchup? Pure fantasy goodness. That’s what is likely on the docket for Najee Harris this weekend against the lowly Detroit Lions. The Lions are awful on defense. They have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to running backs this season. As for Harris, his workload is second to none. He ranks first among all running backs in snap share, opportunity share, routes run, and weighted opportunities. That sort of volume leads to production, especially in great matchups. Harris only has one game with less than 16.8 DraftKings points and is averaging more than 20 per game. The game script should likely be in his favor as well as the Pittsburgh Steelers are eight-point home favorites in this one. Assuming Harris keeps seeing the workload he has been, he has arguably the highest floor of any player on the entire slate with big-time upside as well.
James Conner (ARI) – $6,300 v CAR
Fresh off a 40-burger, James Conner is coming into this with expectations of a heavier workload. Chase Edmonds suffered a high ankle sprain and will be sidelined for at least a few weeks. That should allow Conner to see an even higher snap and touch share, especially in the passing game. Sure, Eno Benjamin will likely see some work as well but Conner has all the makings of a workhorse in a great offense. Last week, after Edmonds went down on the first play, Conner turned 21 carries and five receptions into 173 total yards and three touchdowns. He’s no stranger to a workhorse role either having done it for years in Pittsburgh so he can certainly handle it for the next few weeks. The game environment is nice as well. The Carolina Panthers aren’t a great matchup on paper but the Arizona Cardinals are 10.5-point home favorites with a 27.5-point implied total. With likely heavy touches in this situation and with a good price, Conner looks like a great play this weekend.
D’Ernest Johnson (CLE) – $4,700 @ NE
Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton are out due to COVID. Kareem Hunt is out with an injury. D’Ernest Johnson is the last man standing for the Cleveland Browns. Johnson is going to be extremely chalky and rightfully so. The last time we saw him take on a full workload he looked extremely impressive. That came in a Week 7 win over the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football. In that game, Johnson piled up 168 total yards and a score on 22 carries and two receptions. A similar workload could be on tap in this one against the New England Patriots. The matchup is pretty good too. The Patriots have allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to running backs this year. This price is simply way too cheap since it came out before Chubb and Felton were ruled out. Sometimes it’s good to just eat the chalk and this is one of those times.
[pickup_prop id=”15180″]
Nick Chubb is OUT for Sunday
Fantasy projections rank D'Ernest Johnson as the overall RB4 for this week 👀
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 12, 2021
Others to Consider: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) – $8,400 @ ARI, Jonathan Taylor (IND) – 8,100 v JAX, Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – $7,000 v ATL, Mark Ingram (NO) – $4,500 @ TEN
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams (GB) – $7,900 v SEA
Let’s not forget that this is the same Davante Adams that was priced at $9,000 just a few weeks ago. It’s the same guy seeing nearly 11 targets per game and league-leading 35.1% target share. The only question mark in this is whether or not Aaron Rodgers will play in this one. It seems likely that he will and if that’s the case, this price is far too cheap. The Seattle Seahawks secondary has been mediocre so far and nothing to fear. Russell Wilson is back on the other side which should help to push the score and keep the game close as well. The current combined total sits at 49.5 points which is the fourth-most on the main slate. Ultimately, it’s Davante Adams at less than $8,000 in a game that could be close and high scoring between two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Diontae Johnson (PIT) – $6,800 v DET
It was only a few months ago that so many people trashed Diontae Johnson because of his drops. Now he’s established himself as the clear alpha receiver on the Steelers and averaging 17.5 DraftKings points per game. Johnson has scored at least 11.7 DraftKings points in every healthy game this year. His 29.2% target share is fifth-most in the NFL. This guy is a truly elite wide receiver in full PPR scoring formats. Luckily, that’s the same format that is used by DraftKings. As mentioned before, this week is a dream matchup against the Lions. The Lions have been middle-of-the-road in terms of DraftKings points allowed to wide receivers this year but they are the least efficient defense in the league against the pass. With Chase Claypool also banged up, this offense could get even more concentrated and Johnson should have no issue putting up great production in this matchup.
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) – $5,300 v PHI
In his second game back from injury Jerry Jeudy looked much more comfortable. He turned eight targets into six receptions for 69 yards. That’s much more in line with what he did in the opening week before getting injured. The matchup this week against the Philadelphia Eagles might seem tough on paper but is better than it seems. The Eagles have been the fourth stingiest team in terms of DraftKings points allowed to wide receivers this year. However, they do a far better job at containing outside receivers than slot guys. Luckily, Jeudy runs most of his routes out of the slot for the Denver Broncos while Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick occupy the outside. This game is also a pace-up spot for Denver as the Eagles are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NFL. There are not very many appealing spend-down options at wide receiver this week and Jeudy is about the cheapest guy you can feel at least somewhat safe with.
Targets per route run this season:
* Jerry Jeudy 19 targets on 76 routes (25.0%)
* Courtland Sutton 64 targets on 323 routes (19.8%)
* Tim Patrick 47 targets on 313 routes (15.0%)— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 8, 2021
Others to Consider: Keenan Allen (LAC) – $7,000 v MIN, Mike Evans (TB) – $6,900 @ WFT, Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) – $6,300 v JAX, Cole Beasley (BUF) – $5,200 @ NYJ, Amari Cooper (DAL) – $6,200 v ATL
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts (ATL) – $5,800 @ DAL
Let’s just preface this by saying that it’s not really a week to spend up at tight end. In cash game builds there’s simply too much value to pass up. In GPPs though, it’s a nice way to get a different build than what most people will do. Given that, Kyle Pitts makes for a great option. The Cowboys have been getting beat through the air this year by both tight ends and wide receivers. Pitts is basically a wide receiver with tight end eligibility considering his usage. He’s running a route on 82.2% of dropbacks which is the fourth-most among all tight ends. His 19.5% target share is seventh-most among all tight ends. As previously mentioned, the game environment is awesome in this one this week. Playing in a pace-up spot, as an underdog, in a dome, and the highest combined total on the slate should give Pitts a great shot at producing big numbers this weekend.
Dan Arnold (JAX) – $3,500 @ IND
Dan Arnold has emerged not only as a great value option but also as an every-week starter at tight end at this point. Over the last four games, he has 30 targets. Arnold has been able to produce double-digit DraftKings points in three of those four games. He’s continued to be cheap too and stays cheap again this week. As previously mentioned, the game environment is pretty good in this one. It currently has a 47.5-point combined total and is being played in a dome. The Colts have been a bit leaky to tight ends this year as they’ve allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to tight ends so far this year. Whenever a tight end is running as many routes and seeing as many targets as Arnold is and is playing in a good spot, it makes for a great spend-down option.
Dan Arnold's ranks among TEs in his last 4 games:
3rd in targets
3rd in catches
5th in yards
8th in half-PPR points— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 10, 2021
Others to Consider: Pat Freiermuth (PIT) – $3,900 v DET, Tyler Conklin (MIN) – $3,400 @ LAC, Jared Cook (LAC) – $3,200 v MIN
Defense/Special Teams
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. My advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Dak Prescott
- RB – Najee Harris
- RB – D’Ernest Johnson
- WR – Diontae Johnson
- WR – Jerry Jeudy
- WR – Davante Adams
- TE – Tyler Conklin
- Flex – Mark Ingram
- DST – Tennessee Titans
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 10 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 11. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
Main Photo:
Embed from Getty Images
