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Music City Musings – Week 6: Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans

The Falcons travel to the Music City in a return home for Arthur Smith on Oilers weekend. Who are the key players, odds, numbers to look for?

The Atlanta Falcons aka the Red Stallions travel to the Music City to take on the reeling Titans in a contestation between familial foes. Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith returns home where he earned his coaching chops. There are numerous ties between both teams, including multiple coaches and players who have coached or played in Tennessee. It’s surprising that these two haven’t met more often. Will familiarity breed contempt or will Sunday be full of reminiscing about the good ole days?

Music City Musings – Week 6: Atlanta Falcons vs Tennessee Titans

Falcons Offense vs. Titans Defense

The Falcons have been inconsistently consistent on offense, to say the least. The team from the Peach State is led by a young Desmond Ridder who’s proven to be just that, a young passer trying to find himself. He has been surrounded by plenty of skill position talent, that’s for sure. A get-right game against the Titans’ woeful pass defense looms as an ignition source.

OL vs. DL Matchups to Watch

Atlanta features a veteran offensive line chock full of highly thought-of linemen per PFF grades. Left tackle Jake Matthews has been a stalwart for ten seasons, manning the left side for several coaches. PFF grades him as the 21st-rated tackle with a score of 73.3. He hasn’t been as dominant in prior years but he’s consistently graded in the 70s for the majority of his career. If there was a weakness for the Titans’ defense to exploit, it’s at left guard as Matthew Bergeron is a rookie. He’ll likely draw the unenviable task of trying to cover the Denico Autry and Teair Tart (if healthy) duo alongside center Drew Dalman. The right side of the Falcons’ line is their biggest strength with guard Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary drawing positive reviews.

Lining up against the highly rated Lindstrom and McGary will be the Titans’ star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and lowly rated EDGE Harold Landry. The pass rusher from Boston College has been unable to perform up to his usual high standards. Tennessee will likely need to help him by moving a linebacker or safety down on passing downs.

Prediction

Both teams’ front lines battle to a standstill or gain a slight advantage either way but it’s close enough to be unable to discern a clear winner.

Skill-on-Skill Matchups to Watch

The Falcons are well-balanced in productivity, much to the chagrin of fantasy football owners everywhere. The situation has escalated to the point that the NFL is asking questions of the organization because of Bijan Robinson’s usage. Coach Smith has been vividly cantankerous fielding questions about the usage of his skill players.

The Falcons’ rushing attack is a three-headed hydra in theory with Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and wily veteran Cordarelle Patterson. Despite the former’s talent and draft status, Robinson and Allgeier are essentially in a timeshare. Patterson saw his most extensive use this past weekend against the Buccaneers due to Robinson being a “healthy active inactive”. Tennessee is pretty stout against the run but hasn’t seen a uniquely set backfield like this during the season to date.

As for Ridder’s receiving options, former first-round selection Drake London leads the way alongside former Titans’ standout Jonnu Smith. Mr. Smith increased his playing time over the much-heralded Kyle Pitts. Mack Hollins might be the secret ingredient that could have a big day as Tennessee focuses on the bigger names. It will be interesting to see how the Titans match up with the power forward-sized receivers now that star safety Kevin Byard isn’t patrolling the back end. Terrell Edmunds is the new guy that came in the trade. Fortunately for Tennessee, Elijah Molden looks to return to action. Roger McCreary is their highest-graded defensive back and is on track to miss the game due to injury.

Titans Offense vs. Falcons Defense

Mike Vrabel won’t publically declare Will Levis the starter but it appears that the rookie signal caller will get the nod over struggling Malik Willis. The Titans’ offense is a unit in disarray and Ryan Tannehill could’ve been usurped due to injury. Atlanta boasts a top half defense so it might be yet another tough slog for Tim Kelly’s men.

OL vs. DL Matchups to Watch

Atlanta’s defense is so remarkably similar to the Titans’ defense in that everything emanates from the interior. Veteran tackle Grady Jarrett remains one of the best at his position in the league. David Onyemata is a nice piece for the Falcons as well. He’s very highly ranked by PFF, earning an 89.9 score to date. The pair will have their hands full against the promising interior of the Titans which has rookie Peter Skoronski and Daniel Brunskill at the guard slots. Longtime veteran Calais Campbell is another name to watch as he’s a familiar face to the Titans through his Jaguars days. Right tackle Chris Hubbard will likely draw the tough matchup against Campbell and former Titan Bud Dupree.

The most interesting revelation coming from the Titans’ camp is that much maligned Andre Dillard has been replaced by Nicholas Petit-Frere at left tackle. He’ll likely go against a combination of Dupree and/or Arnold Ebiketie.

Skill-on Skill Matchups to Watch

Good news could be on the horizon as receiver Treylon Burks is on track to return from injury after missing several weeks. A much-needed presence to relieve the burden on heavily targeted DeAndre Hopkins. Chris Moore looks to be on track to return as well from concussion protocol after taking a vicious and dirty hit from Kyle Hamilton two weeks ago. Unfortunately, Tennessee will likely miss tight end Josh Whyle, who’s still in the protocol. It will be an all-hands-on-deck type of effort as rookie Will Levis takes the reins of the offense. The Falcons’ run defense is a top-ten unit in the league so all eyes will be on Derrick Henry.

Countering the Titans’ weapons will be a formidable secondary that features a prominent safety duo in Jessie Bates III and Richie Grant. The cornerback room is also talented with starters A.J. Terrell and Dee Alford to go with Jeff Okudah. Tennessee had a tough time cracking opposing secondaries even with Tannehill healthy. It will be interesting to see how Tim Kelly schemes open his receivers and backs. Young linebacker Nate Landman has really come on this season as well.

Of course, it could be all rendered moot if the rumors of the Titans shopping Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins come to fruition prior to kickoff.

Weather Report

The Nashville weather is projected to be right in line with normal conditions for late October with a high of 76 degrees with a humidity of 71%. There is an increased chance of rain compared to prior Tennessee games with a 40% rain chance. Winds are predicted to be at eight miles-per-hour blowing in a southwestern direction. Rain has been predicted to hit the area on Sunday morning so it could be a sloppy affair for both teams already featuring inconsistent offenses.

Odds and Ends

Tennessee leads the all-time series by a slim margin of 8-7. Mike Vrabel is 1-0 against Atlanta. The Falcons have won two of the past three matchups. Since the transition to the Titans, Tennessee has won four of the six games. In that time frame, the average scoring margin has been 22.6 to 17 in Tennessee’s favor. Vrabel is 2-3 in contests against the NFC South while Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith is 1-1 against the AFC South this season.

Coaching Connections / Mustache Wars

A total of four assistant coaches under Smith have ties to the Titans including former DC Jerry Gray and LB coach Frank Bush.

Arthur Smith

Smith Part Two

Mike Vrabel

Uniform

The Titans are a lifetime 3-1 against the Falcons in the Oilers home uniforms. Historically, they are 71-53 in those Columbia blue tops, white bottoms, and light blue striped socks. Color-on-color home vs. road uniform matchups are always fun to look at.

Data courtesy of Titans Uni Tracker 

Titans

Falcons

Betting

The Falcons are just 2-5 against the spread while the Titans sport a .500 record at 3-3. Atlanta has gone UNDER in six of the seven games to date. Tennessee has done similar things, going UNDER in five of the six games they have played.

Atlanta is favored by a margin of -2 on the road with a -135 money line. The Titans are home dogs yet again set at +3 with the money line being +125. This is the first time this season that the Falcons have been favored on the road. They have been favorites four times out of the seven games.

The OVER/UNDER has been listed at 36.5 even at press time. It will be very interesting to see either team try to reach the over given the circumstances. The Falcons have struggled to score, posting 16.4 points per game but they have a top-ten-stop unit, allowing just 19 points per game. Tennessee is reportedly starting a rookie quarterback with very little practice time. Both teams have been iconic for going under throughout the season. This is a perfectly built scenario for the UNDER to occur. Hammer the under as they say in young people’s parlance.

Main Photo: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

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