As everyone expected, the Las Vegas Raiders selected Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Could he take his new team to the playoffs in 2026?
Mendoza was a college superstar with the Indiana Hoosiers, and he could eventually turn out to be an elite NFL quarterback. However, leading a team to the playoffs as a rookie is an extremely difficult task. But it’s not impossible.
Will Fernando Mendoza Lead the Raiders to the Playoffs in 2026?
Fernando Mendoza attended Christopher Columbus High School in Miami, Florida. During his career there, he passed for 1,396 yards and 16 touchdowns while rushing for 137 yards and a score. He originally committed to play college football at Yale University before choosing the University of California, Berkeley.
Mendoza would play two seasons at Cal. In 2024, he was the third-leading passer in the ACC with 3,004 passing yards. He also accounted for 18 total touchdowns. In addition, he led the Bears to six wins and a bowl game in their first season as members of the ACC.
Fernando Mendoza had several memorable performances in 2024. He threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns in a 21-14 road win at Auburn. Plus, he had 285 passing yards and two scores in the Bears’ 39-38 loss to then-No. 8 Miami. In addition, Mendoza led a comeback and a 98-yard winning touchdown drive for a 24-21 victory over Stanford in his final game with the Bears.
Mendoza transferred to Indiana during the 2025 offseason, replacing Kurtis Rourke. He would put together a spectacular debut season at Indiana, throwing for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns while rushing for seven scores.
Mendoza was named the Associated Press Player of the Year and won the Heisman Trophy. He also led an unbeaten and top-ranked Indiana to its first Big Ten championship since 1967 and the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
In addition, Mendoza powered the Hoosiers to a national championship as they defeated Miami 27-21 in the title game. He was named the 2026 National Championship Offensive MVP.
No. 1 Pick QB Rookies Who’ve Made the Playoffs
There have been several legendary quarterbacks who were drafted No. 1 overall. Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, and Peyton Manning are a few great examples. Yet, only two quarterbacks who were No. 1 overall picks (John Elway and Andrew Luck) have appeared in a playoff game as a rookie.
During Elway’s rookie year (1983), he started 10 games and was briefly benched, but helped the 9-7 Denver Broncos reach the postseason. That year, Elway appeared in Denver’s lone playoff game against the Seattle Seahawks, replacing starter Steve DeBerg in the second half. The Broncos lost to Seattle 31-7.
Fast-forward to 2012. Luck immediately helped turn around the Indianapolis Colts, who posted a 2-14 record the previous year. As a rookie, the former Stanford star led the Colts to an 11-5 record and a trip to the postseason. Unlike Elway, Luck started a playoff game. Indianapolis lost, though, to the Baltimore Ravens 24-9 in the Wild Card round.
Is It Realistic for Mendoza?
Las Vegas finished with a horrible 3-14 record last season. Again, it isn’t impossible for Mendoza to transform the Raiders into a playoff team in 2026. But it’s highly unrealistic.
Mendoza will be surrounded by exciting offensive weapons like tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty. And the Raiders’ defense still has star edge rusher Maxx Crosby, who was traded this offseason before a failed physical sent him back to Las Vegas.
Don’t expect Mendoza and Co. to be a playoff team in 2026, though. While they possess talented pieces, the Raiders just likely won’t be good enough.
Main Image: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
