The most important part of the fantasy season is here. The first round of the playoffs has come and gone, and only two weeks remain. The top two seeds have had their bye weeks; now it’s a free-for-all. These are fantasy semifinal matchups to watch.
Matchups To Watch For The Fantasy Semifinals
Quarterback
Kyler Murray vs Carolina
Kyler Murray has been slightly disappointing in fantasy this season. His 16.6 points per game average isn’t bad, but he’s been inconsistent. Murray hasn’t cracked 18 points since Week 10, but he’s scored over 20 five times this season. He has the potential to go for big games due to his rushing upside, but it hasn’t happened consistently enough.
However, if there was ever a matchup to exploit, it’s this week against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers allow the 6th most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the second most to tight ends, and the second most to running backs. Their defense has suffered injuries all season, and it shows. The Cardinals are five-point favorites in a game with a 47.5 over/under, so they’re in a fantastic spot to put up points.
The Cardinals are also fighting for their playoff lives, and this is a must-win game for them. Expect Murray to find the end zone at least twice between his passing and rushing.
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs vs Chicago
The moment every Jahmyr Gibbs owner has been waiting for is here. He will have the Detroit Lions backfield all to himself. David Montgomery suffered a season-ending MCL injury against Buffalo on Sunday. This means that Gibbs no longer has to share touches with anybody.
Despite only playing 54% of snaps this season, Gibbs is the RB3 in total points. He has 14 touchdowns this season, and Montgomery has 12. The Lions split their backfield touches intelligently so that Gibbs, with his speed and slighter frame, can get more rest to rip off big plays. However, with Montgomery out, Gibbs will have to play a bellcow role in one of the league’s best offenses.
It’s a fantasy dream, and it comes at the right time. This week, Gibbs faces a Bears team that allows the fifth most fantasy points to running backs. The Lions are also favored by seven points, and the bookmakers have Gibbs at -350 to score a touchdown. Gibbs has four multi-touchdown games this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising if this Sunday is his fifth.
Wide Receiver
Malik Nabers vs Atlanta
After a flying start, Malik Nabers’s fantasy season has slowed down. Week 15 was his first week with over 20 fantasy points since Week 4, and he scored his first touchdown since Week 3. Naber’s elite volume gives him a very high floor. He only has one game with less than ten points all season, and the fewest targets he’s had in a game is seven.
It doesn’t help that the Giants are awful and have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league. That said, they’re often in negative game scripts and are forced to throw the ball a lot. That shouldn’t change this week against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons allow the fourth most fantasy points to wide receivers, especially struggling against outside receivers.
The Falcons are reeling; they just made a quarterback change and are fighting for their playoff lives. The defense allowed over 30 fantasy points to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in the same game just two weeks ago. The quarterback play is an issue, but Nabers is in a great spot this week.
Tight End
George Kittle vs Miami
George Kittle is one of the most consistent tight ends in the NFL. Many playoff teams likely have him on their roster, especially with most big-name tight ends ending up as disappointments. The 49ers season has been a mess, but Kittle is one of the few bright spots.
This week, they face a Miami Dolphins team in a similar situation. Both teams had playoff aspirations before the season, and the losing team is sure to be out of the race. The 49ers have struggled with injuries. They’re down to their fourth-string running back, the offensive line and defense have significant injuries, and Deebo Samuel is playing some of the worst football in his career.
With that said, Kittle and Jauan Jennings are now the only reliable weapons for Brock Purdy in this offense. The fantasy matchup itself against Miami isn’t anything special. They’re in the middle of the pack for points allowed to tight ends, but they did allow 31.3 points to Brock Bowers just a few weeks ago. Kittle’s role is more critical than ever due to all the injuries and players struggling. He’s also a leader in the locker room and has been known to step up in big moments. These factors make Kittle against Miami one of the more intriguing fantasy semifinal matchups.
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