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After the Joe Burrow Injury, It’s All About Keeping the Window Open

The world feels like it's ending in Cincy after the Joe Burrow injury. It's time for the team to make a decision on how they want 2023 to go.
Joe burrow injury

For the second time in four years, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury. While this year’s setback is not as devastating as the 2020 knee-shattering, it has put the Bengals in an incredibly tough spot yet again.

Between the preseason calf injury, the slow start, and now this, this year’s Bengals season has been anything but ideal. Cincinnati came into the year with Super Bowl aspirations — and still had a decent shot prior to the injury — and now are in limbo. The team is 5-5 and by no means out of the playoff race but that hill got significantly more steep.

Keeping the Super Bowl Window Open After Joe Burrow’s Injury

Playoffs are Possible…But Improbable

Even with Burrow, the final stretch of the season was going to be difficult. The AFC North is a gauntlet, the Jaguars look good, and the Chiefs are still the Chiefs and will play host to this team on New Year’s Eve.

The biggest thing ahead of the Bengals is whether or not they are going to make a legitimate attempt at the Wild Card or if it’s tanking season. The sheer difficulty of the remaining slate may have already made up their minds, honestly. Regardless, with five wins, the Bengals are out of the running for, say, Marvin Harrison, Jr. or likely Olu Fashanu and Joe Alt. But a player like Brock Bowers, Jaylahn Tuimoloau, Dallas Turner, or J.C. Latham could be worth pumping the breaks on what could be an extended season.

The Bengals roster is strong enough that it could carry Browning to contention. Obviously, “you play to win the game,” but the Bengals need to decide if the team’s Super Bowl window is open longer with a seven or eight-win season as compared to a five-win season.

The argument for trying is simple. You play to win the game. Confidence and morale go a long way when it comes to the players on the roster who may want to extend (Tee Higgins, D.J. Reader, Jonah Williams, etc) for a team that cares and did not throw it all away after one setback. Admittedly, it is a massive setback.

The argument for tanking is also simple. This year’s NFL Draft class has a number of quarterbacks teams will be clamoring for. The Bengals could use their position to either draft a faller (Bowers, Alt, Kool-Aid McKinstry, even) or trade down for a desperate team like the Saints or Vikings (just a suggestion, not saying they are actually desperate…yet) to overpay for a Jayden Daniels-type.

It’s not mock draft season in Cincinnati yet. However, the traffic to PFF’s Mock Draft Simulator has increased in the 513.

This is Jake Browning‘s offense now.

Jake Browning is not Joe Burrow. Sorry to break the news on this holiday weekend.

However, there are positives. The first one is that Joe Mixon is finally going to get his. This year, Mixon has quietly been a solid running back with all of the focus on Burrow and the other weapons. On the year, Mixon has run for 605 yards and four touchdowns off of 153 rushes. His 48.4% rush success rate is second in the NFL among backs with at least 150 rushing attempts.

The problem has been that he does not get much in the Burrow-led offense and for good reason. Are you really going to be the one to take the ball out of Burrow’s hands? Exactly. With Browning at the helm, Mixon should be more run.

When Browning is asked to throw the ball, he’s not going to be able to pick apart defenses as Burrow can. However, with the knowledge that this season is not going to end with Zac Taylor hoisting the Lombardi, the offense could take more risks.

Protecting Joe Burrow (as a playmaker) was not in the Bengals plans. He takes chances and does his best to extend plays and buy time for Ja’Marr Chase and the like to get open. Browning is not the same animal. However, Taylor and company could try to push things with Browning to see what they can do.

Cincinnati is not going to play it safe with Browning because what is there left to lose? Cut it loose.

Time for Difficult Conversations

A perennial AFC contender losing its star quarterback mid-season is not uncommon. Every year, multiple contending teams suffer devastating injuries that derail everything. However, despite that, difficult conversations around the Joe Burrow injury must be had.

The Cincinnati Bengals have made it this far in the Burrow-Taylor era a number of ways. Lou Anarumo’s defense has been fantastic but has looked rough lately. Surely losing Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates is not what is killing the defense’s ability to stop anything. They are great players, that much is true, but that’s not where the issues lie.

However, as concerning as the defense has been of late, there is a much larger concern that is much, much deeper.

Offensive line.

It should come as no surprise that the Bengals have struggled to put together a competent offensive line. Is it coaching? Is it talent? Is it living in an incredibly difficult division with the two pass rushers on the planet? Yes.

When it comes to talent, the Bengals just do not draft well. Since 2012 when they drafted Kevin Zeitler, the only decent offensive lineman they drafted was Jonah Williams. 17 picks since then, only one decent player. Of those 17, five were premium picks (ie, first three rounds) and one was Williams. In 2015, the Bengals struck out twice by spending its first AND second-round picks on tackles…Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher. Yikes.

Whether it’s the fact that the Bengals don’t develop talent or they just don’t scout them well, Cincinnati needs to overhaul its entire process regarding the offensive line. Frank Pollack should not be safe. Any college scouts who focus on the offensive line should not be safe.

The Bengals do not have an athletic offensive line. They are by far the least athletic unit in the NFL, according to RAS.

That implies that everything from draft prep to development to coaching is broken in Cincinnati. It’s going to get more difficult to pay free agents to come to Cincinnati once Burrow’s monster deal kicks in. They have to draft well and get the most out of their cheap labor.

Develop Rookies

Rookies are the future of the franchise. Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs drafted so well that their Super Bowl run was led by them. They drafted 10 players. Eight had legitimate playing time, led by George Karlaftis (730), Trent McDuffie (682), and Jaylen Watson (605). Meanwhile, the Bengals had six draft picks in 2022 and Cordell Volson (1107) and Cam Taylor-Britt (591) led the way.

They drafted for the future in 2022. Dax Hill was never going to be the starting safety until this year. It was expected. Unfortunately, in order to extend the window, the Bengals are going to need to start drafting players who can contribute right away.

Rookie Jordan Battle has seemingly taken control of one of the safety roles and D.J. Turner has stepped in in a solid rotational role. Myles Murphy was always considered a project with a high upside due to his athleticism, so he has not had much of an impact this year (141 snaps thus far; eight tackles and a sack recorded).

This year is going to be all about developing those rookies and evaluating what they need moving forward, especially those premium picks. It will be even more paramount to develop those defensive rookies so that the front office can feel more comfortable using a top pick on an offensive lineman.

2023 has gone from getting back to the AFC Championship/Super Bowl to evaluating what’s next for the club as they continue to build around Burrow. Plain and simple, propping open that Super Bowl window is the priority. Will it be by trying to win and making a run at the Wild Card or will it be by ending the year 5-12 and retooling via the draft? Time will tell.

Main Image: Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Drew Crabtree, NFL Editor

Drew Crabtree, NFL Editor

Drew is the credentialed Ohio State writer for Last Word on College Football and Cincinnati Bengals writer and editor for Last Word on NFL. He is an FWAA Member and Outland Trophy, Lombardi, Maxwell, Nagurski Award, and CFB Hall of Fame voter.

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