Every offseason brings a fresh round of quarterback rankings, MVP predictions, and debates over who belongs among the NFL’s elite. While there is little disagreement about players like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow, the conversation becomes much more subjective about who the most overrated quarterbacks are in the NFL.
Being overrated does not mean a quarterback is bad. It simply means public perception has climbed higher than what the production and accomplishments have justified. Heading into the 2026 season, these three quarterbacks fit that description more than anyone else. Each of them has talent, but their reputations have grown faster than their résumés.
The NFL’s Most Overrated Quarterbacks
3. Dak Prescott
No player on this list is more complicated than Dak Prescott, because his weekly output is rarely an issue. In 2025, Prescott threw for 4,552 yards, 67.3% completion rate, 30 passing touchdowns, just 10 interceptions, and a passer rating of 99.5. Those are good stats, and on paper, should not qualify him as one of the NFL’s most overrated quarterbacks.
The fact that Prescott made it here doesn’t have to do with his individual stats.
Every season, the Dallas Cowboys come into the season confident that they have an elite passer who can help lead them to the Super Bowl. Every year, Prescott’s name is in the mix when discussing the league’s best passers. Despite that, the disappointment has mounted, leaving Prescott defined more by what goes wrong in January, if the Cowboys even make it that far.
That does not erase what he accomplishes between September and January, but it does make it difficult to place him in the same conversation as quarterbacks who have consistently delivered when the stakes are highest. That is exactly why he finds himself on this list of overrated quarterbacks.
2. Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence came into the league with as high a set of expectations as most quarterbacks in NFL history have ever had. The former No. 1 pick was expected to immediately become one of the faces of the league.
There have definitely been glimpses.
Lawrence threw for 4,007 yards with 29 passing touchdowns on the 2025 season but just 60.9% completions, 12 interceptions, and a 91.0 passer rating. None of those numbers would put him in the perennial conversation for MVP consideration or a top 10 quarterback.
There is plenty of room to grow with Lawrence, and he has been discussed as someone worth building a franchise around. The concern here is that the value people are assigning him is more about what they believe he will be, rather than what he’s shown he is. After five years in the NFL, he has not proven that he should be “the guy” that the Jaguars should build around, and is now being identified as one of the more overrated quarterbacks in the league.
The NFL’s Most Overrated Quarterback
1. Justin Herbert
It’s not hyperbole to call Justin Herbert the poster boy for underperforming despite all the potential. Almost every offseason, you see Herbert pop up as a dark-horse MVP favorite or among some analysts’ top five QB rankings. The stats, however, don’t back up the hype, which is only half the reason he tops this list as the NFL’s most overrated quarterbacks.
Herbert finished the 2025 season with 66.4% of his passes completed, 3,727 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a 94.1 rating.
This is good for an NFL quarterback, but hardly sets him apart in the league. Matthew Stafford had 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns with a 109.2 passer rating. Jared Goff had 4,564 passing yards and 34 touchdowns with a 105.5 rating. Dak Prescott had 4,552 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, and Trevor Lawrence’s passing numbers exceeded 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns.
Somehow, Herbert usually ranks higher than several of these guys, if not all of them, on analysts’ lists.
There’s no doubt in anybody’s mind about Herbert’s physical capabilities. He has an incredibly strong arm that is undoubtedly among the best in the game. However, eventually, elite tools have to be converted to elite performance and postseason accolades. The 2025 campaign is more of the same for the Chargers quarterback, and his status has always been well ahead of his resume.
Herbert’s stats, however, are not the only reason he is on this list for most overrated quarterbacks.
Herbert’s Stats Are Not the Only Reason
The second argument for why Herbert’s resume starts to collapse is his postseason accomplishments. Entering just about every year as an MVP favorite, Herbert is one of the consensus top five quarterbacks, but he has yet to win a playoff game (0-3 as a starter), which is what solidifies his spot on this overrated quarterbacks list.
Worse than the wins and losses are the results: in the three playoff games he played, Herbert threw for 674 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions with a 54.7% completion rate (and a 64.7 passer rating).
The worst performance for Herbert may have been against Houston after the 2024 season, when in a 32-12 loss in the Wild Card, he tossed four interceptions – nearly as many as he threw during the entirety of the 2024 regular season.
After a missed chance against the Texans following the 2024 season, the Patriots did him another solid in the 2025 playoffs, where he tossed no touchdown passes in a 16-3 loss, only throwing for 159 yards, and the Chargers offense only scored three points.
Top quarterbacks, no matter how, are ultimately measured by how they perform in the big moments, and there’s no question that Herbert may have one of the strongest arms in the NFL. His resume does not, however, support the elite ranking he gets from many media members, and until he proves he can carry this team in January, he simply can’t be compared to those in the elite tier.
Can These Overrated Quarterbacks Change the Narrative?
There is a difference between being overrated and being bad, and these overrated quarterbacks are not bad at all. Herbert, Lawrence, and Prescott are all good QBs who are worthy of starting in the NFL. They simply continue to garner top-tier acclaim for production, awards, and postseason hardware they haven’t yet earned.
Until their resume fills up to meet expectations, it feels like these discussions won’t stop anytime soon. Of course, the label of one of the NFL’s most overrated quarterbacks is not permanent. One breakout season can completely change the narrative.
Main Image: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images
