The Baltimore Ravens have a 95% chance of making the playoffs, but their odds of winning it all will change substantially between now and the start of the regular season. Following their loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore now sits 1.5 games out of first place in the AFC North, and that’s before accounting for Pittsburgh’s advantage in the head-to-head tiebreaker. Losing the AFC North means that Baltimore would have to travel for the Wild Card round and, in all likelihood, the entirety of their playoff run.
While Pittsburgh has the upper hand in the race for the division, it’s not too late for the Ravens to steal the AFC North crown. While it’s unlikely either team ends up with the AFC’s lone bye week, the benefits of winning the division could be the difference between a quick postseason exit and a deep run toward the Super Bowl. If the Ravens want to improve their odds of winning their first Super Bowl since the Joe Flacco days, they must do the following steps.
Baltimore Ravens Path to the Playoffs
Step 1: Win Out
It goes without saying, but the Ravens must win football games to win the AFC North. While the team can afford to drop one or two games and still earn a Wild Card spot, their odds of winning the division effectively disappear if they don’t finish the season on a six-game winning streak.
Far and away the most important contest is Week 16’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. As mentioned above, the Ravens are 1.5 games behind Pittsburgh in the standings, and they would lose on the head-to-head tiebreaker. While they need some help to match Pittsburgh’s overall record at the end of the season, a Week 16 means that the head-to-head tiebreaker would not determine the winner of the division. It’s too early in the season to say who would win the next round of tiebreakers, but it’s Baltimore’s best hope of hosting a playoff game.
Of course, the Steelers aren’t the only thing standing between the Ravens and a comfortable run in the playoffs. Baltimore’s top priority should be winning their Week 12 matchup against the white-hot Los Angeles Chargers. After an slow, injury-plagued start to the season, Justin Herbert is playing the best football of his career and has performed like an MVP over the past month or two. After that, the Ravens must take on the Philadelphia Eagles before entering their Week 14 bye.
Step 2: Root For Steeler Losses
Beating the Steelers in Week 16 will help the Ravens push for the playoffs, but it won’t be enough to give them the AFC North crown. If that’s going to happen, the Steelers must lose at least one more game, and hopefully two. Fortunately for the Ravens, the Steelers have a difficult stretch of games at the close of the season.
In addition to their game against the Ravens, Pittsburgh finishes the season with matchups against the Browns (twice), Bengals (twice), Eagles, and Chiefs. While they should take care of business against Cleveland, the other four games will not be easy. Cincinnati’s defense might be a trainwreck, but Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have the talent to win any game in a shootout. The Eagles and Chiefs, meanwhile, are two of the best teams in football and won’t go down easily.
Barring a collapse, the Baltimore Ravens will make the playoffs. While a Wild Card birth is the most likely outcome, there is still a path to the AFC North crown.
Main Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck – USA Today Sports
