It is so exciting to have real, live NFL football back in our lives. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 4 DraftKings plays.
Week 4 DraftKings Plays
Week 3 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week in cash builds!#FantasyFootball#NFL #NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) September 25, 2023
Looking back at Week 4, it was pretty great and even better than Week 3. This week 68% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback group led the way tied at a 100% success rate. Meanwhile, the tight end group brought up the rear tied at a 20% success rate. Personally, I got back in the profits. We’ll look to get it going even better with the picks and get even better profits in the Week 4 DraftKings plays.
- Week 3 – $312 → $587 ($275 PROFIT)
- Year Total – $799 → $785 ($14 LOSS)
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – $8,000 v WAS
There is a good amount of value at other positions and not necessarily a huge value play at quarterback this week. That combo makes it a perfect week to spend up at quarterback and there aren’t many better than Jalen Hurts. Hurts hasn’t been going crazy like he did last year but he’s still averaging 20.5 DraftKings points per game. He’s also scored 21.9 and 26.2 DraftKings points in his last two games. Hurts has scored three rushing touchdowns over the last two games and he’s averaging more than 10 rushing attempts per game this season.
Simply put, he’s a truly elite rushing quarterback, with elite rushing volume, in an elite Philadelphia Eagles offense. This week’s matchup against the Washington Commanders is nothing to fear either. The Eagles have one of the higher implied team totals at 26 points and are huge 8.5-point favorites. Hurts makes perfect sense when spending up at quarterback.
I can’t stop watching this play.
Maybe one of Jalen Hurts’ best plays as a true quarterback in his young career.pic.twitter.com/neVlZK4NaZ
— Kendall Beck (@KBeckEagles) September 26, 2023
Russell Wilson (DEN) – $5,800 @ CHI
Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos have been the butt of a lot of jokes but he’s actually been better in fantasy than most people probably realize. He’s currently averaging 21.4 DraftKings points per game, which is the seventh-most among all quarterbacks so far this season. It hasn’t always been pretty but Wilson’s been finding ways to get it done for fantasy purposes.
It helps when the Broncos’ defense looks like one of the worst in the league, as evidenced by the 70 points dropped on them last week, forcing him to play catch-up more often. That leads to more fantasy points which is all that matters. This week Wilson gets a much easier matchup against the Chicago Bears. The Bears have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year. This game seems fairly ugly, but at this discounted price, Russell Wilson looks like one of the better Week 4 DraftKings plays.
Others to Consider: Kenny Pickett (PIT) – $5,100 @ HOU, Brock Purdy (SF) – $5,900 v ARI, Anthony Richardson (IND) – $6,700 v LAR
Tony Pollard (DAL) – $7,800 v NE
It’s pretty incredible and frankly shocking to me that Tony Pollard’s price has gone down considering what he’s done so far. On the season he’s averaging 20.1 DraftKings points per game. He’s scored at least 18.1 points in all three games and had at least 16 touches in all three as well. Over Pollard’s last two games, it’s been even more extreme as he’s carried the ball 48 times and caught 10 of his 11 targets. That’s 58 touches over just the last two games and he’s produced well and yet the price still went down? This is certainly something for us to take advantage of.
The matchup this week against the New England Patriots is not one to fear either. They have allowed the 12th-most DraftKings points to running backs so far in 2023. This could be the last week that his price is under that $8,000 threshold for the rest of the season so take advantage of that.
Kyren Williams (LAR) – $6,000 @ IND
Speaking of insane workloads, Kyren Williams might have the most insane one in the NFL right now. He leads all running backs in both snap share (86%) as well as route participation (78%). Only two other running backs are even at 80% snap share and only three others break the 70% route participation threshold. Sean McVay has made mentions of scaling back Williams’ workload, but until that actually happens it should be assumed that he’s going to continue to see a massive workload. Even when it does get scaled back, it could still be an elite level.
The price on Williams certainly hasn’t caught up to the workload either. This week is a nice game context too as the Los Angeles Rams take on the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are a middle-of-the-road defense but have been able to play fast and put up points when Anthony Richardson has been healthy. This game is also being played in a dome so it helps to take out weather factors. Considering the workload at this price, Williams looks to be one of the best Week 4 DraftKings plays.
Kyren Williams is a smash play in Week 4 🔥 pic.twitter.com/7oTAAnneJD
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) September 29, 2023
Others to Consider: Christian McCaffrey (SF) – $9,200 v ARI, Javonte Williams (DEN) – $5,500 @ CHI, Alexander Mattison (MIN) – $5,800 @ CAR, Josh Jacobs (LV) – $7,100 @ LAC, Rachaad White (TB) – $5,600 @ NO
Davante Adams (LV) – $8,000 @ LAC
As mentioned weekly, attacking the Los Angeles Chargers games is a great way to go so far this year. This week, Davante Adams gets his turn at decimating this defense. On top of that, the rumors of Adams’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. He’s currently averaging 26.1 DraftKings points per game so far. Adams’ 36% TPRR ranks second to only Tyreek Hill among full-time wide receivers. His 49% air yards share trails only Hill and Mike Evans.
It’s safe to say that Adams is still good at the game. He’s also coming off a monster 45.2-point game. There is some concern as Jimmy Garoppolo may miss this game with a concussion but backup Brian Hoyer is a veteran that should lean on Adams early and often regardless. In this matchup against the Chargers, they have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to wide receivers so far this season. This game will also be played in a dome which is a boost to the passing games of both teams. Add it all up and Adams looks like one of the best Week 4 DraftKings plays this week and it’s a bit shocking his price isn’t closer to Hill and Justin Jefferson.
𝐖𝐑 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐧𝐚𝐩 💰
𝘗𝘦𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘯𝘢𝘱𝘴 𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢 𝘛𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘰𝘳 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘺
(Data via: @FTNFantasy)
Davante Adams 23.7%
Puka Nacua 22.4%
Keenan Allen 21.1%
Justin Jefferson 20.5%
Deebo Samuel 19.3%… pic.twitter.com/Xkol3wVYfq
— Jeremy (@PopesFFH) September 29, 2023
Adam Thielen (MIN) – $4,500 v MIN
Who doesn’t love a good “revenge game” narrative? That’s really not the reason for this pick but it does add some extra motivation for Adam Thielen taking on his old team. Thielen was expected to be an afterthought this season after leaving the Minnesota Vikings and going to a rebuilding Carolina Panthers team, but he didn’t get that memo so far.
He has scored 34.5 and 20.4 DraftKings points in the last 2 games. He did so by catching 18 of his 23 targets for 199 yards and two scores. The Vikings’ secondary has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to wide receivers so far. One interesting factor will be the return of rookie Bryce Young. Thielen had his best game last week with veteran backup Andy Dalton so it will be interesting to see if Young can keep the good times going for Thielen against his old squad. Either way, at this low salary, it’s worth the risk to find out.
Others to Consider: Jakobi Meyers (LV) – $5,500 @ LAC, Keenan Allen (LAC) – $7,900 v LV, Marquise Brown (ARI) – $5,000 @ SF, Joshua Palmer (LAC) – $4,000 v LV, Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) – $7,800 @ TEN, Tank Dell (HOU) – $4,600 v PIT
Dallas Goedert (PHI) – $4,400 v WAS
It hasn’t happened yet but it’s only a matter of time before Dallas Goedert has a big game. He’s a key piece of this high-powered Eagles offense and has stayed heavily involved outside of a weird opening week. Goedert has seven targets in each of the last two games. Despite that, this is probably the lowest his salary has been (and probably will be) for some time now. It’s likely due to the fact that he’s only averaging 5.8 DraftKings points per game so far. Don’t worry about that and don’t worry about the matchup against the Commanders either. As previously mentioned, the Eagles are 8.5-point favorites with a 26-point implied team total. The fact that Goedert is very involved in one of the best offenses in the NFL and is this cheap makes him one of the best Week 4 DraftKings plays.
TE Utilization & Efficiency, Weeks 1-3
– Better days ahead for Dallas Goedert in full-time role w/ ok ADOT / TPRR. Hope for some more downfield shots
– Top 3 TEs in TPRR: Kelce, LaPorta 👀, and…Zach Ertz🥴
– Chalking up Smythe's decreased role to injury / blowout vs. DEN pic.twitter.com/RSyximb7fH
— Sam Sherman (@Sherman_FFB) September 29, 2023
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) – $3,400 @ HOU
Heading into 2023 Pat Freiermuth was a very popular breakout pick at the tight end position. So far it hasn’t happened quite that way. He’s struggled a bit averaging only 7.2 DraftKings points per game. He’s only caught five balls for 46 yards across three games so far and has been saved by two touchdowns to this point. It’s a bit surprising considering the Pittsburgh Steelers are without Diontae Johnson currently. His most recent game was encouraging though and where he put up basically all his production.
This week’s matchup against the Houston Texans is a juicy one as well. The Texans are not a good defense in general and have allowed the 10th-most DraftKings points to tight ends so far. They are also an offense that passes a lot and likes to push the pace, which should bode well for both offenses. This game is also being played in a dome as well, another nice boost to passing offenses. Freiermuth is also cheaper than usual because of his current production so take advantage while you still can.
Others to Consider: Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) – $3,100 v CIN, Zach Ertz (ARI) – $3,200 @ SF, Dalton Schultz (HOU) – $3,200 v PIT
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. My advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Jalen Hurts
- RB – Tony Pollard
- RB – Kyren Williams
- WR – Davante Adams
- WR – Jakobi Meyers
- WR – Adam Thielen
- TE – Pat Freiermuth
- Flex – Joshua Palmer
- DST – Cleveland Browns
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 4 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 5. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
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Main Photo: Stephen Sylvanie – USA Today Sports