Often dynasty managers want to blow it all up for a rebuild. While that is a viable strategy, knowing when to rebuild and understanding the value of draft picks is equally important. Let’s look at the difference between each dynasty draft pick and determine what they’re worth in an ever-changing market.
What Is a Dynasty Draft Pick Worth? Dynasty Fantasy Football Analysis
Early First (Top Three)
Regardless of how strong a draft class is, there’s normally a locked and loaded top three. Even in 2022 with a weaker QB class, Breece Hall Kenneth Walker and Drake London were all viable options. For that reason, an early first shouldn’t be moved unless the team trading it away gets a clear contributor. Even if it’s not the 1.01, it will often produce a plug-and-play player at their position for years to come. Treat them similarly to the upper echelon of a position, and risk-averse managers can sprinkle other players on top to move to proven contributors closer to draft day.
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Mid-First (Fringe Playoff Teams)
Until the rookie order is established, there are four or five teams that could all either sneak into the playoffs or end up with the 1.04. For that reason, if you’re trading it away try and value it as closer to 1.04 than 1.09. Teams looking to make a playoff push can often acquire veteran contributors who have age concerns, plus something on top. Moving middle-of-the-road firsts to get to the playoffs and make the pick worse is a great strategy, but savvy trade partners will recognize this and devalue the pick early in the season. Rebuilders should look to acquire these firsts early in the season before the playoff picture is clearer and the pick gains value.
Playoff First
Like clockwork dynasty players think there’s a tier break at the 1.06-1.07. Then as the draft cycle moves along, the tier gets bigger and bigger until eventually it bleeds to the end of the first round. Buying or holding these picks until closer to draft day is the best way to squeeze value out of them, but moving them to make a title run can take a fringe playoff team to a clear-cut contender. Players being bought with playoff firsts often come with age risk or role concerns, but if you can acquire a younger player with some longevity, late firsts are a gamble more than some players are willing to admit.
What is a Second-Round Dynasty Draft Pick Worth?
This is where understanding the strength of the draft class comes in handy. In weaker classes, there’s either a steep drop-off in the late first or early second of the rookie draft. Stronger classes will have players who can provide value scattered throughout the second round. 2025 looks to be on the stronger side in the running back department, but quarterbacks and receivers lack the depth to push value down the board. Keep an eye on 2025 draft boards and see if anyone bumps their value up as the season goes on.
What is a Third-Round Dynasty Draft Pick Worth?
This might be a bit of a hot take, but third-round picks are closer to second-round picks than seconds are to firsts. They’re both often scattered with day two wide receivers and day three running backs, and the hit rate for each is similar enough to not cause a major dropoff. If someone won’t part with a second-round pick, two third-round picks sound much more manageable but will give you two shots at similar hit rates. Players given up for thirds should be fill-ins for bye weeks, running back handcuffs, and wide receivers who just spiked but don’t have a long-term role.
Fourth-Round Dynasty Draft Pick Value
Fourth and fifth-round dynasty picks are dart throws at best. Maybe there’s a late gem that you really had your eye on. Maybe a quarterback handcuff in superflex leagues can cause an increase in value over time. These should be treated as throw-ins, extra shots, and not worth anything much more than a fun option.
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