Sean McDermott is entering his eighth season as the Buffalo Bills head coach. One national NFL writer believes it may be his last.
Cody Benjamin of CBS Sports named eight coaches Thursday who enter the 2024 campaign on the hot seat, saying they are on “potentially shaky ground.” McDermott made the list.
Is it possible the Bills could move on from a coach who helped them end a 17-year playoff drought in 2017 and has guided them to six postseason appearances in seven years? Let’s analyze the situation.
Sean McDermott Named As Candidate For 2024 Hot Seat
Lack Of Playoff Success Cited As Main Reason
Buffalo’s inability to get over the playoff hump was a key factor in choosing McDermott, according to Benjamin. He likened the situation to another high-profile NFL head coach.
“Not only does McDermott come from the Andy Reid tree, but his head-coaching resume all but mirrors Reid’s early Philadelphia Eagles career, when year after year of regular-season success—and resilient locker-room culture—was overshadowed only by a failure to reach the big game,” Benjamin wrote. “In that way, it’s hard to envision Buffalo truly eyeing a change up top. And yet McDermott’s teams have reached just one AFC title game in five seasons with MVP-level Josh Allen as the full-time quarterback. Now overseeing an overhauled roster, the coach’s long-term prospects are cloudier than usual.”
It’s a fair criticism. The Bills are 73-41 (.640 winning percentage) in the regular season during McDermott’s tenure but just 5-6 (.455) in the playoffs. Playing in the AFC, the far tougher conference in large part due to Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs, hasn’t helped their cause. That said, the only thing that matters is capturing a Super Bowl. Buffalo has fallen short so far.
Three of the Bills playoff losses over that stretch came against the Chiefs, including last season’s 27-24 defeat in the Divisional Round. The other postseason exits came at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, and Cincinnati Bengals.
Team owner Terry Pegula may not have a Super Bowl-or-bust mentality, though. Pegula purchased the franchise in 2014, three years after he purchased the NHL’s Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres haven’t made the playoffs since the first year of his ownership reign. They own that league’s longest active postseason absence at 13 seasons.
So between his knowledge of the prior Bills’ 17-year drought and the current Sabres’ 13-year drought, it’s possible Pegula views merely making the playoffs more favorably than some of his fellow owners across the North American sports spectrum.
Roster Turnover Creates Challenge For McDermott
Perhaps no NFL team witnessed more key, long-term contributors walk out the door this offseason than Buffalo. The list includes Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Leonard Floyd, Mitch Morse, Dane Jackson, Latavius Murray, and Tim Settle, among others.
The intent from general manager Brandon Beane was clear: create financial flexibility for 2025 and beyond by absorbing much of the salary-cap pain in 2024. The high expectations haven’t departed, however, and that puts pressure on McDermott to deliver.
Buffalo did make some additions, but they were mostly of the depth variety. Veterans like Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool, Dawuane Smoot, Casey Toohill, and Deion Jones will compete for spots on the depth chart. The draft class was headlined by wide receiver Keon Coleman and safety Cole Bishop. They could both be Day 1 starters. That probably wouldn’t have happened without the widespread roster changes.
McDermott must find a way to maximize the remaining talent. Obviously having Allen under center helps immensely, but it takes more than one player to win consistently in the NFL.
“Every year you start anew, and you keep that first game in front of you and that’s what you focus on,” McDermott told reporters in March. “People want to say this and that, but every year is different. We’ve had to make a lot of changes to get underneath the cap, let’s just start there. So with our roster right now, we’re a work in progress, and we’ll see where we get to, but the most important thing is that everyone understands their roles and embraces their roles.”
Yet, he added the ultimate goal hasn’t changed: “We’re all still with one eye on the world championship, that’s what drives us every morning when we get up.”
What Are The Chances McDermott Is Fired?
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where McDermott is given his walking papers during or after the 2024 season barring a complete disaster.
The Bills have become a model organization after two decades of being a laughing stock. They are a Super Bowl contender every season. They built a culture that’s allowed them to attract free agents. A lot of teams would sign up for that, even without the guarantee of a title.
Make no mistake: McDermott has his work cut out for him in 2024. The offense will likely take time to reach peak form given all the changes. That puts a lot of pressure on his side of the ball (defense) to pick up the slack.
Buffalo’s schedule doesn’t do it many favors either. Its slate is the 10th-toughest in the NFL, per Sharp Football Analysis. Four of the team’s first six games are on the road. So roster uncertainty combined with early road tests could lead to a slow start.
Ultimately, none of those variables should be enough to keep the Bills out of the playoffs. Their roster is still one of the league’s best based on raw talent. They should find a way to nine or 10 wins, even if it’s a sluggish start.
McDermott may face questions about job security if they do miss the postseason. Even in that scenario, however, it would likely take a truly dreadful year to see him get dismissed.
Main Image: Jamie Germano/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK
