The Pittsburgh Steelers enter the 2024 season with hopes of returning to the land of playoff success. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game in their last four trips to the playoffs, with their last postseason victory coming in January 2017. Betting markets aren’t convinced the Steelers will turn it around; their odds of making the playoffs sit at +152 and their over/under for wins is 8.5. There are some interesting Steelers prop bets to take a look at prior to the start of the season, though.
*All lines and odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Most Intriguing 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers Prop Bets
George Pickens Over 4.5 Touchdowns, -142
Although the odds are juiced to the over, it still feels like the market is underestimating George Pickens entering the 2024 season. He easily established himself as the team’s top receiving threat in 2023 when he led the Steelers in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Diontae Johnson was traded to the Carolina Panthers, too, so there is currently no Robin to Pickens’ Batman on Pittsburgh’s roster.
There could be a few factors working against Pickens. First, Arthur Smith will have the Steelers running the ball at a high clip. Further, the Steelers aren’t set to have great quarterback play, though Pickens was able to produce just fine with the league’s worst quarterback play last season. And finally, if Pittsburgh is able to complete a trade for Brandon Aiyuk, Pickens’ target share will come down. Still, it’s hard to imagine Pickens will fail to haul in five touchdowns this year. Russell Wilson can still throw it deep, and there aren’t many receivers in the NFL better than Pickens at going up and high-pointing a 50-50 jump ball.
T.J. Watt Over 13.75 Sacks, -112
Sacks are a stat that are hard to predict as there are so many factors at play. A player could consistently get pressure, but a quarterback could get rid of the ball just before being taken down. T.J. Watt is the one pass rusher in the NFL to whom sack volatility doesn’t seem to apply, though. Other than the 2022 season, when he missed seven games due to injury, Watt hasn’t finished with less than 14.5 sacks in five years.
Of all these Steelers prop bets, this is the bet with the most history on its side. Watt has led the NFL in sacks three times and has shown a consistent ability to bring down opposing quarterbacks. The biggest question mark, obviously, is health. Watt has dealt with injuries, some major and some minor, basically every season of his career. Typically, Watt has not been slowed down by minor injuries. So, it feels like a major injury is the only thing that could keep Watt from securing 14 or more sacks in 2024.
Najee Harris Over 800.5 Rushing Yards, -112
Here’s another one with history on its side. Najee Harris has rushed for more than 1000 yards in all three of his NFL seasons. There’s a good chance for him to do it again in 2024, but he only needs to rack up 801 rushing yards for this bet to hit. Yes, Harris will be splitting carries with Jaylen Warren, but he was already doing that last year when he ran for 1034 yards. Plus, Smith will feature the run game often. Couple that with an improved run-blocking offensive line, and Harris should be good for 800+ yards, even if he doesn’t get there in the most efficient manner.
Each of these Steelers prop bets is worth a look. There are question marks for the Steelers on offense, but the consistency of Najee Harris and the big play potential of George Pickens are known quantities. And defensively, Pittsburgh returns most of their very good and consistent unit from 2023, including T.J. Watt and his ability to terrorize opposing quarterbacks.
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