It is so exciting to have real, live NFL football back in our lives. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings every week. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 11 DraftKings plays.
READ MORE: Week 11 Streamers
Week 11 DraftKings Plays
Week 10 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s good for the readers and helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week in cash builds!https://t.co/StAoKOMQXh#FantasyFootball#NFL#NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) November 13, 2023
Looking back at Week 10, it was better than Week 9 from a recommendations standpoint. This week only 64% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback group led the way tied at an 80% success rate. Meanwhile, the running back group brought up the rear at a 57.1% success rate. Personally, it was not a profitable week this week. We’ll look to get it going even better with the picks and get back in the profits in the Week 11 DraftKings plays.
- Week 10 – $433 → $248 ($185 LOSS)
- Year Total – $3,816 → $2,952 ($864 LOSS)
Kyler Murray (ARI) – $6,100 @ HOU
Kyler Murray is back! He made his 2023 debut last week returning from last year’s torn ACL and looked better than expected. The production wasn’t quite there but that might be a blessing in disguise that helps keep the salary down this week. Murray still had 18.3 DraftKings points but it could have been much more. He barely missed Marquise Brown for a touchdown and the Arizona Cardinals also brought in backup Clayton Tune for the “tush push” one-yard touchdown rush. Murray didn’t even have a passing touchdown but was still able to approach 20 DraftKings points. In addition to that, he looked just as fast as he’s always been which was one of the biggest question marks coming off a major knee injury. This week he gets a juicy matchup against the Houston Texans. They have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season. This game also has the highest combined total on the slate at 48.5 points. The Cardinals are also 4.5-point underdogs on the road so the projected game script sets up great for more dropbacks and it’s also being played in a dome. It’s a beautiful setup for Murray this week.
I love how narratives change so quickly in Fantasy Football.
Houston-Arizona- a game no one would have cared about two months ago, is now one of the most anticipated fantasy matchups of the entire week.
CJ Stroud and Kyler Murray- get your 🍿 🔥🔥
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) November 16, 2023
Brock Purdy (SF) – $5,800 v TB
Brock Purdy took the league by storm a bit last year after his surprisingly good play and jumping prized prospect Trey Lance to become the starter for the San Francisco 49ers. He’s only continued that play this season. On the season, Purdy has 2,329 passing yards and 15 passing touchdowns with only five interceptions. He’s also chipped in 107 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground. Purdy is currently averaging 19.4 DraftKings points per game this season and yet he’s still priced under $6,000 despite a great matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season. Purdy will also have a full complement of weapons as Deebo Samuel is fully healthy after being banged up for most of the year. The 49ers’ 26.5-point implied team total is tied for the third-highest on the slate. Add it all up and Purdy looks like one of the best Week 11 DraftKings plays at quarterback.
Others to Consider: Sam Howell (WAS) – $6,300 v NYG, Jared Goff (DET) – $6,600 v CHI, Geno Smith (SEA) – $5,900 @ LAR
Tony Pollard (DAL) – $6,600 @ CAR
It’s make-or-break time for Tony Pollard. It’s do-or-die, now-or-never, or whatever saying you prefer. Pollard has been brutally frustrating for fantasy managers starting back in Week 4. After a hot start in which he averaged over 20 DraftKings points per game in the first three weeks, Pollard hasn’t hit 20 DraftKings points in any of the six games since. He’s actually only scored double-digit DraftKings points just once in that span. The promising part of all of this is that Pollard is still getting elite-level usage. His 70% snap share and 57% route participation are both sixth-best in the NFL among all running backs so the Dallas Cowboys are still feeding him the ball. It feels inevitable that he gets back on track sooner rather than later. A date with the Carolina Panthers might just be the cure. The Panthers have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to running backs this season. The Cowboys also have one of the highest implied team totals at 26 points and are 10.5-point favorites despite being on the road. Everything is setting up for Pollard to break out of his current funk and be one of the best Week 11 DraftKings plays at running back.
Devin Singletary (HOU) – $5,300 v ARI
The last two weeks for Devin Singletary are a microcosm of what it’s like plugging in backup running backs. Two weeks ago he scored 4.6 DraftKings points and then followed it up with 26.1 DraftKings points this past week, just as many fantasy managers had hopped off the bandwagon. It’s a true scope of the good and the bad when it comes to running backs, especially backups. This week, Singletary is likely to see the workhorse role once again. Last week he had 30 carries for 150 yards and a touchdown while catching one of his two targets for another 11 yards. Over the last two weeks with Dameon Pierce out, Singletary has a 78% snap share, 55% route participation, and seen 82% of the rushing attempts. Those are truly elite numbers that you can get for a discounted price. As previously mentioned, this is arguably the best game environment on the slate. The Cardinals also haven’t been able to stop the run as they’ve allowed the third-most DraftKings points to running backs this season. Expect Singletary to keep the good times going for at least one more week.
Devin Singletary has been named the AFC Offensive player of the week 🏆
Singletary rushed for 150 yards and scored a touchdown in the win against Cincy 😤 pic.twitter.com/3T44AKG3gS
— Clutch City Entertainment (@ClutchCityENTX) November 15, 2023
Others to Consider: Aaron Jones (GB) – $6,200 v LAC, Chuba Hubbard (CAR) – $4,900 v DAL, James Conner (ARI) – $5,700 @ HOU, Josh Jacobs (LV) – $6,800 @ MIA, Breece Hall (NYJ) – $6,400 @ BUF
Cooper Kupp (LAR) – $8,100 v SEA
Cooper Kupp missed the first four games of the season and watched Puka Nacua dominate during that time. Fantasy managers wondered if Kupp would come back and produce the same way as before given that he was coming off an injury and Nacua emerged. Kupp put that to rest with 22.8 and 30.8 DraftKings points in his first two games back looking just as good as ever. However, over the last 3 games, Kupp has scored just 19.8 DraftKings points total in that span. There is a caveat, however, and that has been that Matthew Stafford has been hurt and missing games in that span. Kupp still saw at least seven targets every game and 24 targets total during those three games and now he gets Stafford back coming off a bye. His price has now dipped to a season-low and that’s something to take advantage of. The matchup should be a nice one as the Los Angeles Rams take on the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks aren’t quite as bad in the secondary as last year but they aren’t good either. The game also has a nice 46.5-point combined total and will be played in a dome so that’s another boost for the passing offenses. The Rams have a solid 22.75-point implied team total and are currently one-point underdogs so the projected game script should favor more pass attempts. Kupp should be in line for a bigger game at a decreased price making him one of the better Week 11 DraftKings plays.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) – $6,400 @ BUF
Fantasy managers knew that once Aaron Rodgers went down we weren’t likely going to see Garrett Wilson reach his full potential this year being hindered by the play of Zach Wilson. While that’s been the case, Garrett Wilson has been respectable this year averaging 14.9 DraftKings points per game. He’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in all but two games and at least eight DraftKings points in every game. Wilson has also scored at least 14 DraftKings points in four straight games. Over that span, he’s caught at least seven passes and topped at least 80 receiving yards in all four. Wilson has also seen at least 12 targets in all four of those games as well. He’s a superstar wide receiver in this league and it’s going to be exciting to see what he can do when he gets better quarterback play. This week the New York Jets take on the Buffalo Bills. The Bills defense hasn’t been quite as good as previous years and Wilson already scored 14.2 DraftKings points against them earlier this year. They should also have to throw early and often as they are currently seven-point underdogs and that should allow Wilson to continue to see the elite volume he’s been seeing on a weekly basis.
Garrett Wilson still pacing for 104 catches and 1,213 yards this season despite, you know
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 16, 2023
Others to Consider: Robert Woods (HOU) – $3,700 v ARI, Rondale Moore (ARI) – $3,300 @ HOU, Tyreek Hill (MIA) – $9,300 v LV, Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) – $8,800 v CHI, Michael Wilson (ARI) – $3,400 @ HOU, Marquise Brown (ARI) – $5,300 @ HOU
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) – $4,900 v NYJ
It’s been a meteoric rise for Dalton Kincaid lately. Since Dawson Knox went down, Kincaid has played three games in a full-time role. He’s scored at least 16.1 DraftKings points in all three of those games and even scored 15.5 DraftKings points the week before (the game in which Knox got hurt). All the underlying metrics back up the production as well. Over the last three games, Kincaid has a 90% route participation, 23% TPRR, and 25% target share. Those are truly elite numbers. It’s a small sample size but compared to other tight ends, Kincaid would rank first in route participation, tied for fifth in TPRR, and tied for first in target share. The Bills are making a point to feature him in the offense at this point. The matchup against the Jets is not one to fear either. The Bills have a solid 23.5-point implied team total. Ultimately, the elite-level usage on one of the best offenses in the NFL makes Kincaid one of the best Week 11 DraftKings plays.
Bills rookie TE Dalton Kincaid has gained +63 receiving yards over expected since Week 7, trailing only George Kittle (+125).
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 16, 2023
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) – $2,500 @ CLE
This one is going to take a bit of monitoring as it’s not a guarantee Pat Freiermuth will play after coming off the IR but it looks like he will as he was a full participant in Thursday’s practice. He had a rough start to the season before going down with an injury. Freiermuth only had eight receptions for 53 yards and two touchdowns combined in the first four games. He was only averaging 6.3 DraftKings points per game so far this season. The matchup is also tough as the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have been the best defense in the NFL this season and have also been the stingiest when it comes to tight end production allowed. Ultimately, this recommendation is all about that sweet price point. Freiermuth is the absolute minimum price any player can be this week and should step into a full-time role. This game has one of the lower combined totals at 32.5 points and the Steelers have a 15-point implied team total so the ceiling might not be there but the floor should be fairly high given the salary. Playing Freiermuth is a high-floor, low-ceiling option (for him specifically) that allows you to jam more high-priced studs into your lineup.
Others to Consider: Evan Engram (JAX) – $4,500 v SF, Trey McBride (ARI) – $4,400 @ HOU, Logan Thomas (WAS) – $3,700 v NYG
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often, which can help lead to extra sacks, turnovers, and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. I advise filling out the rest of your lineup first and then picking your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Brock Purdy
- RB – Devin Singletary
- RB – James Conner
- WR – Tyreek Hill
- WR – Robert Woods
- WR – Rondale Moore
- TE – Trey McBride
- Flex – Christian McCaffrey
- DST – Miami Dolphins
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 11 DraftKings plays and the best picks for Week 12. Best of luck to everyone and let’s enjoy some football and win some money!
Main Image: Joe Rondone / USA TODAY NETWORK