Justin Herbert’s season was cut short last year due to an injury. It wasn’t a back injury after carrying the Chargers offense, but Los Angeles has a new look around Herbert in 2024. With many changes being made, what should Herbert’s expectations be for fantasy this year?
2024 Fantasy Football Profile: Justin Herbert
2023 in Review
Even with missing the last four games of the season, Herbert finished as the QB17 last year among all fantasy quarterbacks. He had just four games last season where he scored less than 14 fantasy points, and one of those games was when he was injured. Herbert threw touchdown passes in all but three games, and he threw multiple touchdowns in six games.
Most of Herbert’s “issues” last season came from a disappointing group of wide receivers. Joshua Palmer missed significant time due to injury, and Quentin Johnston has been a disappointment. He didn’t have much to work with outside of Keenan Allen.
Justin Herbert gets way too much hate for how elite he truly is. Imagine calling all of this overrated. 😂 pic.twitter.com/xA3Y7s75nB
— ًBoltUpYo (@BoltUpYo) August 28, 2024
Herbert also suffered from having a weak run game with Austin Ekeler’s injury concerns and then not producing much when he did play. Opposing defenses were able to scheme against Herbert and take Allen out of the picture all season long.
2024 Projection
The Chargers lost Allen in a trade with the Chicago Bears to escape salary cap hell, but they didn’t (or couldn’t) do much to replace him. D.J. Chark signed a contract in May, but the biggest move was drafting Ladd McConkey. McConkey will give Herbert a target to hit over the middle of the field. Herbert is going to have to make the most of his receiving group this year.
However, Jim Harbaugh did invest in the offensive line to help protect Herbert. Drafting Joe Alt to fill the gap at right tackle is going to ensure Herbert takes less hits and stays healthy.
If Herbert can stay healthy, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be able to throw 30 touchdown passes this season. He has the potential to finish in the Top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks because he did it twice in his first two seasons. This season is all about making the most of his opportunities. Herbert can certainly do that in Los Angeles.
🚨HISTORIC: #Chargers QB Justin Herbert needs 4,000 passing yards to become the 3RD PLAYER IN #NFL HISTORY to so 4 of their first 5 seasons.
He would join two legends Patrick Mahomes and Peyton Manning.
HERBERT HAS BEEN SPECIAL…
👀👀👀 pic.twitter.com/daqpzj5t49
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) August 29, 2024
Justin Herbert Fantasy Football ADP
FantasyPros lists Herbert’s ADP at 123 with a range of 82-157. Drafting a quarterback like Herbert in Rounds 10-13 is great value with his upside. It’s one of the many reasons so many people wait until the later rounds in leagues that start one quarterback.
Herbert is a player who provides value regardless of where you draft him in that range. There’s more value if you get him closer to his ADP or after, but he’s a player you can wait for and stock up on other positions. As long as he stays healthy, Herbert will justify his ADP. If he puts up a season like he does in his first two years, then Herbert becomes a steal that can help you win your league.
Main Photo Courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio – USA Today Sports
