In fantasy football, the only thing more frustrating than a tight end are kickers and defenses. Hayden Hurst is tied to a Heisman-winning quarterback, with one of the easiest schedules in the league. His fantasy football outlook should be rainbows and sunshine, but is he a trap?
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Hayden Hurst Fantasy Football Outlook
Past Performance
Hurst is a freak athlete among freak athletes. He was a first-round pick in the NFL Draft, but also a 17th-round pick in the MLB draft. He had a slow start to his career in Baltimore, posting less than nine fantasy points per game in his first two seasons. He moved on to the Atlanta Falcons, where he posted a career season in 2020. He caught 56 passes for 571 yards and six touchdowns on his way to a TE9 finish, the highest of his career to date.
The Falcons selected Kyle Pitts top ten in 2021, and Hurst found himself on the outside looking in. As a result, he went to the Cincinnati Bengals and found himself on the receiving end of Joe Burrow and a top-tier offense. Even in one of the ideal scenarios in the NFL, Hurst still only finished as the TE21. If he can’t perform with one of the top ten players in the league, what’s he going to do in a new offense?
Current Situation
Hurst was clearly a priority free agent for the Carolina Panthers. This offseason he signed a three-year, 21.75 million dollar deal to be Bryce Young’s safety blanket. The team is currently devoid of weapons for Young, and they are searching for their identity on offense early in Young’s career.
The list of players that Hurst will compete with for targets causes optimism. Adam Thielen is closer to becoming an announcer than going to another Pro Bowl. Jonathan Mingo is a raw rookie who could be a stud in 2024, but in 2023 he needs some serious refinement. D.J. Chark may very well be the team’s best receiver right now, and he hasn’t topped 1,000 yards since 2019. Hurst may emerge as Bryce Young’s favorite target, just by a lack of competition.
Projection and Price
One of Hurst’s biggest bonuses is his price. In most one-tight-end leagues, he’s completely free. According to ESPN’s live ADP, he is the TE28 right now. Is the Hayden Hurst fantasy football outlook good enough he’s worth it?
Given his cost, he’s almost sure to outperform his ADP. Unfortunately for fantasy, he’s unlikely to make a week-to-week difference unless the league settings are strange. Rookie quarterbacks seriously hamstring their pass-catchers, and no matter how good Young might be, a top-ten finish for Hurst is out of reach.
In a two-tight-end league, he is worth a swing as a second tight end late. But in most standard leagues, he is better left on waivers or used as a desperation bye-week fill-in. Best-case scenario, he falls in for a touchdown. Worst case scenario, he finishes with less than five points and loses a week for a fantasy football squad. Avoid Hurst unless absolutely necessary.
Main Photo Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
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