When the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns kick off their latest matchup in Week 7, it will have been 2,576 days since the Bengals beat the Browns in Cleveland. Yes, that’s correct. The Cincinnati Bengals’ last victory in Cleveland was on October 1, 2017. Cincinnati won 31-7 thanks to Andy Dalton passing 25-of-30 for 286 yards and four touchdowns. The Bengals won the battle of 0-3 teams that year. The Browns ended up going 0-16 that year.
This year, Cincinnati is 2-4 while Cleveland has floundered to a 1-5 mark. It’s been an ugly start for both teams. Only the Bengals have shown any signs of life, however. Fresh off a win over the New York Giants, the Bengals have a prime opportunity to string a pair of wins together and get a game away from .500.
Week 7 Gives Cincinnati Bengals Chance to Exorcise “Elfs” Demons
Not a Fluke
Through the first five weeks of the season, the Bengals’ defense was bad. Awful. Atrocious. Porous. If there is a negative adjective out there, it was used to describe the Bengals defense. Against the Giants, it looked like the unit got back on track. Through six weeks, the defense looked decent against two teams: the New England Patriots and the Giants. In Week 1 against the Patriots, the defense could not tackle. Last week, it looked like that was fixed. However, against good quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels, the defense could not get anything going.
This week, they’ll have the opportunity to not only show that last week was not a fluke but also to build on it. Thankfully, Deshaun Watson has been legitimately one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. To make things worse for Cleveland, the Browns traded away leading receiver, Amari Cooper.
The Bengals defense is 14th in the NFL allowing 210 passing yards. On the other end, they are fifth-worst in rush defense (146 yards per game), seventh-worst in scoring (25.3 points per game), and 10th-worst in total defense (356 yards per game).
A Moveable Object Will Meet a Stoppable Force.
The Browns have the worst total offense (240.2 yards per game), third-worst passing offense (143 yards per game), third-worst scoring offense (15.9 points per game), and fifth-worst rushing offense (97.2 yards per game). Watson is 24th in the NFL with 1,020 passing yards, tied for 25th with five touchdowns, 27th with a 61.3% completion percentage, 31st in passing play success rate with 31.3%, 28th in QB Rating (according to Pro-Football-Reference) with 76.6, and he has a 31st-ranked 21.7 QBR (via ESPN).
No quarterback has been sacked as frequently as Watson, either. He’s been taken down a whopping 31 times through six games…11 more than the next (Caleb Williams, 20). 16 of those sacks were surrendered to players listed as linebackers on NFL rosters. That could mean both traditional linebackers and EDGE rushers like Micah Parsons. Seven sacks were credited to defensive tackles, six went to defensive ends, and two were from safeties.
According to PFF, five sacks were assigned to Browns guards, four were tackles, and two were centers. This means 20 sacks were the fault of Watson, his running backs, and/or his tight ends.
Needless to say, Trey Hendrickson and the rest of the Bengals’ edge rushers should be able to get to Watson.
Get Off The Field
Perhaps the best example of the “moveable object meets stoppable force” is on third down.
Heading into this game, the Bengals’ defense is giving up conversations on third down on 44.7% of attempts. That is “good” for the seventh-worst mark in the NFL. Additionally, among teams who have faced at least 10 fourth downs, the Bengals have the worst rate, allowing opposing offenses to convert 71.4% of the time (10 of 14).
By far the worst offense in the NFL on third down is that of the Browns. Cleveland has converted on just 19.2% of its third downs to this point. To break it down further, according to PFR, on passing plays the Browns convert 21.7% of the time ( 13 of 60 with 13 sacks). On the ground (including scrambles), it’s 19.2%.
The key to this game on defense for the Bengals is to continue this trend. Against the Giants – who had converted 37.5% of third downs heading into the game – the Bengals’ defense held New York to 5/15 (33%). Watson has been awful this year. Making sure he doesn’t have a big game to kick-start his season will be the way Cincinnati escapes with a win.
Take Care of the Ball
To this point, the Bengals’ offense has done well in avoiding turnovers. Even with Zack Moss‘s fumble last weekend, the Bengals have only turned it over six times, good for sixth-fewest in the NFL.
Joe Burrow has been on an MVP-like pace despite the disappointing 2-4 start. He is taking care of the ball, as he has throughout his career. Through six games, Burrow has passed for 1,578 yards and 12 touchdowns with just two interceptions. One interception was a miscommunication with Ja’Marr Chase on a scramble drill and the other was on a weak route by Chase where he was out-physicalled on a slant.
The Browns, meanwhile, have forced a total of five turnovers, all in three games. They’ve hauled in just one interception and recovered four fumbles. Those five turnovers rank tied for the 10th fewest in the NFL.
Cleveland has had the Bengals’ number over the last few years. Ever since that win in Cleveland in 2017, Cincinnati has won just three times over 12 meetings. Given, one of those wins – the most recent in Week 18 of last year – Burrow did not play and neither team had anything to play for at that point.
Cincinnati owns a 53-48 record over Cleveland despite the recent trend. They are 20-30 in Cleveland (12-13 since the Browns returned to Cleveland). It’s a contentious rivalry with legendary performances from both sides. Even though neither team looks like world-beaters at this point, this should be another hard-fought game between Ohio’s professional football clubs.
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