The win streak must continue in Week 15 for Denver to make the playoffs. There is no room for error anymore. Especially with the mistake of a loss to the Houston Texans. And especially with the Kansas City Chiefs opening the door to the division. If the Broncos want to step through it, they need to string together more victories. And that opportunity begins now, with a road game in Detroit that is far from easy. But it can be done, the Lions can be beaten. And the Denver Broncos beating the Detroit Lions hinges on this stat.
This Stat Decides The Denver Broncos Beating the Detroit Lions
Too Many Weapons
First of all, the Lions have too many weapons to be completely shut down. The Broncos have won many games by winning the turnover battle and limiting points. That gameplan is still valid, Denver can still win that way. But Detroit can be counted on to move the ball. And so, that can’t be the only focus. Putting cornerback Patrick Surtain II on wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown won’t be quite enough. But that doesn’t mean the concept of limitation is pointless. This will still help the Denver Broncos in beating the Detroit Lions.
It may still be possible to take out Detroit’s weapons. But it will require a thin spread of Broncos defenders. Tight end Sam LaPorta needs a shadow. Running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs need constant attention. And quarterback Jared Goff will need to be rattled. The weapons seem too many, but Denver proves each week that they are up to the task of limiting high-scoring offenses. But that’s not the only point of emphasis. In reality, the Denver Broncos beating the Detroit Lions hinges on this stat.
Not Enough Opportunities
So far this season, the Detroit Lions are 8th in the league converting 3rd Downs, which they do 43% of the time. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos are 21st in the league, converting only 37%. Six percentage points doesn’t seem like a huge difference. But keeping the offense on the field leads to yards, which leads to points. Detroit racks up 403 yards per game, and 26 points. Denver only gets 316 yards per game, and 22 points. Those third-down conversations are allowing Lions players to maintain scoring opportunities. And limiting that is exactly what will lead to the Denver Broncos beating the Detroit Lions.
Denver needs to remove the Detroit offense from the field at a higher than 57% rate. If the Lions only convert a third of their third downs, instead of closer to half, the Broncos stand a strong chance of winning the game. And on the flip side, Denver needs its offense to stay on the field closer to half of their third down conversions, not closer to a third. This will be the difference in the game, as well as turnovers. The Denver Broncos beating the Detroit Lions hinges on removing their offense from the field.
The Denver Broncos Beating the Detroit Lions Hinges On This Stat
Last week, the game plan for the Broncos refocused on the running game, on pounding the ball with Javonte Williams. This week, Denver’s defense will have to force stops and incompletions on third down if they want to win the game. Jared Goff & Co. are far too efficient moving the ball. For quarterback Russell Wilson to be given the same chance, the Lions will have to be removed from the field on third down. If the Broncos can dominate time of possession and conversions, they can get back to their winning streak. And that would make the playoffs a real possibility.
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