The Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams have enjoyed the luxury of drafting Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua outside of the top-100 picks, only for them to become instant stars in the league. Their franchises have been rewarded for their scouting diligence by finding a rookie who had become a top 24 dynasty fantasy football asset by the end of the season.
The NFL Draft Problem: 40-Yards of Disappointment for Amon-Ra St. Brown
The University of Southern California and Amon-Ra St. Brown
The Detroit Lions nabbed University of Southern California wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. At USC, St. Brown immediately revealed he belonged as a starter at that level, which he would show again years later with the Lions. In his first game at L.A. Memorial Coliseum, USC’s home field, St. Brown popped off for seven receptions and 98 yards, recording a 12-yard rush. No previous USC receiver has ever had a better first game. From the get-go, he would be their most electric player, showcased by his 167-yard day against Texas just a few weeks later.
In retrospect, St. Brown should have dressed as a starter in more than five games in 2018. After recording a 1,000-yard season in 2019, St. Brown was an honorable mention All-Pac-12 selection. Once again, he was doubted and underappreciated, and the chip on his shoulder grew. St. Brown averaged 76 yards a game during his three years at USC, an essential statistic given the context of the COVID-shortened 2020 season. He only had 478 yards in his final season, the shortened 2020 COVID season, and earned first-team all-conference accolades. St. Brown would declare for the 2020 NFL draft with the idea of being a late first-round pick.
Detroit Lions and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown was picked apart for his athletic testing during the draft process. An awful showing in the 40-yard dash was a blessing in disguise for both him and Detroit Lions General Manager Brad Holmes. Holmes had come from the Los Angeles Rams, who had drafted Cooper Kupp. Kupp also had a dismal 40-yard dash showing with a 4.62. In an article by Jeffrey Becker at The Athletic, Holmes said, “It was easy to envision with Amon-Ra because we were around Kupp. I’m not saying he’s Kupp, but watching him play, he reminded me of Kupp and Robert Woods. They aren’t the fastest, but they are very quick and sudden, explosive in a short area and physical.”
48 receivers ran a faster 40-yard dash than St. Brown at that combine. St. Brown was a classic case of stats vs film, and he quickly became a film darling. While it was acknowledged that he was a playmaker at USC and had a role in the NFL, teams deemed his ceiling too low to validate using a top-100 pick on him. St. Brown was the 16th wide receiver taken during the 2020 NFL Draft. Famously, he can recite the 16 receivers in order before him, thus abstaining from removing the chip from his shoulder.
Holmes would say, “It’s not about picking a wide receiver. It was about picking that wide receiver… He’s another ass kicker.” This has been proven true since then. During St. Brown’s rookie season with the Detroit Lions, he set an NFL record with eight catches or more and a touchdown in eight straight games. Flash forward to the end of 2023, two 1,000-yard seasons later, and St Brown is a first-team All-Pro.
National Football League and the 40-yard dash
In hindsight, it is shocking to see Amon-Ra St. Brown fall to the fourth round. He was talented, yet 32 NFL franchises passed on him repeatedly. Today, each team would take this star first overall. The problem lies in a reliance on an outdated 40-yard dash. Coach Stokowski, who trains athletes for the 4o-yard dash, said, “It is important to know the difference between “how fast you can get?” and “how fast can you get fast?”. Coach Stokowski’s comments especially ring true for players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua. Both have fantastic short area bursts with an ability to separate naturally. During their draft process, they were perceived as having “very average foot quickness and long speed.” or “Does not have long speed to keep corners from squatting. Lacks instant acceleration to separate“.
If it weren’t for the 40-yard dash, if we had a different measurement of a player’s speed, these star players wouldn’t fall so much in the draft. Giving the 40-yard dash some context is an excellent way to start. This is done by using Miles Per Hour and Burst Score. Burst Score measures a player’s explosiveness by adding Vertical Jump Height and Broad Jump Distance. The Burst Score is important for wide receivers. A strong burst can help receivers gain a quick release off the line, which will help against being redirected by defensive backs and their ability to go up for the ball.
Peer Comparison
Amon-Ra St. Brown (20.59) and Puka Nacua (20.8) had a higher MPH than other prospects like Michael Pittman, Gabe Davis, and Josh Downs, who were all at 20.52 MPH. Other notable receiver prospects from their respective classes are Tank Dell (20.45), Rashee Rice (20.32), CeeDee Lamb (20.19), and Michael Wilson (19.92). They weren’t Jamarr Chase or Henry Ruggs, who scored above 22 MPH but weren’t slow or lacking speed like consensus suggested. When using MPH with BurstScore, you can understand a player’s explosive abilities despite a bad 40-yard dash. St. Brown has a BurstScore of 165.5, which was higher than Justin Jefferson (163.5), Zay Flowers (162.5), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (160), Jordan Addison (156), and Jayden Reed (154.5).
The process of evaluating the athletic potential of these receivers could be better. It is outdated. It’s not the proper process to let a 40-yard dash drive down a prospect, nor is it appropriate to use only MPH or BurstScore. Using only BurstScore, we would have never seen the likes of Puka Nacua, Laquan Treadwell, or Cooper Kupp. However, each was above 20.45 MPH, highlighting an ability to play with speed in the NFL. It is essential to give as much context to these players as possible. NFL players don’t get into a sprinter’s stance before a play in the NFL, and they shouldn’t be judged as such, either. The Lions and the Rams were grateful for their poor workouts because they got a top-10 NFL receiver with a chip on their shoulder.
Main Photo: Junfu Han – USA Today Sports
