The 2023 Commanders schedule will be difficult. Washington will play six games against the strong NFC East, four games against the elite AFC East, and four games against the top-heavy NFC West. Due to their fourth-place result in the division last season, the Commanders drew an additional three games against fellow last-place finishers Chicago, Atlanta, and Denver. Here is a stab at a Commanders record prediction:
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Commanders Record Prediction
Week 1: vs. Arizona Cardinals
This has to be a win. Kyler Murray is starting the season on the PUP list, and the Cardinals released his presumed replacement less than two weeks before the season. They’re projected to hold two top-ten picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. Arizona wants to lose and Washington wants to win. Don’t mess this up.
Prediction: Win 31-15 (1-0)
Week 2: at Denver Broncos
The game will be played a mile above sea level. Sean Payton is in town to bring back the old (young?) Russell Wilson. It’d be easy to overlook Denver after a confidence-boosting win, with Buffalo coming to town in week three. But Wilson’s receiving corps is decimated and star running back Javonte Williams is prematurely rushing back from a multi-ligament tear in his knee. The Broncos offense doesn’t inspire fear.
Javonte Williams is back, but is he 100%? @ProFootballDoc shares his analysis of Williams as he works his way back from a multi-ligament tear. #broncoscountry
Watch: https://t.co/FRRnyd25d3 pic.twitter.com/tNxrdo2vg9
— Sports Injury Central (@SICscore) August 22, 2023
Prediction: Win 24-21 (2-0)
Week 3: vs. Buffalo Bills
This is where things get difficult. Buffalo returned the majority of their 13-3 core roster from last season. Josh Allen and the Bills are favored in 13-of-17 games again this year, and for good reason. They’ll be Super Bowl hopefuls for a fourth straight season.
Prediction: Loss 35-17 (2-1)
Week 4: at Philadelphia Eagles
Facing Buffalo and Philly in back-to-back weeks will be an excellent test for young quarterback Sam Howell. Speaking of Super Bowl hopefuls: no team got closer to the promised land than Philadelphia did last season. After riding Heinicke Heroics to a shocking upset over the undefeated Eagles in 2022, the Commanders won’t be so lucky this time.
Prediction: Loss 35-21 (2-2)
Week 5: vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears are many analysts’ young-up-and-coming-sleeper-team for 2023. To the point that it’s probably smart to fade the crowd. Quarterback Justin Fields is expected to take the third-year leap and the offense added explosive D.J. Moore to a previously anemic receiver group. The defense is still Swiss cheese. It should be another barn burner like last year.
Prediction: Win 27-24 (3-2)
Week 6: at Atlanta Falcons
This will be a fun matchup between two young teams with sophomore quarterbacks at the helm. Howell and Desmond Ridder will be forever linked and compared to one another. Howell will win the first data point.
Prediction: Win 21-20 (4-2)
Week 7: at New York Giants
Daniel Jones always seems to play his best football against Washington, boasting a combined record of 5-1-1 in his four NFL seasons. Four of his last five matchups, however, have been decided by three points or less. The Commanders will be looking to avenge a crushing Week 15 loss last season. They’ll come up short this time.
Prediction: Loss 30-24 (4-3)
Week 8: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles simply have a better roster. Potentially the best roster top-to-bottom in the entire NFL. Yet, somehow Howie Roseman still found a way to add arguably the best 2023 draft class in the league. The rich got richer. It should be a closer game at home, but Philadelphia is just too talented.
Prediction: Loss 31-27 (4-4)
Week 9: at New England Patriots
This isn’t the same New England Patriots team of years past. The 2023 version will rely on elite defense at all three levels, a Rhamondre Stevenson-led rushing attack, and a well-managed passing game from Mac Jones. Free agent additions Mike Gesicki and JuJu Smith-Schuster should add some juice through the air, but they won’t be able to keep pace with McLaurin and Dotson.
Prediction: Win 24-17 (5-4)
Week 10: at Seattle Seahawks
Shootout potential. Both defenses were prone to give up big plays last season, and both offenses have explosive downfield playmakers. This could be one of the pendulum games for the Commanders. A win could put them firmly in the hunt for the playoffs and 10+ wins. A loss would put a lot of pressure on the following two divisional games.
Prediction: Loss 38-35 (5-5)
Week 11: vs. New York Giants
For an accurate Commanders record prediction, it’s essential to have a good grasp of the divisional hierarchy. Washington will likely split the season series with the Giants. The teams are so evenly matched that home-field advantage really might be the tiebreaker.
Prediction: Win 28-20 (6-5)
Week 12: at Dallas Cowboys
Washington will play both the Eagles and Giants twice before facing the Cowboys for the first time. These two late-season matchups could flip the NFC East standings on its head. This primetime Thanksgiving game will be the most televised performance of Sam Howell’s career. He did just fine against the Cowboys on a big stage last year. It’ll be close.
Prediction: Loss 28-27 (6-6)
Week 13: vs. Miami Dolphins
The Commanders will have 10 days after Thanksgiving to prep for the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. That’s still not enough time. Emmanuel Forbes is the fastest cornerback on the roster (4.35s 40-yard dash), but he’s a rookie. Benjamin St. Juste (4.55s) and Kendall Fuller (4.48s) will have a perfect view for Waddle’s penguin dance.
Prediction: Loss 33-28 (6-7)
Week 14: BYE
Prediction: Win 0-0
Week 15: at Los Angeles Rams
The Commanders are fortunate to play two of the NFL’s worst teams this season. The Rams and Cardinals will be battling it out for NFC West toilet bowl supremacy. This is a potential trap game after a very tough stretch (and a bye week), but it would be hard to lose this one. Sean McVay may have even shut down Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald by now.
Prediction: Win 30-13 (7-7)
Week 16: at New York Jets
The 2023 Hard Knocks darlings should be much improved this season. Out goes Zach Wilson, and in comes Aaron Rodgers. The defense will be very good. But it’s far from a foregone conclusion that Rodgers will immediately mesh with his new team in year one. They should have most things figured out by Week 16, but the edge goes to Washington.
Prediction: Win 26-23 (8-7)
Week 17: vs. San Francisco 49ers
Kyle Shanahan turned some heads by throwing all of his eggs into Mr. Irrelevant’s basket. Brock Purdy rushed back from a UCL repair and re-assumed his position at the top of the quarterback pecking order. He inherits a top-five defense and one of the most intimidating skill position groups in the NFL. The 49ers are a good bet to reach the NFC Championship game again.
Prediction: Loss 28-17 (8-8)
Week 18: vs. Dallas Cowboys
A home/away split feels likely with both the Giants and Cowboys. After losing on Thanksgiving, Washington will look to exact revenge in a game with likely playoff implications. This would be a job-saving win for Ron Rivera. A loss could seal his fate.
Prediction: Win 31-21 (9-8)
Final Commanders Record Prediction: 9-8 (Wildcard Appearance)
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