The Los Angeles Chargers returned to the playoffs last year with a 10-7 record but were sent home in the first round after a historic collapse against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The response was them firing offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and hiring Kellen Moore. Now the Chargers will look to top last year’s performance with Herbert in the final year of his rookie deal. He’s already inked his mega-extension, but this will limit the number of high-dollar players after that, which makes this an important year for the Chargers. Will they be able to meet expectations?
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2023 Los Angeles Chargers Record Projection
Week 1: vs Miami Dolphins
The season kicks off at home with a showdown with the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa. These two have been compared against each other heavily after both going early in the 2020 NFL Draft. These two teams met late last season, and the Chargers won; despite missing some key defensive starters, they kept the Dolphins offense at bay. It’s quite possible we see a more high-scoring affair this time, but an even more healthy Chargers team should be able to get the job done again.
Prediction: Chargers win, 1-0 record
Week 2: @ Tennessee Titans
The Chargers first road game goes against the Titans. The main concern here should be Derrick Henry, who remains one of the best runners in the league. The passing offense was more shaky last year, and bringing in a no-longer-elite DeAndre Hopkins may not solve that so easily. This is another game that the Chargers won late last season – and that was while scoring only 17 points. With an offense that’s expected to be more aggressive this year, they should be able to top that number – and in so doing, come away with the win.
Prediction: Chargers win, 2-0 record
Week 3: @ Minnesota Vikings
Folks are a little down on the Vikings right now because they won most of their games last year by the skin of their teeth – and went one and done in the playoffs. However, this is still an electric pass offense, and going from Dalvin Cook to Alexander Mattison shouldn’t hurt them much, if at all. The Chargers will have their work cut out for them trying to cover Justin Jefferson. The Chargers should be expected to lose at least a game or two on the road against a tough opponent – this seems like the most likely non-divisional opponent for that to happen. The Vikings may not be able to control games, but they should not be underestimated.
Prediction: Chargers lose, 2-1 record
Week 4: vs Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are looking to be the weakest link in the AFC West right now. Granted, there’s still Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs to contend with, but Jimmy Garoppolo is arguably a step down from Derek Carr. And outside of the edge rushers, their defense looks downright horrible. Unless the Chargers offensive line is decimated by injuries, the Chargers should be able to take care of business at home against their rival.
Prediction: Chargers win, 3-1 record
Week 6: vs Dallas Cowboys
Kellen Moore will get the opportunity here for a revenge game against the team that fired him. The Cowboys don’t seem to have improved their state of affairs much – they hired Brian Schottenheimer to be their new offensive coordinator, and it’s fair to say he only keeps getting jobs because of his last name – not unlike Joe Lombardi, the OC the Chargers just fired. There’s enough talent on the Cowboys roster that it will likely be close, but the Chargers should be able to manage the win.
Prediction: Chargers win, 4-1 record
Week 7: @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs remain the toughest opponent here – both as the Super Bowl champions and as their main competitive rival in the AFC West. The Chiefs swept them last year, but both games were close per the usual – and there’s no telling how the first one would’ve gone if Herbert hadn’t gotten hurt. At any rate, I will go the route I usually go for this quarterback duel – predict a series split, with the home team winning each round.
Prediction: Chargers lose, 4-2 record
Week 8: vs Chicago Bears
Out of all the primetime games the Chargers are slated to play this year, this might be the easiest non-divisional matchup on the slate. This team finished at the bottom of the league for a reason last year, and unless Justin Fields takes significant steps forward as a passer, they probably won’t be a whole lot better this year. Fields might be able to keep things interesting in this game, but this should be a manageable win in the end.
Prediction: Chargers win, 5-2 record
Week 9: @ New York Jets
It’s worth remembering that the Jets would almost certainly have been a playoff team last year – if they had gotten even average quarterback play from Zach Wilson, who started half of their games. Aaron Rodgers may be past his prime, but with basic competency quarterbacking and a bevy of weapons to go along with that fearsome defense, the Jets should be a formidable opponent. This will be one of the bigger tests for the offense all season – and playing on the road at the opposite coast doesn’t help matters.
Prediction: Chargers lose, 5-3 record
Week 10: vs Detroit Lions
This will be an interesting matchup. The Lions caught fire last year midway through the season, and if that trend continues into this year, they may be one of the tougher non-divisional opponents to contend with for the Chargers. Brandon Staley will have his hands full against a team that seems to have bought fully into what its coach (Dan Campbell) is selling. Still, on paper, I give the Chargers roster the edge.
Prediction: Chargers win, 6-3 record
Week 11: @ Green Bay Packers
After a couple of tough matchups, the Chargers will get an easier one via the Packers. The toughest part here will be stopping the run. Jordan Love may do his best, but this receiving corps looks quite weak for Green Bay this year. The key here will be to get out to an early lead; if the Packers are unable to use the run much, that will make it much easier for the Chargers to seal the win.
Prediction: Chargers win, 7-3 record
Week 12: vs Baltimore Ravens
Given Lamar Jackson’s frequent late-season injuries, it’s anybody’s guess as to whether he’ll even be available for this game. But assuming he is, this has been a tough opponent for the Chargers to deal with in the past. The Ravens defense has shut down the Chargers offense before, and if the outside run defense isn’t improved, that could cause problems as well. This could be a tough one for the Chargers – even if the Ravens don’t end up being elite this year, they have simply proved to be a tough matchup for the Chargers in the past.
Prediction: Chargers lose, 7-4 record
Week 13: @ New England Patriots
This will be an interesting matchup – Bill Belichick’s defense is typically tough to deal with, but the offense is not what it used to be. Without the Patriots having a solid quarterback or supporting cast, the Chargers should be able to manage this win just by strength of offense, even if they get slowed up a bit by Belichick’s defense.
Prediction: Chargers win, 8-4 record
Week 14: vs Denver Broncos
The Broncos are a team that have the potential to go either way this year. Russell Wilson may not be what he once was, but new head coach Sean Payton and a tough defense could help turn the ship around. That said, unless Wilson does return to form, it may prove difficult for them to outscore the Chargers offense.
Prediction: Chargers win, 9-4 record
Week 15: @ Las Vegas Raiders
Because of how volatile matchups between divisional opponents can be, it wouldn’t be impossible for an upset to happen here. However, this Raiders team is looking shaky enough right now that this could just as easily end up being a sweep – for the reasons mentioned in the earlier Raiders matchup.
Prediction: Chargers win, 10-4 record
Week 16: vs Buffalo Bills
This is the most likely other matchup on the slate outside of the Chiefs to be a barn-burner. Justin Herbert and Josh Allen at the height of their powers should truly be a sight to see. It will also be the opportunity for the Chargers to make a late-season statement in the AFC. It’s too bad that, seeing as it’s a Peacock exclusive, it’ll be one of the lowest-viewed primetime games of the year.
Prediction: Chargers win, 11-4 record
Week 17: @ Denver Broncos
Even assuming the Broncos don’t make a turnaround this year, there is still definitely the potential for an upset given the previously mentioned volatility of divisional games, as well as having to contend with Payton and that tough defense. It may seem odd to predict a win over the juggernaut Bills and then losing to the Broncos the very next week… but that feels exactly like the sort of thing the Chargers would do.
Prediction: Chargers lose, 11-5 record
Week 18: vs Kansas City Chiefs
Depending on where both teams are seeding-wise at this point in the season, we could see one or both teams sitting their starters. Then again, Brandon Staley chose not to do so in that very situation last year until the third quarter, and it proved controversial. At any rate, even assuming both teams have something to play for, I’m giving the home win to the Chargers as they split the season series with the Chiefs and go into the playoffs on a high note.
Prediction: Chargers win, 12-5 record
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