Josh Allen was the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy football last year, but the Buffalo Bills superstar enters the 2024 season facing questions about whether he can replicate that elite production after an offseason roster overhaul by the AFC contenders.
Longtime top target Stefon Diggs was traded to the Houston Texans. Fellow starter Gabe Davis left in free agency to join the Jacksonville Jaguars. Depth wideouts Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield Sr. also departed the organization. Khalil Shakir is the only wide receiver who caught a pass from Allen in 2023 who’s still on the roster.
In turn, will the quarterback struggle to remain a top-tier fantasy option? Or will his dual-threat ability keep him among the best bets at the key position in 2024? Let’s analyze the situation before also taking a look at his likely backup, Mitchell Trubisky.
Bills Quarterbacks 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Josh Allen
Allen has emerged as a model of fantasy consistency since taking over as Buffalo’s full-time starter in 2019. Here are his yearly PPR ranks among quarterbacks, per Pro Football Reference:
- 2019: 288.6 points (QB6)
- 2020: 396.1 points (QB1)
- 2021: 402.6 points (QB1)
- 2022: 395.5 points (QB2)
- 2023: 392.6 points (QB1)
In 2019, when the University of Wyoming product was still developing as a passer, he finished the campaign with a modest 3,089 passing yards and 20 touchdowns through the air. He was still a fringe top-five option because of his rushing. Allen has averaged 601.8 yards and 8.8 touchdowns on the ground across his six NFL seasons. He’s coming off a year where he scored 15 rushing TDs. That’s why the 28-year-old perennial MVP candidate remains a terrific foundational piece in fantasy. Even if the Bills passing game struggles at times, especially early in the season while trying to build a rapport and find a rhythm, his individual scoring should be fine.
We’ve also reached a point where quarterbacks are quite underrated in the fantasy realm. Despite Allen’s recent dominance and consistent production, his average draft position (ADP) is 21.2, according to Yahoo Fantasy. Yes, running backs and wide receivers are crucial. Yet, having a quarterback who averages 23.1 points per game and regularly posts monster scores is a game-changer. That’s particularly true when the investment is only a late-second or early-third-round pick. A strong waiver-wire game can unearth gems at RB and WR throughout the year. The same typically can’t be said about QBs.
Having a signal-caller like Allen creates an extra roster spot, too. Since there’s no need to have a backup, you can add a one-week filler during his bye, and you can throw an extra draft dart at a rusher or pass-catcher in the latter rounds. All told it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Allen finish as the QB1 in fantasy again in 2024. Even without Diggs and Davis, he has a well-rounded group of targets (Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, Dawson Knox, and others) at his disposal. Draft him with confidence, especially if he slides into the early part of Round 3.
2024 Projection: 388 points (QB2)
Mitchell Trubisky
One of the toughest parts about fantasy football is knowing whether a non-elite quarterback can produce when replacing a top-tier option in a strong offense. Trubisky has finished as a top-15 fantasy QB just once, and that came back in 2018 with the Chicago Bears. He previously served as Allen’s backup in 2021 but didn’t make any starts. Then, he spent the past two years with the Pittsburgh Steelers. His time in Pittsburgh didn’t go well. He threw eight touchdowns and ten interceptions across 12 appearances (seven starts). He added four rushing scores.
Trubisky will have to beat out Shane Buechele during training camp and the preseason. He’d likely have to perform incredibly poor to lose the role, though. It would be surprising for a Super Bowl contender to enter the year with a backup quarterback who’s never taken a regular-season snap. If the 29-year-old Ohio native enters the Bills lineup, he’ll have some fringe fantasy appeal. He won’t be an every-week starter, but he could provide value as a fill-in option against weaker passing defenses, given the talent level around him.
That said, if Trubisky is under center it’ll be a hit to the fantasy value of Buffalo’s pass-catchers, especially Shakir and Kincaid. It might provide a boost to James Cook, however, as he’d likely get more involved via check-down passes in addition to his rushing work in that scenario. Allen has only missed one game since 2019, though. Bills fans and fantasy managers hope that string of durability continues in 2024.
Main Image: Jamie Germano – USA Today Sports
